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ACuriousPLAFan

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View attachment 142898

Shenhua also said this as a reply in the comment section underneath that quote-post:

shenhua5thgenfutureproduction.png

本当面白: Here's a question - Why couldn't the south (Chengdu AC) keep increasing the production rate (of the J-20)?
Shenhua: IF the combined (Chengdu + Shenyang) annual production rate of 5th-gen fighters can reach 180-200 airframes (in the coming years/future), (the efforts required for) switching over from existing fighter models to new fighter models, plus retraining fighter pilots (to fly these new fighter models) also puts huge pressure on the fighter squadrons (and the PLAAF as a whole).

(Yes, I bolded that "if" word because I know some people are just gonna jump the gun when they see the "180-200" figure claim.)

For one, I certainly don't think that Shenyang AC's capability to build close to, if not similar number of 5th-gens as Chengdu AC is currently doing once their new production site is up and running is out of the question, should the need arises.

Despite this, it should also be noted that depending on the progress of the J-36 and J-XDS (alongside the realistic needs of the PLAAF and PLANAF as a whole), there are chances where we may not see China's 5th-gen production rate reaching as high as stipulated by Shenhua above.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Shenhua also said this as a reply in the comment section underneath that quote-post:

View attachment 142905




(Yes, I bolded that "if" word because I know some people are just gonna jump the gun when they see the "180-200" figure claim.)

For one, I certainly don't think that Shenyang AC's capability to build close to, if not similar number of 5th-gens as Chengdu AC is currently doing once their new production site is up and running is out of the question, should the need arises.

Despite this, it should also be noted that depending on the progress of the J-36 and J-XDS (alongside the realistic needs of the PLAAF and PLANAF as a whole), there are chances where we may not see China's 5th-gen production rate reaching as high as stipulated by Shenhua above.
bro i don't understand this logic. i mean J-36 still minimum 8 years away and J-XDS maybe be further away. so J-20+J-35 production could hit the peak in coming years. by the time J-36 will enter in service CAC will make some arrangement for new airframe. it is what it is.. but yeah at the end its all depend on PLAAF/PLAN need.

please elaborate little more about J-20/J-35 peak production in coming years.
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
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Previously discussed in the J-35 thread of the Navy forum, with the discussion moved here, judging on recent developments.



Latest satellite photo update (January 2025) on the new Shenyang AC production site located north of Shenyang, posted by @HMS_Astute in the comment section underneath Shenhua's post about the expected annual production rate of China's 5th-gen fighters in the coming years on Weibo.

The site looks less likely to be ready by the middle of this year, although the main assembly hall has already topped-out and the runway has started construction.

View attachment 142895

Approximate location of the new Shenyang AC production site on Google Maps:
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Location of the current Shenyang AC production site (for reference):
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The runway looks to be in an earlier state than the hall (though perhaps it'll be finished rather quickly), but couldn't they begin utilizing the hall before waiting for the runway to be done? Assuming it's still more or less on track for this summer I'd expect production to begin more like H1 '26 the latest not '27.

Also how much annual J-35 production can we expect from the older facility in Shenyang (including any expansion there)?
 

Wrought

Junior Member
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China definitely need more than 1,000 5th gen fighter jets if a war with US is inevitable. China has to prepared for battles with almost all F-35 available to US and its allies.

History of US ganged up with its allies against an opponent has been modus operandi for more than 100 years, examples Boxer rebellion, Korean war, Vietnam war, Gulf war, Balkan war, Afghan war to current Ukraine war (NATO proxy war against Russians). In Ukraine war, US and the West keep on supplying war materials from NATO and non-NATO countries. The same could happen if F-35 stocks in USAF and USN Air Wing get depleted in air battles against China, they will need to "loan" whatever number of F-35 available from its allies and friendly nations.

Also adding 200 F-22 to 1,000 F-35 manufactured so far, China may face a posibility of of 1,200 5 gen fighter from opponent camps.

Therefore 1,200 J20 and J35/A should be the minimum. And to keep PLAAF and PLAN Aviation functioning after heavy attrition losses, a few hundred more 5th gen are needed, and also 6th gen when they started serial production in the next decades.

Comparing numbers on paper is completely the wrong way to go about it. 1000 fighters are useless if 900 are stuck in CONUS and the last 100 are scattered across a bunch of islands with terrible infrastructure that only lets them fly one sortie per week. Power projection is about projection as much (or more) than it is about power.

Stop focusing on individual platforms and start thinking in terms of systems.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now that when you think about it - China is the only country in the entire world to fly domestically-produced fighter jets across FOUR generations simultaneously:

3rd-generation: J-7, J-8II
4th-generation: J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16
5th-generation: J-20, J-35, J-35A
6th-generation: J-36, J-XDS

What a time to be alive...
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now that when you think about it - China is the only country in the entire world to fly domestically-produced fighter jets across FOUR generations simultaneously:

3rd-generation: J-7, J-8II
4th-generation: J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16
5th-generation: J-20, J-35, J-35A
6th-generation: J-36, J-XDS

What a time to be alive...

Great sign of progress, big headache for logistics. Hopefully they retire the remaining 3rd-gens soon.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
bro i don't understand this logic. i mean J-36 still minimum 8 years away and J-XDS maybe be further away. so J-20+J-35 production could hit the peak in coming years. by the time J-36 will enter in service CAC will make some arrangement for new airframe. it is what it is.. but yeah at the end its all depend on PLAAF/PLAN need.

please elaborate little more about J-20/J-35 peak production in coming years.

Well, the bolded phrase is the key.

Great sign of progress, big headache for logistics.

We don't expect the J-36 and J-XDS to enter active service before the end of this decade.

As of December 2024, China operates:
- At least 300+ J-20s;
- At least 300+ J-16/Ds;
- Around 550+ J-10A/B/Cs;
- Around 300+ J-11/A/Bs;
- Around 100+ J-7 and J-8IIs;
- Around 130+ Su-27/30/35s; and
- Around 150+ JH-7/As (fighter-bomber).

(Note that some of the above figures may be outdated/inaccurate.)

Going into the 2030s and beyond, I expect that every single fighter in PLAAF service must be equipped with AESA radars as the bare minimum. That means all the remaining J-7s, J-8IIs, J-11/As and Su-27/30/35s should be retired (i.e. total of at least 400+ fighters) by 2030.

In addition, the J-11BGs, J-10A/B/Cs and JH-7/As are to be succeeded by the J-20/A/Ss, J-35As and J-16/Ds in their roles respectively. Hence, I don't think a lot of them are going to stick around into the 2030s, especially once the J-36 and J-XDS enters serial production alongside large numbers of more capable U(C)AVs starting in the 2030s.

That means going into the next decade, the J-16/Ds will be the largest (if not the only) 4th-gen fighter fleet in the PLAAF.

Moreover, with such high annual production rates of the 5th-gen fighters expected in the late-2020s and the early-2030s (Around 100 J-20s, sustained + at least 50 J-35As), the J-20/A/Ss and J-35As will constitute the majority of China's fighter fleets for the 2030s and 2040s.
 

by78

General
I'm pretty sure this is a sheet of
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. The images are taken from a
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on stealth materials and technologies.

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51910242518_db6a6d5b01_o.png

This
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has relevance to a range of stealth platforms. It's a multi-band stealth
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that is bullet-proof and light-weight.

The invention relates to the technical field of functional composite materials, in particular to a lightweight, low-thickness, long-term and reliable multiband radar stealth and bulletproof integrated metamaterial which comprises a ceramic layer, an ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber composite material bulletproof layer, a graphene metamaterial filtering layer, an ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber composite material loss layer and a carbon fiber reflecting layer which are sequentially stacked. According to the invention, two layers of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber resin composite materials are used as loss layers, the circuit resonance of the graphene metamaterial filter layer is utilized to generate pass bands and stop bands, the working conditions of the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber resin composite material layers in different radar wave bands are controlled, and a structure capable of generating lambda/4 resonance at low frequency and high frequency simultaneously is further established, so that a wider absorption frequency band is realized in a plurality of wave bands, and the adaptability of the prepared radar stealth bulletproof integrated fiber reinforced resin composite metamaterial under radar detection in different wave bands is greatly expanded.

54264466680_c5791a66d9_h.jpg
 

by78

General
A patent on a multi-spectral adaptive camouflage. Unfortunately, I don't have access to the patent itself. If anyone has it, please share.

本发明提供了一种多光谱隐身蒙皮及其自适应伪装系统,所述多光谱隐身蒙皮包括从上至下依次连接的低红外发射层、微波吸收层以及加热层,所述微波吸收层中包括可见光隐身层,所述可见光隐身层为通过温致变色胶囊与聚二甲基硅氧烷通过注塑工艺制备的环境拟态薄膜。所述应用包括将该多光谱隐身蒙皮应用于环境自适应多光谱兼容隐身蒙皮系统中,所述自适应伪装系统包括:环境识别单元、控制系统单元以及多光谱隐身蒙皮。通过本发明的多光谱隐身蒙皮以及自适应伪装系统,具备较强的雷达‑红外隐身及环境自适应可见光隐身能力,具有较高的商业化价值与推广价值。
The invention is a multi-spectral stealth skin and an adaptive camouflage system, wherein the multi-spectral stealth skin comprises a low infrared emission layer, a microwave absorption layer and a heating layer connected in sequence from top to bottom, wherein the microwave absorption layer comprises a visible light stealth layer, and the visible light stealth layer is an environmental mimicry film prepared by injection molding of thermochromic capsules and polydimethylsiloxane. The application comprises applying the multi-spectral stealth skin to an environmentally adaptive multi-spectral compatible stealth skin system, wherein the adaptive camouflage system comprises: an environmental recognition unit, a control system unit and a multi-spectral stealth skin. The multi-spectral stealth skin and the adaptive camouflage system of the present invention have strong radar-infrared stealth and environmentally adaptive visible light stealth capabilities, and have high commercial value and promotion value.

54264304879_417e2ae433_k.jpg
 
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