PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tamsen_ikard said:

China barely produces 200 fighter jets, barely produces 100 tanks per year.

Yes, China has developed plenty of new missiles and drone designs but they are iterating fast and do not have the time to acquire sufficient numbers.

Where do you think China's very limited 300 billion military budget goes? It mostly goes to research of new weapon systems rather than actual mass production of those systems.

Its clear China is prioritising rapid advancement of tech rather than stockpiling numbers.

So, no they dont have a massive stockpile because they never spent huge budget to acquire it. They purposefully kept their military budget low, and spent most of it on rapid catch up to US defense tech rather than mass production.

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"....barely produce 200 fighter jet a year ...." ????? seriously ? ... FYI, China produced 250+ jet fighters in 2025

How many air force in the world that have more than 100 modern fighter jets (4.5 gen and 5 gen) ? not very many!!!, likely less than 12

You sound "belittle" China achievement of producing very modern 250+ jet fighter a year.

The only countries than can produce more than 50 modern aircfat in the world are China and USA, nobody else.

China about 250 to 300 a year (if you included J-10C)
USA about 200 (~150 F-35 and ~50 for F-15EX and F/A-18)

and No. 3 is Russia about 40 a year (SU-35. SU-57 and SU-34)

and No. 4 is France about 25 (Rafale)

India About 20 (Teja MK1A)

Pakistan about 20 JF-17 Block III (some kits from China)

And SK about 8 (KF-21)

Germany/UK/Italy (yes combined) produce ~15 (Eurofighter)

Japan : nothing (apart of ~8 assemblying F-35A)

Taiwan : big nothing (apart of ~13 T-15 brave eaglr trainer, not modern)

So be mindful when you claim something you don't know about and then, when a lot of people proved that you are wrong, you are simply just disappeared and then you come up again with "wild, weird and random" accusation

allegedly she arrived in Shanghai

Jono said:

How could China stop a nuclear weapon-capable Japan from interfering with AR of Taiwan?
As it is, a conventional power-Japan is already a formidable force to reckon with, imagine a nuclear Japan?
Japan is stockpiling enough Plutonium to make 5500 warheads, that's a fact.
Japan is known to take gambles against better strategy and judgement in the past, and had attacked China >3 times in the past to thwart China's modernization efforts. It had won every single time, except for the last time when it was forced to surrender to the Americans, but not to the Chinese, whom most Japanese despise. What's stopping Japan to gamble again, once it is nuclear capable??
Xi will be judged harshly if he allows Japan, an archnemesis of China, to acquire nuclear weapons under his watch.

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It looks like China is ramping to 160-200 5th stealth fighters per year.
So it takes about 2 years for China to add the equivalent of the entire Japanese Air Force, and note that the majority of the Japanese aircraft will be previous 4th generation fighter jets which are not stealthy.

All of the Japanese Home Islands are within 1300km of mainland China, so it is feasible for heavyweight fighter jets to operate to this distance.

By 2030, the Chinese Air Force should be able to obtain air superiority over Japan, when combined with the Rocket Force and the rest of the Air Force. That means the ports and runways in Japan will be under continuous attack, and Japan will be under blockade.

This applies even if the US military gets involved.

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The Chinese Navy is also adding the equivalent of an entire Japanese Navy about every 3-4 years.
My guess is that by 2035, the Chinese military will be able to win blue-water naval-air battles in the 2nd Island Chain, and therefore control who can reach the Western Pacific (which includes Japan)

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Remember that in WW2, Japan gave up, rather than commit national suicide.
So Emperor announced that Japan would "bear the unbearable" and surrender to the USA

FriedRiceNSpice said:

You apply the maximum economic pressure BEFORE they actually have the nukes.

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It will take Japan at least 3 months to develop and field nuclear weapons, and I severely doubt they can keep this secret.

So China will have the option to impose sanctions and economic pressure.
But if Japan is really determined to acquire nuclear weapons, they can do it.

But China should make it clear that the cost will be the death of Japanese companies, which includes the automobile industry.

Then we'd be looking at a situation where China has an economy over 11x larger than Japan.
That is comparable to the USA and Canada.

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But my guess is that such a threat will be sufficient for the Japanese government (via Keidanren) to back down, as long as China continues a policy of indifference/shunning towards Japan.

AndrewS said:

It will take Japan at least 3 months to develop and field nuclear weapons, and I severely doubt they can keep this secret.

So China will have the option to impose sanctions and economic pressure.
But if Japan is really determined to acquire nuclear weapons, they can do it.

But China should make it clear that the cost will be the death of Japanese companies, which includes the automobile industry.

Then we'd be looking at a situation where China has an economy over 11x larger than Japan.
That is comparable to the USA and Canada.

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But my guess is that such a threat will be sufficient for the Japanese government (via Keidanren) to back down, as long as China continues a policy of indifference/shunning towards Japan.

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we have to see if japan after getting nukes will change their stance and try to get revenge for what america has done to them or just blindly be against china again and forget the US

GulfLander said:

allegedly she arrived in Shanghai

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2041413418188738638

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Must feel good to breath in air in a place that is PROUD to be Chinese rather than ashamed.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

You apply the maximum economic pressure BEFORE they actually have the nukes.

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I haven’t seen any evidence that China’s leadership has willingness to take any real action no matter what the issue is. It seems that they continue with ”do nothing and wait” path unless someone forces them to act, so in a way China is very similar with European Union as neither is known for doing anything drastic. Americans see military as a tool for shaping geopolitics instead of being completely passive.

Broccoli said:

I haven’t seen any evidence that China’s leadership has willingness to take any real action no matter what the issue is. It seems that they continue with ”do nothing and wait” path unless someone forces them to act, so in a way China is very similar with European Union as neither is known for doing anything drastic. Americans see military as a tool for shaping geopolitics instead of being completely passive.

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Did you forget how China answered Trump’s tariffs in his new presidency immediately, with no hesitation and no playing around, and forced him to backtrack almost at once?

China moved straight to reciprocal tariffs of 125 percent on all American goods.

It also used the real nuclear option on strategic exports, rare earths, and semiconductor-related materials, restrictions that still matter now, especially for the US defense sector.

At the same time, China added another 15 to 25 percent duties on American soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and pork, plus 15 percent on US LNG and coal.

Then there was the Unreliable Entity List, antitrust probes, and the normalization of using those tools as part of the broader pressure campaign.

So why do you think Trump backed off the first time, and why is he now so desperate for a new summit with Xi and a visit to China?

Because the American military industrial system still cannot function properly without a number of those materials, China has effectively cut off for defense sector use from then on.

And that is without even getting into the tens of billions in infrastructure China poured into Iran, while also keeping Iranian exports alive for years, almost single-handedly.

Then add the bigger, global monetary layer on top, the steady push toward de-dollarization through CIPS, the SGE, mBridge, the digital yuan, bilateral swap agreements, and the rest for years.

Even now, parts of China’s financial system, historically including channels like Bank of Kunlun for Iran-related trade, along with Chinese materials, dual-use goods, capital goods, and intermediate goods, keep helping economies and millitaries like Iran’s and Russia’s, function under sanctions and sustain their war efforts against the US.

Jono said:

「養虎遺患」[raising a tiger to become a calamity] is a famous Chinese idiom of warning against complacency, and not to trust anyone who harbours vile and evil intent against you to act rationally.
You trust an adventurist Japan can be persuaded with non-military means to back off, while history has clearly shown the opposite.
I guess we just have to agree to disagree on this viewpoint.

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I don't trust them at all but this is about weighing the dangers and risks. If you believe that a nuclear Japan will launch and attempt to wipe out Chinese civilization offensively, then they must be stopped at all costs. Those 3 words, "at all costs" mean everything. It means that even if we need to pre-emptively nuke Japan and get into a limited nuclear war now with the US and be embargoed from world trade afterwards, it is worth it. If you believe that there is almost nothing they can do with those nukes just like North Korea can do nothing with its nukes to threaten the US, then the risks you are willing to take are much much reduced. I'm of the latter camp.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

You apply the maximum economic pressure BEFORE they actually have the nukes.

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Certainly, that's not a problem. I would agree with that. I would apply that even right now if I were the Chinese leader and asked. I thought we were debating about military action to stop them. I am not in favor of a nuclear Japan; I am very much against it. I simply do not think we need to risk much to stop it because there will be almost nothing that they can do with it.

And let me say this again: China is not a civilization that claims superiority by preventing the progress of other nations; we are a civilization that achieves superiority by out-innovating and out-building others. America is a country that tries to stay on top by preventing others from progressing. If Japan is dead set on getting the nuke, they will get it; there is very little we can do with acceptable risk to prevent it. But what we can definitely do is develop new technologies to defend against them and new weapons more destructive than the nuke.

Broccoli said:

I haven’t seen any evidence that China’s leadership has willingness to take any real action no matter what the issue is. It seems that they continue with ”do nothing and wait” path unless someone forces them to act, so in a way China is very similar with European Union as neither is known for doing anything drastic. Americans see military as a tool for shaping geopolitics instead of being completely passive.

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Sitting and waiting is very very different between a growing and developing civilization vs one that is lying flat or declining. It is strategy for the former and self-harm through procrastination for the latter. Americans are doing what they are doing now because in their decline, with political and economic tools no longer sufficient, they are lashing out the last way they know how, which is militarily and outside of East Asia where China is prepared to fight.

Serb said:

Did you forget how China answered Trump’s tariffs in his new presidency immediately, with no hesitation and no playing around, and forced him to backtrack almost at once?

China moved straight to reciprocal tariffs of 125 percent on all American goods.

It also used the real nuclear option on strategic exports, rare earths, and semiconductor-related materials, restrictions that still matter now, especially for the US defense sector.

At the same time, China added another 15 to 25 percent duties on American soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and pork, plus 15 percent on US LNG and coal.

Then there was the Unreliable Entity List, antitrust probes, and the normalization of using those tools as part of the broader pressure campaign.

So why do you think Trump backed off the first time, and why is he now so desperate for a new summit with Xi and a visit to China?

Because the American military industrial system still cannot function properly without a number of those materials, China has effectively cut off for defense sector use from then on.

And that is without even getting into the tens of billions in infrastructure China poured into Iran, while also keeping Iranian exports alive for years, almost single-handedly.

Then add the bigger, global monetary layer on top, the steady push toward de-dollarization through CIPS, the SGE, mBridge, the digital yuan, bilateral swap agreements, and the rest for years.

Even now, parts of China’s financial system, historically including channels like Bank of Kunlun for Iran-related trade, along with Chinese materials, dual-use goods, capital goods, and intermediate goods, keep helping economies and millitaries like Iran’s and Russia’s, function under sanctions and sustain their war efforts against the US.

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I would also add that since the Japanese Prime Minister made the Taiwan remarks, China has imposed targeted technology and materials sanctions on Japan.

They will probably take a few more months to have effect, like we saw during the US-China trade and sanctions war last year, which resulted in a US capitulation.