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For the debacle that is currently going on in the SCS, I will only have this to say :
What goes around comes around, this issue have been left to fester for too long and too deep. If anything, a decisive act by on side can at least settle the matter once and for all, rather than to just let the matter drag on and simmer with no shortage of sniveling and covert acts of guile.
Secondly, it is clear that not a single party to the issue is keen on settling things by way of arbitration or negotiations. Because each one of them is playing for keeps and they are going all in. If they were all high and noble, this matter would have been settled ages ago(Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan included). They choose the rules of the game, so they can't complain when they are being outplayed by China.
This is how I see the issue, there are no angles in this mess only demons.

Bottomline is no one can push China out of Huangyandao. It's like watching a movie. Each party is playing it's supposed role. There could be some dramatic scenes, but we pretty much know how the movie is going to end.

US is playing the trouble maker. Philippine elect a wise president and they know very well that when things escalate, they'll be the one to take the loss, not the Americans.

According to "The nearest landmass is Palauig, Zambales on Luzon island in the Philippines, 220 km (137 mi) due east.". That is slightly wider than the Taiwan strait (about 180 km). So it is close to the Philippines mainland/main island but not that close.

longmarch said:

Bottomline is no one can push China out of Huangyandao. It's like watching a movie. Each party is playing it's supposed role. There could be some dramatic scenes, but we pretty much know how the movie is going to end.

US is playing the trouble maker. Philippine elect a wise president and they know very well that when things escalate, they'll be the one to take the loss, not the Americans.

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It is more political than military at this point. What we are interested in on this forum is how do the navies match up. This is also a good way to know how they communicate during such a situation. My gut feeling is this sort of scenarios will be quite popular in the coming decades.

Well Phillipine said she does not want to get involve. It is strange the country most affected couldn't care less but someone else did why is that so. In apparent dig the spoke person said US can take care of its own interest by itself



MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines said Sunday that it won’t get embroiled in a fresh spat between the U.S. and China involving Beijing’s protest of an American warship passing near a Chinese-controlled shoal also claimed by the Philippines.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque Jr. said that “the United States can take care of its own interest” and added “we do not wish to be part of a U.S.-China intramural” in the disputed South China Sea.

The Chinese government on Saturday accused the U.S. of trespassing in its territorial waters when a U.S. guided missile destroyer sailed near Scarborough Shoal to promote freedom of navigation in the disputed waters.

The Philippines also claims the shoal, which is a tiny, uninhabited reef that China seized from the Philippines in 2012 after a tense maritime standoff.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has revived once-frosty relations with China since taking power in 2016 and often criticizes U.S. security policies. He has rejected planned joint patrols by the U.S. and Philippine navies in disputed South China Sea waters along with joint combat exercises that could offend China.

His predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, backed a continued U.S. presence in the region to serve as a counterweight to China.

Under Aquino, the Philippines brought its disputes with China in the South China Sea to international arbitration in 2013 and overwhelmingly won the case three years later. China refused to participate and ignored the decision.

Duterte has refused to demand immediate Chinese compliance with the 2016 arbitration ruling, which invalidated China’s vast territorial claims to the South China Sea on historical grounds. He has promised, however, to take up the arbitration ruling with China at a still-unspecified time during his six-year presidency.

China claims virtually the entire South China Sea and has carried out extensive land reclamation work on many of the islands and reefs it claims, equipping some with air strips and military installations that have alarmed rival claimant countries and Western governments led by the United States.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said Saturday that China would take “necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty after the USS Hopper sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday evening without China’s permission.

Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the U.S., Manila’s treaty ally, did not notify the Philippines of its naval operation near Scarborough.

“We have no say over whatever the Americans do in the South China Sea. They do not inform us beforehand of their activities there,” Lorenzana said.


Asked if the passage of the U.S. warship in Philippine-claimed waters was a concern, Lorenzana said: “No, for as long as they are on innocent passage. International law allows innocent passage even in territorial waters.”

The United States does not claim territory in the South China Sea but has declared it has a national interest in ensuring that the territorial disputes there are resolved peacefully in accordance with international law.

The U.S. Navy regularly sails through the area to assert freedom of navigation.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Well Phillipine said she does not want to get involve. It is strange the country most affected couldn't care less but someone else did why is that so. In apparent dig the spoke person said US can take care of its own interest by itself

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Yes, it is the quad (US, Japan, India, Australia) vs. China, using SCS as a topic and the battleground. Has little to do with the South China Sea countries. Just like Japan/Russia war fighting on Chinese ground in 1904.

jobjed said:

There is no difference in the UNCLOS between territorial boundary surrounding islands and shoals. Both are entitled to 12 nautical miles of sovereign waters. Scarborough shoal isn't entitled to EEZs like an island would but it is entitled to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters.

I don't know where you read 3 nautical miles or whatever but no such boundary exists.

Here's the relevant section on territorial waters, starting page 27.

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As U.S. is not a signatory of UNCLOS, therefor U.S. does not recognize anything defined by it (12 NM territorial water for shoal). I don't think there can be any meaningful debate between Jeff and you and others who regard UNCLOS as legally binding.

taxiya said:

As U.S. is not a signatory of UNCLOS, therefor U.S. does not recognize anything defined by it (12 NM territorial water for shoal). I don't think there can be any meaningful debate between Jeff and you and others who regard UNCLOS as legally binding.

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Then my aim will be to accomplish one of the following:

1. Inform him of his incorrect understanding of UNCLOS and allow him to better understand the situation at hand
2. Uncover any potential double standards he may be holding in expecting China to abide by rules he does not expect other countries including his own to follow
3. Force him to admit he does not hold the UNCLOS in any regard and doesn't expect his country nor China to abide by it

If it's the first case, everything is fine and he arrives at the correct interpretation of UNCLOS. If it's the second case, he proves himself belligerent and disingenuous, and if it's the second case, he proves himself a hypocrite. I certainly hope the first case will come to pass but I'm also perfectly fine with the alternatives.

duncanidaho said:

Part of the description and the picture of the island in your link is false, it describes and shows the Duncan island of the Paracel group.
The channel leading into the lagoon is located in the southeast and not north.

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not sure what you're saying, but LOL your picture needs to be rotated by about forty degrees counterclockwise to get oriented to the geographical north:

Jura said:

not sure what you're saying, but LOL your picture needs to be rotated by about forty degrees counterclockwise to get oriented to the geographical north:

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What he said is very clear. The pictures Jeff used as the proof that China developed Scarborough Shoal was incorrect. He was most likely fooled by inaccurate news stories from mainstream medias who do not check the pictures before they publish them. This happens to CNN, TheDiplomat... just about every one.

AFAIK Scarborough Shoal remains undeveloped. The local government suggested some land survey was going on. But the central government denied any progress.

The picture shown by Jeff was another island named Duncan Island. On this island there were land fill activities and subsequent road/buildings. But the media story where Jeff got his information was misleading its readers into believing the picture was Scarborough Shoal.