I do agree that track records are important, and the last time that the US faced a peer competitor in a high intensity air-naval conflict on a war of attrition was imperial Japan.
Other conflicts that the US had engaged in since WWII either have not involved peer competitors (i.e.: the US lacks the geopolitical rationale for a protracted conflict where it is willing to commit the entirety of its forces in a total war of annihilation), nor have they been air-naval in nature.
Any air-naval conflict would of course involve the use of hypersonic weapons by all sides who have them.
Hypersonic weapons however are a strike system that offers a high chance of successfully penetrating defenses, and if a war occurred today, neither China nor Russia have that many hypersonic weapons in their inventory.
If Russia chooses to make a move while the US redeploys its forces in the western pacific, that is certainly a possibility. Chances are Russia would make moves in Europe, where it would be dependent on European NATO countries to try to fend off a Russian offensive. Russia might contribute what little forces they have to a western pacific conflict as well, but by that point the US will almost certainly enlist the help of Japan and Korea against Chinese and Russian forces in the pacific.
Unfortunately that is all still not a very favourable situation for China, as the US may well be quite willing to allow its client states and allies in Europe and East Asia to bear significant losses if they are all collectively able to inflict losses on Chinese and Russian forces while allowing the US to preserve the relative security and invulnerability of the continental US.
Look -- my overall persisting position throughout the last couple of weeks is this: however we game this out, I believe there is no substitute for the PLA but to require itself to have the capability of wholesale defeating US forces in a manner whereby the US simply does not have the material capability to wage a war of attrition/total war against China even if they had the resolve to.
I do not think the above requirement should be a controversial one, as it is the only option in which the full range of realistic material factors and assumptions can be accounted for, to ensure that victory can be attained (or at least defeat avoided) if the US does have the resolve to fight a war of attrition/total war and the geopolitical boldness to redeploy its global forces against China.
Oh victory could be attained if the USA is willing suffer the kind of loses that took the UK from a super power status to a vestigial empire that has trouble trying to project itself while looking like a joke as it currently is ever since is separation from the EU.
If fights have to be determined in a manner that is acceptable to the west (in a military confrontation that requires utter destruction and loss life) then the USA would have beaten China by now given their propensity for breaking agreements to outright assasination of generals that get in their way (such as irans too general) and in general fighting dirty like they usually do when they strike countries that cannot viability fight back and even then they still put up a fight.
But nowadays, the EU could easily see themselves being used as a sacrifice to stall Russia so that the USA can take on China alone, but as we see right now, given that the options are cheaper gas next door or freezing to death from higher gas prices for a significant portion of their populous, things are no so clear cut and note that Russia has stated that should NATO atenot to expand beyond its red lines, nukes will be used and as such, the EU is in a situation where they will bear the brunt of a destruction that will have extremely quickly for no good reason other then to placate the USA and such an even of the kind, the USA will end up losing a massive pawn in the grand scheme of things for no good reason then to push Russia around in their backyard. Also to note is that any attempts by Korea or Japan to aid the US in a fight against China and Russia would result in the complete destruction of both Japan and Korea depending on how many redlines they crossed and also note that North Korea will certainly be happy to launch nukes at South Korea and Japan after all is said then done so the USA expecting much support from both nations in the event of an all out war is simply not going to work and the resulting damages would destroy any chance of the USA from being able to attain cheap electronic goods for years to come
From my prognosis, either the USA collapses in on itself from all its issues or should USA is able to bring its full forces to bear against (and if that I find this to be quite unlikely given all the problems they now face), I believe that it will lead to mutual destruction on both sides with no one benefiting in the end. That is assuming that the USA can bring its full forces to bear in let’s say 1 year without any interruptions and no one noticing the situation for that long without counter measures in place but if the USA loses its dollar prominence and if they cannot fix their own infrastructure and supply chain issues in time for such an all out assault against China with in 1 year of which this is becoming less and less possible given the mounting issues at home that Biden has to deal with but isn’t able to make any head way, any chances of such a scenario that you seem to be believe will happen as a matter of fact may in fact only be a fantasy.
The USA has the military weapons, true but it still needs to maintain them all and the problem I also see if that even that is becoming a problem that any normal country cannot ignore. Right now, the USA is not lead by those deciding things on intellect but most by emotion which is ensuring more and more scandals will occur in the near future. I will concede that China won’t have things
Handled so easily but in the same token, the USA will not either. This game of thrones is a long term game, and should China play their cards right, China does have a good chance of coming out on top, provided they remain wary for any contingencies that USA may have and that China doesn’t make a foolish aggressive move in the mean time. The USA has much to lose and will use any strategy no matter how crazy to remain on top but the more that antagonise their Allies and cause more instability in the world such as the crisis in the Middle East, but this has a great propensity to fail, like how Russia is drive into Chinas arms so definitively when if they had accepted Russia into NATO, China wouldn’t be able to do much.
right now given the leadership in the USA, it’s not a matter of what strategic play the USA could make to come out on top but rather what kind of catastrophic incidents that Blinken and Biden will drive the nation into next while ignoring everything but their power plays against Russia and China