PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Jono said:

If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

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Xi had also said (in the context of Taiwan) that the problems of the old should not be passed to the youth to solve. Quite telling in my view. I expect some sort of action taken towards Taiwan in Xi's third term

Jono said:

during the course of discussions in this thread, I have noticed one glaring omission, which is the hearts and minds of the TW population.
it is said that to destroy a country, you must first eradicate its history.
the present Taipei regime is doing just that, it is slowly but steadily eradicating Chinese history from its school curriculum, in a bid to sever the cross-strait bonds so much so that there is no more "Chineseness" among the youth.
as a result, the young TW people may no longer regard themselves as Chinese, but rather Taiwanese in their self-identity.
this Teutonic shift in self-identity among the young people ( from brotherhood to us-and-them ), compounded by the departure of more senior citizens who still regard themselves as Chinese as each year goes by, will make post-reunification governance more and more difficult and turbulent among a restless population if reunification is delayed much longer.
So I would argue that time is not actually on China's side in this aspect.
If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

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The process of de-Taiwanification and re-Sinicization is going to be 100x more difficult than the 2019 Hong Kong protests. That's not a big issue. The CPC has the greatest, most extensive and most effective population control tool in the world in the People's Armed Police. The CPC didn't even send in the PAP in Hong Kong, but with Taiwan they will probably have no choice. The island's population, in particular its youth, is too brainwashed, self-hating and delusional. Of immediate urgency is a correction to Taiwan's revisionist curriculum and the rooting out, disbandment, and punishment of pro-separatist and IJA elements. I imagine there will be a not insignificant amount of lifetime sentences and executions doled out to DPP members.

Jono said:

during the course of discussions in this thread, I have noticed one glaring omission, which is the hearts and minds of the TW population.
it is said that to destroy a country, you must first eradicate its history.
the present Taipei regime is doing just that, it is slowly but steadily eradicating Chinese history from its school curriculum, in a bid to sever the cross-strait bonds so much so that there is no more "Chineseness" among the youth.
as a result, the young TW people may no longer regard themselves as Chinese, but rather Taiwanese in their self-identity.
this Teutonic shift in self-identity among the young people ( from brotherhood to us-and-them ), compounded by the departure of more senior citizens who still regard themselves as Chinese as each year goes by, will make post-reunification governance more and more difficult and turbulent among a restless population if reunification is delayed much longer.
So I would argue that time is not actually on China's side in this aspect.
If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

Click to expand...

We've already seen this play out in HK. In the end, safety and stability trumps naive ideology.

dengyeye said:

The process of de-Taiwanification and re-Sinicization is going to be 100x more difficult than the 2019 Hong Kong protests. That's not a big issue. The CPC has the greatest, most extensive and most effective population control tool in the world in the People's Armed Police. The CPC didn't even send in the PAP in Hong Kong, but with Taiwan they will probably have no choice. The island's population, in particular its youth, is too brainwashed, self-hating and delusional. Of immediate urgency is a correction to Taiwan's revisionist curriculum and the rooting out, disbandment, and punishment of pro-separatist and IJA elements. I imagine there will be a not insignificant amount of lifetime sentences and executions doled out to DPP members.

Click to expand...

Denazification of Taiwan will be a substantial struggle that will take just as long as the denazification of Germany, and must be done in a manner far more complete than the denazification of Imperial Japan. Physical defeat is not enough, as Nazi Germany itself demonstrated: losing WW1 just made them believe in a 'stabbed in the back' myth and enabled right wing radicalism.

At the end of the day, China has spelled out the conditions for armed reunification in its anti-secession law. I for one do not believe the CPC will violate its own law on the Taiwan issue.

Therefore, the choice of peaceful or armed reunification lies entirely with Taiwan.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Denazification of Taiwan will be a substantial struggle that will take just as long as the denazification of Germany, and must be done in a manner far more complete than the denazification of Imperial Japan. Physical defeat is not enough, as Nazi Germany itself demonstrated: losing WW1 just made them believe in a 'stabbed in the back' myth and enabled right wing radicalism.

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The TW youth have so far been shielded from their delusional beliefs due to TW's economic prosperity. However, this prosperity is being slowly eroded.

When you keep lying to yourself, eventually reality is going to bite you on the ass.

When TW's economy collapses from mismanagement, all the deep greens will suddenly remember that they are also Chinese.

Jono said:

during the course of discussions in this thread, I have noticed one glaring omission, which is the hearts and minds of the TW population.
it is said that to destroy a country, you must first eradicate its history.
the present Taipei regime is doing just that, it is slowly but steadily eradicating Chinese history from its school curriculum, in a bid to sever the cross-strait bonds so much so that there is no more "Chineseness" among the youth.
as a result, the young TW people may no longer regard themselves as Chinese, but rather Taiwanese in their self-identity.
this Teutonic shift in self-identity among the young people ( from brotherhood to us-and-them ), compounded by the departure of more senior citizens who still regard themselves as Chinese as each year goes by, will make post-reunification governance more and more difficult and turbulent among a restless population if reunification is delayed much longer.
So I would argue that time is not actually on China's side in this aspect.
If I were President Xi, I would strike within 5 years, that is during his third term as President. In fact within 3 years, to allow another 2 years to restore public order during his tenure.

Click to expand...

Taiwanese is a fake identity, what language are they speaking? Taiwanese? Nope… even “Taiwanese” is just Minnan (Fujianese).

All the explanations I heard of “Taiwan identity” have to bend twist beyond most logic, like that post in the funny things thread where the guy said he thought he was Japanese/Dutch, but the DNA test said 99.7% Southern Chinese, how can he reconcile this?

Whenever Tsai tries to promote “Taiwanese” culture, it’s always something superficial like eating pineapples or drinking bubble tea.

China as a nation has had 1000’s of years to develop its culture and identity, DPP thinks they can create one in 50? Look how easily KMT swept away the Japanese culture from Taiwan, what’s left? Bento box lunches? KMT even managed to have “true” aboriginal Taiwanese singing songs about the glory of China.

This is not meant to say there is absolutely no Taiwanese culture, but it certainly is not something independence advocates can rely on.

Khun Sa, the famous drug kingpin, whose ethnic background was only partially Han, considered himself Chinese and built Chinese schools with his drug money. Allegedly, he enjoyed watching Taiwanese dramas in his “retirement years”/house arrest in Rangoon. If his sense of “Chinese-ness” can survive decades in the Thai-Burmese jungles, tell me how the DPP plans to de-sinicize.

supersnoop said:

Taiwanese is a fake identity, what language are they speaking? Taiwanese? Nope… even “Taiwanese” is just Minnan (Fujianese).

All the explanations I heard of “Taiwan identity” have to bend twist beyond most logic, like that post in the funny things thread where the guy said he thought he was Japanese/Dutch, but the DNA test said 99.7% Southern Chinese, how can he reconcile this?

Whenever Tsai tries to promote “Taiwanese” culture, it’s always something superficial like eating pineapples or drinking bubble tea.

China as a nation has had 1000’s of years to develop its culture and identity, DPP thinks they can create one in 50? Look how easily KMT swept away the Japanese culture from Taiwan, what’s left? Bento box lunches? KMT even managed to have “true” aboriginal Taiwanese singing songs about the glory of China.

This is not meant to say there is absolutely no Taiwanese culture, but it certainly is not something independence advocates can rely on.

Khun Sa, the famous drug kingpin, whose ethnic background was only partially Han, considered himself Chinese and built Chinese schools with his drug money. Allegedly, he enjoyed watching Taiwanese dramas in his “retirement years”/house arrest in Rangoon. If his sense of “Chinese-ness” can survive decades in the Thai-Burmese jungles, tell me how the DPP plans to de-sinicize.

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You say this but Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire longer than US existed as a nation. Ukrainians ruled the USSR with Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev all being Ukrainian, not Russian. Even Zelensky himself speaks Russian as a first language.

Yet here we are with Ukraine vs Russia. West worship is a hell of a drug.

solarz said:

The TW youth have so far been shielded from their delusional beliefs due to TW's economic prosperity. However, this prosperity is being slowly eroded.

When you keep lying to yourself, eventually reality is going to bite you on the ass.

When TW's economy collapses from mismanagement, all the deep greens will suddenly remember that they are also Chinese.

Click to expand...

Honestly, one main reason for the rise of DPP is the poor economic prospects for the young people in Taiwan, and this has been going on for a decade now. Young people come out of university with a degree that often does not get used, and many have to resort to making bubble tea or selling cheap clothing in flea markets. Meanwhile, property prices keep going up, and there is no way they can afford to own their own homes. Taiwan is prosperous, yes, but the prosperity is uneven and unequal across generations. DPP promised to bring social equality and reduce the priviledges of the business community, many of which has mainland ties.
In fact, the disdain of mainland China can be seen as an evolution of the disdain of the wealthy business community among the socially and economically dejected youth, and certain disadvantaged classes of society in general. Mainland China is the backer of the businesses that, in their view, is not bringing about prosperity in a way that benefits them. So, one can argue that, the more Tsai's policies hurt the business community, the more she is actually feeding red meat to her core constituency. Her core voters are not that concerned by economic issues, I guess so long as living standards do not fall to India or some poor African state.
In this vein, I think any moves aimed by the mainland aimed at hurting Taiwan's business community, for example by restricting the flow of imports or tourism services, is counterproductive. These moves hurt the segments of society that tends to support more mainland integration, and is ignored or even savoured by the radical elements.
As an aside, the N word is not appropriate to describe Taiwan. It is not like that.

Oftentimes when discussing a Taiwan contingency, people assume that the PRC only takes action after a declaration of independence or some other crossing of the red line. As if Xi is gonna get woken up in the middle of his afternoon nap by a comically panicked advisor saying "bad news boss, they declared independence! we had no idea they were going to do this today, what will we do?".

Surely with the level of intel the PRC has on Taiwan, would the government and army not have at the very least a couple days of warning before the red line gets crossed? Even if they cannot yet do anything obvious about it (mobilizing troops, deploying navy, etc.), they could at least start drawing up some fresh battle plans and maybe covertly deploy submarines at the very least. How would PLA strategy in a Taiwan contingency be affected, if they were given advance warning, but are in a position where they couldn't do anything too obvious?