PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Jono

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
enjoying members' very nice discussions and debates.
TW reunification is a highly emotional, sensitive, and controversial issue, after all that is said and done, TW people are of Chinese descent. Avoiding too much casualty and bloodshed when reunification does occur is in my humble opinion very important.
taking the lesson from Emperor Qin Shihuang. Yes, by continuing to employ very strict draconian means of governance in Qin, he succeeded in unifying the whole of China. But he failed to relax those draconian laws afterward leading to widespread dissent throughout the Empire and Qin fell soon after his death. My point is that it is very hard to govern when you have widespread grassroots dissent and alienation.
When the Han dynasty was established, the first thing Emperor Liu Bang did was declare a general amnesty and cancellation of heavy taxes to gain goodwill among the population. The other Dynasty founders usually followed this principle for long-lasting peace and prosperity.
Hence my argument for benevolent governance toward the TW people, and avoiding unnecessary and excessive bloodshed during the reunification is a pre-requisite for success in restoring public order once the fighting is over.
 
escobar

escobar

Brigadier
Shaolian said:
I think it's safe to say that China's leaders are not in a hurry to resort to a forced reunification. The problem is, will the United States be as patient? The clock is ticking for the US to use its military, which is their last remaining realistic option to derail China's ascendency.

After 10-20 years, this window of opportunity will be completely shut for the US. When would the American elites think is a good moment to make that move?
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
5unrise said:
Honestly, one main reason for the rise of DPP is the poor economic prospects for the young people in Taiwan, and this has been going on for a decade now. Young people come out of university with a degree that often does not get used, and many have to resort to making bubble tea or selling cheap clothing in flea markets. Meanwhile, property prices keep going up, and there is no way they can afford to own their own homes. Taiwan is prosperous, yes, but the prosperity is uneven and unequal across generations. DPP promised to bring social equality and reduce the priviledges of the business community, many of which has mainland ties.
In fact, the disdain of mainland China can be seen as an evolution of the disdain of the wealthy business community among the socially and economically dejected youth, and certain disadvantaged classes of society in general. Mainland China is the backer of the businesses that, in their view, is not bringing about prosperity in a way that benefits them. So, one can argue that, the more Tsai's policies hurt the business community, the more she is actually feeding red meat to her core constituency. Her core voters are not that concerned by economic issues, I guess so long as living standards do not fall to India or some poor African state.
In this vein, I think any moves aimed by the mainland aimed at hurting Taiwan's business community, for example by restricting the flow of imports or tourism services, is counterproductive. These moves hurt the segments of society that tends to support more mainland integration, and is ignored or even savoured by the radical elements.
As an aside, the N word is not appropriate to describe Taiwan. It is not like that.
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The DPP is the Trump of Taiwan, and the TW youths share the same mentality as the Trump worshippers. The DPP is not going to solve TW's economic problems, they will only be enriching themselves.

As long as TW does not cross China's red line, China can afford to wait.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
You say this but Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire longer than US existed as a nation. Ukrainians ruled the USSR with Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev all being Ukrainian, not Russian. Even Zelensky himself speaks Russian as a first language.

Yet here we are with Ukraine vs Russia. West worship is a hell of a drug.
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Ukraine is another civil war. This is not simply Ukraine vs. Russia, it is West Ukraine vs. East Ukraine as well. Maidan revolution/coup was a failure of democracy contrary to popular Western belief. Half the country's voting rights were essentially lost. This fact is too easily overlooked. Identity is not at the heart of the conflict.

Please find me the Taiwanese who are willing to die to create the "Republic of Taiwan". People won't even join the military voluntarily. Being airsoft warriors is great for the news, but if this is what is in their hearts, why aren't they showing it? If Taiwan declared independence and smashed the PLA, it would probably spell the end of the CPC. If they are so great and ready to die, what more worthy of a cause (to them) is there? It's all talk. As @solarz said, the ball is in their court, but all I see is Ben Simmons.
 
M

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
Ukraine is another civil war. This is not simply Ukraine vs. Russia, it is West Ukraine vs. East Ukraine as well. Maidan revolution/coup was a failure of democracy contrary to popular Western belief. Half the country's voting rights were essentially lost. This fact is too easily overlooked. Identity is not at the heart of the conflict.

Please find me the Taiwanese who are willing to die to create the "Republic of Taiwan". People won't even join the military voluntarily. Being airsoft warriors is great for the news, but if this is what is in their hearts, why aren't they showing it? If Taiwan declared independence and smashed the PLA, it would probably spell the end of the CPC. If they are so great and ready to die, what more worthy of a cause (to them) is there? It's all talk. As @solarz said, the ball is in their court, but all I see is Ben Simmons.
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Yep, it really is a West Ukraine vs East Ukraine, but the 'problem' is that they both have their backers, and in this case one side personally got deeply involved (Russia) while the other is also backing their side but not as much (no actual NATO troops, sure there's 'foreign legions', but they really don't have heavy weaponry).

What's more the west/east split is there for many reason, one can just look at various pictures of the split in people speaking Ukrainian vs Russian, as well as how there's a split in economics (one earning money from trade with the west/EU and the other earning money with trade with Russia, which happens to kind of follow the language divide as well).
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Michaelsinodef said:
Yep, it really is a West Ukraine vs East Ukraine, but the 'problem' is that they both have their backers, and in this case one side personally got deeply involved (Russia) while the other is also backing their side but not as much (no actual NATO troops, sure there's 'foreign legions', but they really don't have heavy weaponry).

What's more the west/east split is there for many reason, one can just look at various pictures of the split in people speaking Ukrainian vs Russian, as well as how there's a split in economics (one earning money from trade with the west/EU and the other earning money with trade with Russia, which happens to kind of follow the language divide as well).
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Just expanding, but I remember when Maidan happened, I would see interviews with eastern Ukrainians, they would say things like "I am Ukrainian too, why doesn't anyone care how we feel?", so this is a matter of oppression, not identity.

This is simply not happening between mainland and Taiwan. As mentioned above, if anything, Taiwanese business greatly benefits from mainland ties (even if it is not well distributed within society). Taiwan STEM grads are highly recruited by mainland companies to the point where laws are passed to restrict them. It is extremely difficult to say mainland China has taken away anything from people in Taiwan. DPP tried this with the BioNTech vaccines, but it was total embarrassment because no one believed them (except westerners, they really bought the story with their whole heart at the expense of their brain).
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Michaelsinodef said:
Yep, it really is a West Ukraine vs East Ukraine, but the 'problem' is that they both have their backers, and in this case one side personally got deeply involved (Russia) while the other is also backing their side but not as much (no actual NATO troops, sure there's 'foreign legions', but they really don't have heavy weaponry).
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And the reason Russia is deeply involved while NATO is only providing weapons is because Ukraine is a core interest of Russia, while it is only a peripheral interest for NATO. That's how nuclear calculus works: you don't risk MAD for peripheral interests.

This is the same situation for Taiwan, it's a core interest for China. This is why I do not believe US and China will come into direct conflict over Taiwan. China has seen NATO back down when Russia played the nuclear card. China will be expanding its nuclear arsenal, and once ready, will drop the NFU policy for matters of territorial integrity.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
solarz said:
And the reason Russia is deeply involved while NATO is only providing weapons is because Ukraine is a core interest of Russia, while it is only a peripheral interest for NATO. That's how nuclear calculus works: you don't risk MAD for peripheral interests.

This is the same situation for Taiwan, it's a core interest for China. This is why I do not believe US and China will come into direct conflict over Taiwan. China has seen NATO back down when Russia played the nuclear card. China will be expanding its nuclear arsenal, and once ready, will drop the NFU policy for matters of territorial integrity.
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No First Use serves a practical purpose because there's a lot of conventional weapons that could be mistaken for nuclear weapons due to their speed, accuracy and reach in the PLA arsenal. That is unlikely to change even if China one day surrounds America with military installations, because you don't want someone to think the DF-26 heading straight for their capital ship is a nuke, you need them to know its a conventional weapon (not that it will help them survive)
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
solarz said:
And the reason Russia is deeply involved while NATO is only providing weapons is because Ukraine is a core interest of Russia, while it is only a peripheral interest for NATO. That's how nuclear calculus works: you don't risk MAD for peripheral interests.

This is the same situation for Taiwan, it's a core interest for China. This is why I do not believe US and China will come into direct conflict over Taiwan. China has seen NATO back down when Russia played the nuclear card. China will be expanding its nuclear arsenal, and once ready, will drop the NFU policy for matters of territorial integrity.
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Except China is a core issue for America because China is the only power that have any realistic chance of surpassing the US.

The primary reason NATO has backed down in Ukraine against Russia is because America wants to save its strength for China instead of wasting any of it fighting Russia in Ukraine.

China’s (East) Wind farms are there to safeguard against nuclear blackmail by the US and to ensure no sane US President will ever be delusional enough to think tactical nuclear usage will not result in MAD.

However, it would be unrealistic and naive to think those would be able to deter the US from conventional military gambles where both sides can reliably expect the other to be sufficiently dissuaded by MAD to ever consider the use or even threat of use of nuclear weapons except as second strike retaliation against an enemy first strike.
 
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