Implications
Changes to the orders-of-battle for the Army, Marines, and Airborne as mentioned above have many implications for future PLA capabilities and operations. First, none of these changes will happen overnight. People and units will be transferred to different locations and units will have to learn to work with headquarters and units they have never worked with before. This will certainly cause anxiety and tension for many soldiers and leaders. Modifications to what seemed like good ideas on paper are inevitable.
Fewer Army units will allow for increased levels of field training, such as seen in the trans-regional exercises of the past decade. The fewer troops spread further apart would be expected to be trained and ready to move long distances to reinforce units in other regions. All units must be prepared to operate on short notice in new locales and coordinate with unfamiliar headquarters and units. In addition to Navy and Air Force units training outside China’s borders, additional Army exercises in foreign countries are likely. More training with more advanced equipment also means more wear and tear on equipment and more time and expense for maintenance. But a smaller number of units requires less new equipment than the larger Army of previous generations. Newer, higher-technology equipment requires more highly educated, trained, and motivated personnel, who remain in service for longer periods of time, than in decades past. The PLA’s professional military education system will also undergo many changes to prepare officers and NCOs for their more advanced and complex assignments.
A smaller Army means that its proportion of the defense budget will probably decrease, even as levels of funding continue to rise. Currently, the relative personnel strength of the services to each other is unknown as is the distribution of funding among the services. Nonetheless, even as the Army gets smaller, it will likely be the largest of the services. But breaking the “Big Army” concept is an essential requirement in transforming the PLA to conduct maritime operations farther from China and aerospace operations in support of all PLA campaigns.
If the expansion of the Marines and Airborne comes to fruition, the PLA’s potential for expeditionary operations will increase significantly (pending the construction of the sea- and air-lift to move them beyond China’s borders). Expeditionary missions will strain existing PLA logistics capabilities, a problem that the Joint Logistics Support Force, in part, is intended to resolve. But new operating concepts will be necessary, such as logistics bases outside of China. Likewise, these operations demand levels of command and control, intelligence, space, and mapping support that now, to some extent, are consolidated in the new Strategic Support Force. More developments in these fields will undoubtedly occur and the PLA’s tooth-to-tail ratio will change as additional support is necessary for distant operations.
Conclusion
No matter how functionally proficient these organizational changes and increased levels of training make the PLA’s operational and tactical units, the quality of its joint TC, service headquarters, and unit staffs will be crucial for the planning, command, and control of campaigns. Success boils down to leadership in units and headquarters at all levels. Therefore, even as more changes to PLA organization are announced, it is likely there will be many more official references to the critical self-evaluation first published in 2015: Some commanders 1) cannot judge the situation, 2) cannot understand the intention of higher authorities, 3) cannot make operational decisions, 4) cannot deploy troops, and 5) cannot deal with unexpected situations (81.cn, January 22). As the PLA continues its modernization and reform, the greatest unknown is whether its leadership is ready for the new challenges ahead.
Dennis J. Blasko, Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army (Retired), is a former U.S. army attaché to Beijing and Hong Kong and author of The Chinese Army Today (Routledge, 2006).
Changes to the orders-of-battle for the Army, Marines, and Airborne as mentioned above have many implications for future PLA capabilities and operations. First, none of these changes will happen overnight. People and units will be transferred to different locations and units will have to learn to work with headquarters and units they have never worked with before. This will certainly cause anxiety and tension for many soldiers and leaders. Modifications to what seemed like good ideas on paper are inevitable.
Fewer Army units will allow for increased levels of field training, such as seen in the trans-regional exercises of the past decade. The fewer troops spread further apart would be expected to be trained and ready to move long distances to reinforce units in other regions. All units must be prepared to operate on short notice in new locales and coordinate with unfamiliar headquarters and units. In addition to Navy and Air Force units training outside China’s borders, additional Army exercises in foreign countries are likely. More training with more advanced equipment also means more wear and tear on equipment and more time and expense for maintenance. But a smaller number of units requires less new equipment than the larger Army of previous generations. Newer, higher-technology equipment requires more highly educated, trained, and motivated personnel, who remain in service for longer periods of time, than in decades past. The PLA’s professional military education system will also undergo many changes to prepare officers and NCOs for their more advanced and complex assignments.
A smaller Army means that its proportion of the defense budget will probably decrease, even as levels of funding continue to rise. Currently, the relative personnel strength of the services to each other is unknown as is the distribution of funding among the services. Nonetheless, even as the Army gets smaller, it will likely be the largest of the services. But breaking the “Big Army” concept is an essential requirement in transforming the PLA to conduct maritime operations farther from China and aerospace operations in support of all PLA campaigns.
If the expansion of the Marines and Airborne comes to fruition, the PLA’s potential for expeditionary operations will increase significantly (pending the construction of the sea- and air-lift to move them beyond China’s borders). Expeditionary missions will strain existing PLA logistics capabilities, a problem that the Joint Logistics Support Force, in part, is intended to resolve. But new operating concepts will be necessary, such as logistics bases outside of China. Likewise, these operations demand levels of command and control, intelligence, space, and mapping support that now, to some extent, are consolidated in the new Strategic Support Force. More developments in these fields will undoubtedly occur and the PLA’s tooth-to-tail ratio will change as additional support is necessary for distant operations.
Conclusion
No matter how functionally proficient these organizational changes and increased levels of training make the PLA’s operational and tactical units, the quality of its joint TC, service headquarters, and unit staffs will be crucial for the planning, command, and control of campaigns. Success boils down to leadership in units and headquarters at all levels. Therefore, even as more changes to PLA organization are announced, it is likely there will be many more official references to the critical self-evaluation first published in 2015: Some commanders 1) cannot judge the situation, 2) cannot understand the intention of higher authorities, 3) cannot make operational decisions, 4) cannot deploy troops, and 5) cannot deal with unexpected situations (81.cn, January 22). As the PLA continues its modernization and reform, the greatest unknown is whether its leadership is ready for the new challenges ahead.
Dennis J. Blasko, Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army (Retired), is a former U.S. army attaché to Beijing and Hong Kong and author of The Chinese Army Today (Routledge, 2006).