i have doubts, 6th Gen fighter jet is in very early stage of design and development. final product will be completely different so even if he seen some glimpse, that will not be the final product.
PLA next/6th generation fighter thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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Yes. Most likely a technology demonstrator prototype of some sort (ala YF-22 and YF-23).
hmm … would be indeed interesting to know why he noted this and what he does not like! I for myself rate both the J-10 - especially the C - and the J-20 quite very attractive designs and I expect the J-XD not to be different. Maybe it’s just since it is the first of its kind?
As others have said, it would imply they've seen J-XD in some form and are confident enough that they've seen the actual article to make a remark about its aesthetics.
If this thing really does emerge later this year as a prototype or a genuinely representative tech demonstrator, then I must say it would be a bit of a shock. Sure, over the last year or so we've had hints that maybe J-XD is a bit further ahead than we otherwise may have thought, but if an actual representative tech demonstrator emerges (or even just has its existence significantly hinted/rumoured at), then this would be a bit of a step ahead of other next gen/6th gen projects in the rest of the world including the US.
In fact, given the US seems to be going back to the drawing board even in terms of requirements for NGAD, if J-XD does appear to a "genuine next generation/6th generation" airframe this has the potential to be momentous.
.... and I echo what @ACuriousPLAFan wrote: imo we should not spread these very early pre-rumours about "expecting J-XD" this year on twitter or reddit etc, because the sheer scale of such a call is one that is hard to dial back and without confident confirmation it's not something we can confirm or be helpful to the discourse.
Even by the blurry standards of fighter generations, "6th gen" seems very poorly defined. Assuming there is a reveal later this year, it would go a long way towards nailing down which features are or are not expected to be in such an aircraft. Of course, there's also the possibility that such an early reveal excludes a lot of the more revolutionary ideas.
is it really surprising though?
1998 was when j-10 first flew. 2011 was when J-20 first flew. "6th gen" demonstrator appearing in 2024 and flying in 2025 would match this timeline.
And Yankeesama a few months ago seemed to have been very optimistic about 6th gen making first flight soon.
I still think 2026 first flight is more likely and it remains to be seen just what will make this aircraft 6th gen. Since we've never had a 6th gen, PLAAF will be defining it with this aircraft.
1998 was when j-10 first flew. 2011 was when J-20 first flew. "6th gen" demonstrator appearing in 2024 and flying in 2025 would match this timeline.
And Yankeesama a few months ago seemed to have been very optimistic about 6th gen making first flight soon.
I still think 2026 first flight is more likely and it remains to be seen just what will make this aircraft 6th gen. Since we've never had a 6th gen, PLAAF will be defining it with this aircraft.
I think it's more surprising in the sense that we may actually see this thing soon and that the USAF's NGAD seems to genuinely be a bit behind in terms of what they want.
The idea of the PLA coming out with a "6th generation" airframe first in the world, even if it is a representative tech demo (J-20 2001 equivalent, or YF-22 esque), would be rather psychologically significant.
In terms of defining 6th generation, it is possible that J-XD in its initial incarnation may not have all characteristics or subsystems that will reflect a full "6th gen/next gen" capability set especially if it uses some interim subsystems.
Still, it's possible it may have a 6th gen appropriate airframe (flying Dorito) but just have various 6th gen defining subsystems and avionics rolled into it over time.
I would also caution that the J-XD might also fall short of what eventual "6th gen" characteristics end up being. For example the Mig 1.44 was developed as the USSR's vision of a next generation fighter at the time, and naturally it ended up that YF-22/23 was actually more reflective of what actual next gen/5th gen would look like.
There is a small possibility J-XD may be a misfire in that manner as well, though I'm somewhat confident of contemporary PRC aerospace industry capabilities and PLA forecasting of future air war needs, that J-XD will be rather sensible.
I strongly suspect if anything flies in the next year it will be more of an exploratory platform than a mature representation of whatever concepts and requirements they’re developing. It may simply be that the aerodynamic development is more ready than everything else about the program.
It's not out of the question to fly a full size tech demo prototype ala 2001 for J-20 even if it is using interim engines and of course lacking any subsystems.
But at this point it seems like they should have already decided on a configuration to pursue full scale development on, based on rumours over the last half decade.
Obviously. The subsystems probably won’t be ready for five to ten years. But it will be like J-20 2001 in the same sense — major earthquake in the military scene.