PLA Navy news, pics and videos

Equation said:

Perhaps 10 "flattops" all together including air craft carriers and LHD combine?

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Bltizo said:

I think his post does have some potentially very useful granules of information but it has to be interpreted carefully.

He directly references the media reports of "six carriers by 2035" (probably one of the recent articles from SCMP lol), and he speaks derisively of that specific prediction.
The fact that he mentions the 2035 date specifically, which conveys that he thinks that number (6 carrierse) by 2035 is a low-ball.

OTOH, when he mentions 10+carriers, he doesn't give a specific date but rather talks about it like that is the number the PLAN is aiming for.


Based on that post and the way in which he phrases the salient points, I would argue that we can operate somewhat confidently with the idea that pop3 himself at least believes that 2035 may see the PLAN have more than only 6 carriers.
However, what actual specific number they have come 2035 is another matter, and whether it is 10 or 9 or 8 or 7 is anyone's guess.


Obviously the high end of that interpretation (10 carriers by 2035) is rather eyebrow raising -- but as you said, it's not impossible. And it goes without saying that 10 carriers by 2035 means there would inevitably have to be a certain pace of procurement of other relevant assets and subsystems at a similar pace as well. And given we know that the PLA is hardly going to be putting all of their eggs into the Navy's carrier force, if they do pursue 10 carriers by 2035 then that has even more consequences for just what kind of scale or procurement the PLA overall would be doing as a whole.

So cautiously I wouldn't call 10 carriers by 2035 a fanboy fantasy, but it's definitely a "goal" that needs to be treated carefully with the due respect for understanding of the systemic implications for PLA procurement it implies.

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Red Moon said:

More 054A's, starting production of 054B, more 052's and 055's, a new type 076, and construction of carrier #4 is about to start. All of this is believable and more or less takes care of the next 3-5 years. Perhaps in two years or even in one, we will be discussing the start of carrier #5, and whatever additional plans.

However, I find it hard to believe that the Chinese leadership has a specific "plan" for the number of carriers, or other ships, for that matter, for 2035. China is no longer #3, 4 or 5 in the world, but rather, a very solid #2. The global order has been at a sort of a tipping point for a couple of years now, and Covid-19 has only accelerated things. Therefore, while the country needs to build up it's forces to prepare for the worst, it also needs to avoid overkill: the navy is an expensive affair, and overall, economic and technological growth is still the priority for China.

Today, even more than before, China will be reacting to actual conditions, and like never before, this depends very heavily on the circumstances of it's main adversary. At every turn, China will be evaluating not only the military and strategic stance of the US, but its economic, social and political stability, as well as it's system of alliances. My point is not to get into such a discussion, but I've never seen such instability and unpredictability in the world (or the US itself), nor can I think of a similar period in history.

So if our "big shrimp" is deriding the figure of 6 carriers, and saying "why not 10+?", I absolutely agree with him. How the hell do you know what China will need in 2035? I don't even know who it's adversaries will be, much less how much power they will possess.

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KYli said:

What China needs now is deterrence. It is absolutely clear now that peaceful rise is next to impossible. Americans and American politicians don't understand restraint but they do understand hard power. That's why the buildup is no longer evolve only around adversaries and their capability but also a show of power. A few aircraft carriers especially nuclear ones are the best show of power and power projection. Even average Joe understands that. Therefore, as long as China can afford it then overkill is not a problem. I would argue overkill is the only way to deter Chinese adversaries from doing something stupid.

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Courier_Estel said:

054A接着造两位数，054B首舰建造会同步进行。
052系列和055继续并行建造。
071坞登和075两攻上批量，076即将建造。
003看来是受新冠疫情影响，但目前进度顺利。
004即将开工，“具有里程碑意义”。
Translation:
They would continue to build double-digit numbers of 054A, and the first ship of 054B will proceed simultaneously.
The 052 and 055 series will continue to be built in parallel.
071 Amphibious transport dock and 075 Amphibious assault ship would be built in batches, and 076 is about to be built.
003 appears to be affected by the COVID-19 situation, but progress is currently going well.
004 is about to start construction, "it would be a significant & historical meaning".
Picture and text from 鼎盛婆3

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Red Moon said:

I didn't intend to imply "peaceful rise", and I agree that overkill can be one of the choices. My main intention is to point out the unpredictability inherent in current conditions. I think choices will have to be made as the contest develops, so I don't think it's very meaningful to speculate as to how many carriers China will need in 2035.

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latenlazy said:

So just doing the math, assuming a construction speed of roughly 5 years per carrier with both Shanghai and Dalian building carriers concurrently, we could expect up to 6 new carriers by 2035. Add that to the three that are either complete or currently under construction, and we’d be looking at 9 carriers. The bigger bottleneck will probably be aircraft production, at the current rate...

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