bro i don't understand this logic. i mean J-36 still minimum 8 years away and J-XDS maybe be further away. so J-20+J-35 production could hit the peak in coming years. by the time J-36 will enter in service CAC will make some arrangement for new airframe. it is what it is.. but yeah at the end its all depend on PLAAF/PLAN need.
please elaborate little more about J-20/J-35 peak production in coming years.
Well, the bolded phrase is the key.
Great sign of progress, big headache for logistics.
We don't expect the J-36 and J-XDS to enter active service before the end of this decade.
As of December 2024, China operates:
- At least 300+ J-20s;
- At least 300+ J-16/Ds;
- Around 550+ J-10A/B/Cs;
- Around 300+ J-11/A/Bs;
- Around 100+ J-7 and J-8IIs;
- Around 130+ Su-27/30/35s; and
- Around 150+ JH-7/As (fighter-bomber).
(Note that some of the above figures may be outdated/inaccurate.)
Going into the 2030s and beyond, I expect that every single fighter in PLAAF service must be equipped with AESA radars as the bare minimum. That means all the remaining J-7s, J-8IIs, J-11/As and Su-27/30/35s should be retired (i.e. total of at least 400+ fighters) by 2030.
In addition, the J-11BGs, J-10A/B/Cs and JH-7/As are to be succeeded by the J-20/A/Ss, J-35As and J-16/Ds in their roles respectively. Hence, I don't think a lot of them are going to stick around into the 2030s, especially once the J-36 and J-XDS enters serial production alongside large numbers of more capable U(C)AVs starting in the 2030s.
That means going into the next decade, the J-16/Ds will be the largest (if not the only) 4th-gen fighter fleet in the PLAAF.
Moreover, with such high annual production rates of the 5th-gen fighters expected in the late-2020s and the early-2030s (Around 100 J-20s, sustained + at least 50 J-35As), the J-20/A/Ss and J-35As will constitute the majority of China's fighter fleets for the 2030s and 2040s.
