PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

A

antiterror13

Brigadier
AndrewS said:
It would take a few years for China to ramp up nuclear weapons production, so we wouldn't see the effects till 2030 or so.

The US already projects that China will add ~100 nuclear warheads per year.

So by 2030, China would increase from 600 to 1100.

That isn't a huge gap with Russia or the US, with their 1600 deployed warheads each.

And by 2035, the Chinese nuclear arsenal would be equal.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t be surprised if China reaches ~1,500 warheads by 2030. While the Pentagon estimated 600+ operational warheads in 2024, a source often accused of miscalculation. The count likely sits closer to 800 or 850 as of April 2026.

Ultimately, the warhead count matters less than the delivery system. A nation with 1,000 warheads but no reliable way to launch them is in a weaker strategic position than a country with only 50 warheads supported by advanced, credible delivery systems
 
0

004_On_EastCoast

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Serb said:
How do people still not get that China is the "OG" asymmetric and saturation attack powerhouse?

That is why it could afford more restrained budgets for so long, and why it started building the far seas navy and advanced AF relatively late.

It did not need to copy the US model early because its true regional strength and defensive potential already came mostly from missile and targeting technology, manufacturing scale, and industrial dominance.

DJI is Chinese. The steel is Chinese. The chemicals are Chinese. Sector after sector, China corners the global market share.

It is all about having a nationalized defense sector that can adapt to emerging asymmetric trends quickly, strip out the bloat, and focus on what actually delivers the best results for defense, without crowding out the civil sectors and economy, but working in tandem.

Its state is far more trustworthy to its citizens and more efficient than the joke governments in Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan.

By the time those states ever tried to emulate Iran’s or China's kind of political will and civil-military fusion, they would already be choking under a complete blockade and watching their entire critical infrastructure get wrecked.

As long as they are stuck where they are, they have no real chance of ever standing against China.
Click to expand...

China literally invented asymmetric warfare.

Mao's best work: "The People's War"

Go read it !
 
0

004_On_EastCoast

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
but you have to get past the mental barrier first.

SK, Taiwan and Japan don't see themselves as Iran, they see themselves as Israel.

They hire guys to write about how ballistic missiles are literally a weapon of dictators, as in, only dictators use ballistic missiles.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...

these 3 stooges wasted hundreds of billions of dollars buying US weapons. Only to be useless against China in a war !

While China's have all of their weapons plus Iran's types on super steriods X 10000000000 times and size !!
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Japan might be able to make a crude bomb that is bulky unwieldy, but none are miniaturized that can fit on warhead on MRBM due to lack of extensive nuclear testing. They lack the data to feed supercomputer simulations to miniaturize warheads, and still nothing can replace extensive real world testing which is impossible unless US/others feeds it real world data. Even if they can deliver a crude dirty bomb or two to China, China absorbs casualties, China still has overwhelming retailiation 1000X over to erase Japanese civilization immediately. So China should definitely consider all options on the table to prevent Japan from going nuclear. If the tables were flipped, the Japanese would do the same to pre-emptive China from nukes. Worse case Japan takes a few hits, but then turns China and nascent Chinese nuclear program thoroughly back into stone age.
 
E

Enger12

New Member
Registered Member
A U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would likely offer PLAN a useful case study in how the US Navy conducts maritime interdiction and controls key chokepoints. The PLAN should watch closely to understand how the U.S. enforces inspections, manages logistics, and responds to attempts to challenge the blockade during a potential Taiwan conflict.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top