PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

[iewgnem]

I think if in retrospect it becomes genuinely taking the lead in global fighter development rather than symbolic, then raucous celebration would be appropriate.

The possibility that it ends up the Mig-25 equivalent to an opfor's (yet to emerge) F-15, cannot be excluded, for example.

J-20 is the F-15, F-22 is the Mig-25...

 

[Blitzo]

Also true, but I nonetheless think "a brief moment of polite interest at most" is too much to ask. There will be at least some amount of cheering.

Whatever amount of celebration that occurs, I'm obviously not going to actively disapprove or criticize during the process.

However before it emerges I am trying to pre-empt things, saying it would be useful for people to think a little bit and calibrate the extent of their celebration and enjoyment accurately.


This isn't because I'm being a downer for the sake of it --- this all feeds back into the overall goal of wanting us to appraise this project accurately when it emerges, and that keeping the celebratory instincts a bit restrained can help in that goal.
Needless to say, if they throw us a curve ball and the PLA officially discloses that the aircraft uses high thrust VCEs that are already in advanced/late stages of testing with a variety of impressive thrust and MTBO figures along with industrial metrics indicating smooth transition to mass production and service, then of course that would be different.

 

[coolgod]

Whatever amount of celebration that occurs, I'm obviously not going to actively disapprove or criticize during the process.

However before it emerges I am trying to pre-empt things, saying it would be useful for people to think a little bit and calibrate the extent of their celebration and enjoyment accurately.


This isn't because I'm being a downer for the sake of it --- this all feeds back into the overall goal of wanting us to appraise this project accurately when it emerges, and that keeping the celebratory instincts a bit restrained can help in that goal.
Needless to say, if they throw us a curve ball and the PLA officially discloses that the aircraft uses high thrust VCEs that are already in advanced/late stages of testing with a variety of impressive thrust and MTBO figures along with industrial metrics indicating smooth transition to mass production and service, then of course that would be different.

I always upvote messages along the line of Blitzo's that lowballs China's military prowess on reddit. Some of you guys are making SFA's job impossible to do. Hyping up China's NGAD/H20 is just going to scare American carriers out of the second island chain, that's not necessarily what China wants right now. Think about what would 局座 say?

 

[talonn]

I always upvote messages along the line of Blitzo's that lowballs China's military prowess on reddit. Some of you guys are making SFA's job impossible to do. Hyping up China's NGAD/H20 is just going to scare American carriers out of the second island chain, that's not necessarily what China wants right now. Think about what would 局座 say?

Which subreddit that has the same vibe as here in discussing china military? Sorry for oot a bit

 

[Deino]

Even as someone who approves of your sober approach over nationalist frenzy, I think it is too much to ask people not to celebrate raucously at such a huge milestone. Symbolically taking the lead in global fighter aircraft (even if the truth is far more nuanced) is the biggest breakthrough in PLAAF history.

I beg you all to be patient and even more rationale!

As much as I admire China's progress and you all surely know me, how much - sometimes over- excited I am, I beg you to calm down a bit: Is China indeed "taking the lead in global fighter aircraft"?

Surely if they will show the J-XD-demonstrator soon it is a major "breakthrough in PLAAF history", but we all know, that the USAF already has similar "demonstrators" flying since years! They only did not unveil them to the public yet.

Again, I do not want to downrate this "breakthrough", but to immedealtly jump the bandwaggon and call it "China is leading" is IMO too early ... As such you are correct with your second part: It is surely "Symbolically taking the lead in global fighter aircraft" development but to make a conclusion we simply do not know enough!

... even more so, it hasn't been unveiled yet.

 

[Gloire_bb]

J-20 is the F-15, F-22 is the Mig-25...

F-22 is clearly a fully capable fighter aircraft without interceptor restrictions.

Both are "f-15s".

Also, in context, being mig-25 isn't a bad analogy.
It's, for the most part, a very outdated BVR interceptor with a very reasonable score against absolutely lopsided odds.

Much more advanced mirages and even mig-29s didn't come even close.

 

[Wrought]

I beg you all to be patient and even more rationale!

As much as I admire China's progress and you all surely know me, how much - sometimes over- excited I am, I beg you to calm down a bit: Is China indeed "taking the lead in global fighter aircraft"?

Surely if they will show the J-XD-demonstrator soon it is a major "breakthrough in PLAAF history", but we all know, that the USAF already has similar "demonstrators" flying since years! They only did not unveil them to the public yet.

Again, I do not want to downrate this "breakthrough", but to immedealtly jump the bandwaggon and call it "China is leading" is IMO too early ... As such you are correct with your second part: It is surely "Symbolically taking the lead in global fighter aircraft" development but to make a conclusion we simply do not know enough!

... even more so, it hasn't been unveiled yet.

Well that's why I called it symbolic. Practical significance is limited since it is still many years from deployment. It's possible that it will also run into obstacles and reworks like NGAD, or that they end up as completely different platforms fulfilling different roles and "6th gen" becomes a meaningless term.

I do wonder how ugly it will be though.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

I always upvote messages along the line of Blitzo's that lowballs China's military prowess on reddit. Some of you guys are making SFA's job impossible to do. Hyping up China's NGAD/H20 is just going to scare American carriers out of the second island chain, that's not necessarily what China wants right now. Think about what would 局座 say?

Not disagreeing with your perspective, but Rick’s initial point emphasizes the importance of objectively evaluating the information at hand to form an accurate understanding. Bias is a big enemy to an objective analysis, and while it's understandable to be excited, adding emotions inappropriately will undermine our goal.

 

[Deino]

Well that's why I called it symbolic. Practical significance is limited since it is still many years from deployment. It's possible that it will also run into obstacles and reworks like NGAD, or that they end up as completely different platforms fulfilling different roles and "6th gen" becomes a meaningless term.

I do wonder how ugly it will be though.

I know and my reply was not meant to correct you or to contradict, but on the contrary, to confirm exactly what you said (namely, to be patient and wait). I'm sorry if I was unclear here.

 

[Blitzo]

Not disagreeing with your perspective, but Rick’s initial point emphasizes the importance of objectively evaluating the information at hand to form an accurate understanding. Bias is a big enemy to an objective analysis, and while it's understandable to be excited, adding emotions inappropriately will undermine our goal.

My last post on this matter -- just to add to the above quoted post, that I'm not criticizing people for having an emotional reaction to this upcoming development.

Rather, it is that I think it's also important to keep eyes on the prize, which is trying to get accurate and objective estimates/projection wrt PLA watching.
This was all only really spurred on because it seemed odd to me over recent weeks that no one else was really raising the possibility of J-XD having three engines might reflect a limitation of industry, rather than J-XD being wholesale an uber capable and large fighter (both are certainly possible as well).