PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

[latenlazy]

The real question is whether we should've expected J-XD to not be some sort of "regional/theater large combat aircraft".

I suspect its weapons bay won't be quite as deep as we had previously envisioned for JH-XX

Yeah it’s not quite a successor concept, hence why evolved. We really might in fact get two “J-XD” platforms. Maybe they’re reproducing a J-20+J-16 like tandem. One that’s better at the fighting and one that’s better at the multirole do everything capability. I could see the logic behind that approach. Though obviously that’s all very speculative.

Also maybe they didn’t need a JH-XX like profile with deep bays because the need to internally carry those kinds of large diameter high energy munitions has been deprecated by the evolution of other approaches.

 

[Blitzo]

Yeah it’s not quite a successor concept, hence why evolved. We really might in fact get two “J-XD” platforms. Maybe they’re reproducing a J-20+J-16 like tandem. One that’s better at the fighting and one that’s better at the multirole do everything capability. I could see the logic behind that approach. Though obviously that’s all very speculative.

While I'm keeping open to the idea of two complementary J-XD concepts, I also think the medium term will see the emergence of credible unmanned platforms that many "multirole capabilities" will be delegated and offboarded to.

If there is a differentiator between two notional future J-XD concepts imo the biggest separation would be size/range related, if a second J-XD emerges at all.

 

[tphuang]

Starting to get the sense that this is actually an evolved JH-XX lol.

again, my theory is that this is a large theater level do everything aircraft.

SAC will have more of an air superiority aircraft design put into service much later.

Calling it JH-XX implies it's some kind of 5th gen strike fighter concept, which probably underplays its eventually versatility and capability.

you don't really need this aircraft to have a large weapon bay or carry as much payload if UCAVs can take of that.

some possibilities:
- PLAAF doesn't see the need for classic fighter jet type in 6th gen
- PLAAF sees having a longe range/loiter time aircraft to be far more important in the Westpac flight in the near term, so that's what it will get first.

 

[Gloire_bb]

you don't really need this aircraft to have a large weapon bay or carry as much payload if UCAVs can take of that.

if you build a 50+t fighter, that means you want to go deep into hostile/neutral airspace. Then you very much do want to carry more.
Unless you want to fly with a whole squadron of aircraft, that will greatly increase the chances of your detection. It will also have to match your performance, and so on.

 

[Blitzo]

if you build a 50+t fighter, that means you want to go deep into hostile/neutral airspace. Then you very much do want to carry more.
Unless you want to fly with a whole squadron of aircraft, that will greatly increase the chances of your detection. It will also have to match your performance, and so on.

A large aircraft doesn't necessarily mean it has to be penetrating in nature for all its missions -- it could equally mean operating at long ranges but at standoff distances outside of air defense distances, as well as operating with long loiter times.

(Of course, that doesn't mean it cannot still also have a respectable weapons load for its size, but whether it means "carrying more" is subjective)

 

[Gloire_bb]

A large aircraft doesn't necessarily mean it has to be penetrating in nature for all its missions -- it could equally mean operating at long ranges but at standoff distances outside of air defense distances, as well as operating with long loiter times.

You don't need large ammo stock only for penetrating missions.
You need large ammo stock simply because over a course of long-range mission(many hours) there may be multiple engagements.
At best it's opportunity lost. At worst - well, shark powder.

Ultimately, it's rather unlikely that such plane is a loitering interceptor - China is not Russia. Interdictor is simply more likely.

 

[Blitzo]

You don't need large ammo stock only for penetrating missions.
You need large ammo stock simply because over a course of long-range mission(many hours) there may be multiple engagements.
At best it's opportunity lost. At worst - well.

Again, "large ammo stock" can mean different things.

Personally I am quite open to the idea of J-XD carrying a large weapons load -- see below for a speculative take I made some time ago of a J-XD alongside J-20 scaled with J-16 carrying PL-17, PL-15, and folding fin PL-15.

However, I do also think there will be significant further delegation of magazine capacity to unmanned platforms in a manner where the J-XD itself may not be the primary shooter for many missions.



====

On a separate note, this is an evolved take of J-XD I made a little while ago with folding tail concepts depicted.
Twin engine in configuration of course.

 

[latenlazy]

While I'm keeping open to the idea of two complementary J-XD concepts, I also think the medium term will see the emergence of credible unmanned platforms that many "multirole capabilities" will be delegated and offboarded to.

If there is a differentiator between two notional future J-XD concepts imo the biggest separation would be size/range related, if a second J-XD emerges at all.

Until we see a lot more evolution in the AI space I suspect in the foreseeable future manned fighters will still be a necessity.

again, my theory is that this is a large theater level do everything aircraft.

SAC will have more of an air superiority aircraft design put into service much later.

Calling it JH-XX implies it's some kind of 5th gen strike fighter concept, which probably underplays its eventually versatility and capability.

you don't really need this aircraft to have a large weapon bay or carry as much payload if UCAVs can take of that.

some possibilities:
- PLAAF doesn't see the need for classic fighter jet type in 6th gen
- PLAAF sees having a longe range/loiter time aircraft to be far more important in the Westpac flight in the near term, so that's what it will get first.

Well there’s a reason I called it “evolved”.

I think second possibility is more operative than first right now.

 

[Blitzo]

Until we see a lot more evolution in the AI space I suspect in the foreseeable future manned fighters will still be a necessity.

I absolutely believe that manned fighters will still be necessary for quite a long while, which is why J-XD exists (even if it more of an uber-regional-combat aircraft).
I am skeptical whether they will need another second J-XD however.


I think part of the issue is about what a "fighter" should be viewed as in the modern age, because I think that word has some connotations to it which determines how we will view today's and future aerial combat.

I think something like "aerial manoeuvring, sensor, weapons, networking, command platform" may be a better description for what the role of a "fighter" and more importantly for an "air combat system (of systems)" would be like. And yes, part of that system of systems would involve one or more major manned platforms -- whether it needs to involve a second next gen "fighter"/second J-XD, is something I'm not sure about.

 

[latenlazy]

I absolutely believe that manned fighters will still be necessary for quite a long while, which is why J-XD exists (even if it more of an uber-regional-combat aircraft).
I am skeptical whether they will need another second J-XD however.


I think part of the issue is about what a "fighter" should be viewed as in the modern age, because I think that word has some connotations to it which determines how we will view today's and future aerial combat.

I think something like "aerial manoeuvring, sensor, weapons, networking, command platform" may be a better description for what the role of a "fighter" and more importantly for an "air combat system (of systems)" would be like. And yes, part of that system of systems would involve one or more major manned platforms -- whether it needs to involve a second next gen "fighter"/second J-XD, is something I'm not sure about.

I think the bigger reason for having a second fighter is if the do everything very large fighter is very expensive and you still need a very capable manned platform to fill in quantities without having to literally be do everything.