One thing I've always wondered (and made an account specifically to ask) is why it's considered "OK" when America does stuff like Monroe but not China. Does China also have some sort of reasoning? Or is American just being an imperialist again?
PLA Strategies In The Indian Ocean And The Malacca And Sunda Straits
- Thread starter james smith esq
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- bri sloc string of pearls
There is no reason. China should seek to be the dominant geopolitical force in Asia, especially among ASEAN countries. It simply can't do that right now due to having inferior military, financial and possibly cultural power to America. As China grows stronger, it's only natural for China to try to bring these countries into its orbit.
What about Japan? Could they eclipse the US? Perhaps with some sort of alliance with South Korea and a willingness to bypass United States hegemony?
Japan eclipsing the US? wind the clock back 80 years and maybe they could give it a shot. End of the day, they are just on a small island, and are restricted in growth unless they secure a foothold on East Asia mainland again. Alliance with South Korea would be a pipe dream lol I think they hate the Koreans more than the Chinese.
Japan historically swings with the dominant power. Its in their blood. When China becomes dominant, issues with Japan will resolve through Japan rolling on its back. Key is dominance, and the trend is looking that way hence the US's reactions.
Then should China form a sphere of cooperation with Japan and Korea to force out American interests? I mean since Japan seems to roll over and kneel to the highest power, it could work. Just would need to get South Korea to go along with it, which I'm sure isn't hard.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I am not aware any dispute between China and Indonesia? What is it? Natuna? .... my understanding is that Natuna is outside 9 dot line
You are taking America's presence in the western Pacific as an immutable given and trying to work around it. I don't think that should be China's approach - I think China should make some diplomatic efforts with these countries, but the thrust of its effort should be to change the strategic picture by building enough strength to expel America from the region. That will automatically resolve all disputes in China's favour since the surrounding countries will no longer have a partner powerful enough to hedge against China with.
And how do you expel America from the region without working with these countries? Do you have a plan other than China needs to get stronger? You think just by getting stronger, these countries will say we don't want America anymore?
You have to use your cultural ties with these countries to build cultural influence there. You have to continue increasing your business ties in there. Now that you have advanced military weaponry, you need to sell them to friendly countries.
For example, if Malaysia wants advanced 5th gen and drone technology, China can sell it to them. If Indonesia feels danger from that, then they need to also come to China for that technology, because America isn't going to provide them to them.
When you are in a strong position of negotiation, work out these island disputes with them. Then, Philippines will no longer be talking about signing EDCA. It will rely on China. You can work on getting naval bases in Indonesia.
But you need a strategy to achieve all of this. Isolate Australia in the region. Make sure Singapore is neutral. Vietnam is a lost cause. Every other countries in the region are potential allies.
I think all your proposals are great and China should pursue them. My point is that they don't get you to the finish line. Certain things can only be won through war. America has the position it does in the region not because of military, financial or cultural strength, it has it because it conquered Japan in war. So, yes, the main thrust of my plan is China becoming economically, militarily, financially, etc. strong enough to either fight against America and win, or intimidate America into quitting the region. Its specific relationships with other countries in the region is secondary to that - if they align with China, great. If not, no great loss.
These countries fundamentally align with America because they see it as strong enough to stand against China. Once that's no longer the case and they recognize that to no longer be the case, they'll re-evaluate their relationship with America.
China lost Southeast Asia as a exclusive sphere of influence when it lost the wars against Europeans and Japan (e.g., IndoChina conquered by France, Burma/Malaysia by British, Indonesia by Dutch, Philippines by Spain/US). For China to restore it's exclusive sphere of influence, it must go through war again. In other words, the Europeans/Americans must be physically expelled from East Asia and SE Asia via war.
Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore have formal treaty alliances, major Non-NATO allies, or strong working relationship with US. No amount of cultural exchange, economic interdependence, and confidence building measures can override security alliances, as we can see with South Korea. It can change on a dime with an new pro-US conservative president.
More fundamentally, ASEAN will play both sides to maximize their own benefit and will never accept overdependence on a single great power unless coerced by force OR there is simply no other option (e.g. when China was so piss-poor and backwards, US or USSR was the only option)
Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore have formal treaty alliances, major Non-NATO allies, or strong working relationship with US. No amount of cultural exchange, economic interdependence, and confidence building measures can override security alliances, as we can see with South Korea. It can change on a dime with an new pro-US conservative president.
More fundamentally, ASEAN will play both sides to maximize their own benefit and will never accept overdependence on a single great power unless coerced by force OR there is simply no other option (e.g. when China was so piss-poor and backwards, US or USSR was the only option)