Now, if they can settle these claims with Philippines and Indonesia and have their share of islands in SCS, America would have no leg to stand on in this dispute at all. Do you want China to continue arguing about a few rocks and exploration rights or do you want it to continue having its expanded islands + naval bases in friendly countries in SCS? The Chinese government and PLA really needs to think about this. USN isn't going away with its freedom of navigation trips to SCS or its attempts to add air base in Philippines as long as China does not resolve its disputes with its neighbors.
I don't see your point, america has no leg to stand on in anything either way, they are not part of the dispute. They've never joined or ratified UNCLOS even. China never hammers them on this, along with Diego Garcia and chagos islands, which is an illegal occupation under UN law. Like even usa and uk cannot deny it. China should be hammering them about this every single time they talk about rules based order or anything. Same as iraq invasion and everything else which they are starting to do more now.
You think china will suddenly do alliances and have overseas naval bases in Vietnam, phillipines, Indonesia and they will all side with china against usa just because china makes concessions and resolves the dispute for a few islands? That is fantasy. They will keep doing what they are doing because that is game theory and logical to hedge against china power. Otherwise they will just be Chinese vassal state with zero leverage in the situation you foresee. Why would they do that? If they can do that, then why would they even argue with china over "few rocks" as you put it?
China actually needs them for peripheral/expanded defense and early warning vs usa, and also to keep other SCS nations in line with power projection since there are runways and other things on the islands, and gives china a permanent presence in one of the most strategic and contested regions in the world.
Even if china gave up all claims it would still be disputed by Taiwan, by Vietnam, phillipines, Indonesia, Malaysia etc etc. It's not just china's bi lateral issue or everyone vs china, it's everyone vs everyone, and china has the biggest stick and biggest soft power. It holds all the cards and time is on chinas side. Just like for taiwan, it doesn't need to make any moves and just keep doing what it's doing. Usa and others can't do anything. It also makes china consistent and demonstrates Chinese will and resolve to the world. If you can give this up, what's next, Taiwan? Indian border? Where does this meekness stop? Why should china even be meek when it's strong? If it was anyone else they would have used much more force already, both hard and soft power. China's rise has been the most peaceful of all superpowers.
Vietnam itself has long foreign policy of 3 nos, no alliances same as china, no joining with other countries to target third country and I forgot the last one but something similar. Phillipines hosting us base or whatever makes no difference, if it came down to total war usa is still 10000 km away and china can still hit mainland usa anyway without needing to leave china. Usa is just wasting it's money in those overseas bases since it can never attack china in total war anyway.
If total war really broke out between china and usa over say Taiwan, I don't see any third country getting involved. Including usa, let alone Japan or sk or phillipines or Vietnam. It would just make them targets for zero gain. Just like no one helped Ukraine directly with boots on the ground, same logic applies to Taiwan.
They can only do sanctions or whatever, but even there, china has its own cards to play and has 1.4 billion people and plenty of other countries it can trade with, ala belt and road and global south. Usa could not even win a trade war or unite it's own western vassals against china, let alone unite the whole world against china, where half or more of them are countries that hate usa and west and have been bullied and colonised by them for centuries (just like china).
If china is really forced, it would be better to resolve border with India, and china India Russia, Africa, south America + middle east(more neutral) could basically just be their own market and the west would be the ones begging to access it. India is not dumb, they know they are next after china if they keep rising.
China and CPC/PLA know exactly what they are doing. It's you who needs to study history and current day reality and realpolitik. Appeasement will get china nowhere. Only strength matters, and china is getting stronger everyday faster than everyone. Island dispute is nothing, china needs those islands for security and also needs to keep it's claims to defend it's sovereignty and credibility, and also like korean war, needs to show it's power. Otherwise if you give an inch, they will take a mile. Korean war could have also been argued that china should not go to war but in hindsight it showed the world china was no longer the weak man of Asia and guaranteed china's peaceful rise for 70 years and counting now. That was one thing Mao was right about and why he's so respected still. No one respects an appeaser. Especially not your enemies/adversaries who have been trying to contain and overthrow and divide you for centuries now and who is racist against you in every way. China needs to keep doing it's own thing and get the respect it deserves. No one will give it to you for free, in fact they are actively trying to slander and make china the bad guy etc. Appeasement only plays into their game and proves them right. The only way to win is not to play their game and just keep getting stronger and richer and china doing it's own thing at it's own pace for it's own interests. That's what a great superpower is. And that's what china is, and what china should keep doing.
China only played under usa and UN rules because it benefits china. If it doesn't, no need to feel bad about war or conflict or others "not liking china". Same as usa, Russia etc. You think usa or west cares if Chinese(20% of the world population and number 2 economy) likes usa? You think usa or west looks at south east Asia, India etc as friends or equal? Nah. They are only using them as throwaway sacrificial pawns and look at them with even less respect than china and Chinese. Fear itself is a form of respect, and that's mainly what usa uses these days also. Through military force or sanctions etc.
China just needs to improve it's informational warfare capacity. Usa is still heaps and bounds ahead in "public relations", while china is still calling theirs "propaganda department". Still too many old school communist mentality types, not updated for the new tik tok social media age. But with new people like zhao Lijian and hua chunying and Chen weihua types and more outspoken types and more international engagement, china's time will come. They know how to play the game.
