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tphuang

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In fact I'm a bit sceptical about such claims! Yes, the J-35 or a land-based variant would IMO make sense for the PLAAF but if we rate the current J-35 prototypes equivalent to the J-20 prototypes 2011 & 2011, which both flew in 2011, the J-35 is still a few years away from service entry even if we assume it can be done quicker than with the J-20 and before the naval J-35 due to the not necessary carrier tests.

But anyway, I don't expect this could be possible only at least in 2025 or even 2026 given 350001 flew first only in October 2021 (based on J-20 flight testing from Jan. 2011 to January 2016 = 5 years between maiden flight pf prototype no. 01 (aka 2011) and first pre-serial (no. 2101).

All these overhyped dreams, the J-35 could enter serial production already next year are IMO far from realistic.
It took just 2 years from 2011 until the first J-20s got handed over to CETC IIRC. Why should J-35 take longer than that? I'm just curious about your objection to that idea. Seems to me that J-35 flying off CV-18 not year is pretty reasonable timeframe.
 

Deino

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It took just 2 years from 2011 until the first J-20s got handed over to CETC IIRC. Why should J-35 take longer than that? I'm just curious about your objection to that idea. Seems to me that J-35 flying off CV-18 not year is pretty reasonable timeframe.


CETC? What's this or do you mean CFTE? If the latter, then yes, but testing at the CFTE is not entering frontline serice, it was just the next phase of flight testing ... and again, the first prototype flew in January 2011 with the first serial/LRIP bird almost exactly five years later in January 2016 and hand over to the PLAAF - 176th AB at Dingxin - then on December 12, 2016.

So why should a totally different aircraft, developed in fact for naval service have such a dramatically shorter development and test-phase than the J-20? IMO 5.5 years are already impressive!

As such, the J-35 starting tests off the Fujian, this could indeed be done earlier - maybe in 2024/25 - but surely not service entry.
 

tphuang

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CETC? What's this or do you mean CFTE? If the latter, then yes, but testing at the CFTE is not entering frontline serice, it was just the next phase of flight testing ... and again, the first prototype flew in January 2011 with the first serial/LRIP bird almost exactly five years later in January 2016 and hand over to the PLAAF - 176th AB at Dingxin - then on December 12, 2016.

So why should a totally different aircraft, developed in fact for naval service have such a dramatically shorter development and test-phase than the J-20? IMO 5.5 years are already impressive!

As such, the J-35 starting tests off the Fujian, this could indeed be done earlier - maybe in 2024/25 - but surely not service entry.
Yeah, CFTE. My memory is so bad these days.

This may just be semantics, but 2101 was considered to be LRIP model. You don't need to be in service or have achieved IOC to start low rate serial production. I think starting production of first production batch in 2024/2025 seems reasonable.
 

Blitzo

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In fact I'm a bit sceptical about such claims! Yes, the J-35 or a land-based variant would IMO make sense for the PLAAF but if we rate the current J-35 prototypes equivalent to the J-20 prototypes 2011 & 2011, which both flew in 2011, the J-35 is still a few years away from service entry even if we assume it can be done quicker than with the J-20 and before the naval J-35 due to the not necessary carrier tests.

But anyway, I don't expect this could be possible only at least in 2025 or even 2026 given 350001 flew first only in October 2021 (based on J-20 flight testing from Jan. 2011 to January 2016 = 5 years between maiden flight pf prototype no. 01 (aka 2011) and first pre-serial (no. 2101).

All these overhyped dreams, the J-35 could enter serial production already next year are IMO far from realistic.

The current J-35 prototypes should be equivalent of 2011 onwards, which first flew in 2014.

IMO FC-31V1 and V2 are closer approximations to J-20 2001, 2002.

There are some differences of course given J-XY/35 is carrier based and structurally fairly different to FC-31, but at the same time we can't deny the lineage of FC-31 to J-XY, nor how the J-XY prototypes appear to be much more refined and and representative of final likely production article than J-20 2001/2 were.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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In fact I'm a bit sceptical about such claims! Yes, the J-35 or a land-based variant would IMO make sense for the PLAAF but if we rate the current J-35 prototypes equivalent to the J-20 prototypes 2011 & 2011, which both flew in 2011, the J-35 is still a few years away from service entry even if we assume it can be done quicker than with the J-20 and before the naval J-35 due to the not necessary carrier tests.

But anyway, I don't expect this could be possible only at least in 2025 or even 2026 given 350001 flew first only in October 2021 (based on J-20 flight testing from Jan. 2011 to January 2016 = 5 years between maiden flight pf prototype no. 01 (aka 2011) and first pre-serial (no. 2101).

All these overhyped dreams, the J-35 could enter serial production already next year are IMO far from realistic.
Sure, though I didn't mention that the J-35/31 could enter serial production next year, whether that be naval-based or land-based variant. I just mention "quickly".

However, speaking of land-based variant of the J-35/31 - The fighter jet has been undergoing numerous flight tests since 2014 (in various iterations and improvements over the previous ones, of course). Besides, there has been zero instances of any J-35/31 being tested in naval environments, which means all flight tests conducted so far are land-based.

Therefore, if anything, I think it is fair to say that a land-based variant J-35/31 is much, much more ready for introduction into PLAAF service than a carrier-based J-35/31 for PLANAF service ever would, even if Shenyang has no initial plans for the J-35/31 to have a land-based variant. Hence, as previously mentioned - If the PLA CMC demands the land-based variant of the J-35/31 to be delivered to the PLAAF ASAP, Shenyang has little reason to say no.

Heck, if the Chinese leadership views that war will break out in the WestPac within the next 1-2 years, who else in the PLA CMC and PLAAF cares whether the land-based variant of the J-35/31 is actually fully ready for service beforehand? As long as the land-based J-35/31s can function like any fighter would, they would be sent to the frontlines anyway - and Shenyang would be ordered by Beijing to hasten the remainder of the land-based J-35/31's development - Or even transform straight away to serial production ASAP.
 
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Blitzo

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Sure, though I didn't mention that the J-35/31 could enter serial production next year, whether that be naval-based or land-based variant. I just mention "quickly".

However, speaking of land-based variant of the J-35/31 - The fighter jet has been undergoing numerous flight tests since 2014 (in various iterations and improvements over the previous ones, of course). Besides, there has been zero instances of any J-35/31 being tested in naval environments, which means all flight tests conducted so far are land-based.

Therefore, if anything, I think it is fair to say that a land-based variant J-35/31 is much, much more ready for introduction into PLAAF service than a carrier-based J-35/31 for PLANAF service ever would, even if Shenyang has no initial plans for the J-35/31 to have a land-based variant. Hence, as previously mentioned - If the PLA CMC demands the land-based variant of the J-35/31 to be delivered to the PLAAF ASAP, Shenyang has little reason to say no.

Heck, if the Chinese leadership views that war will break out in the WestPac within the next 1-2 years, who else in the PLA CMC and PLAAF cares whether the land-based variant of the J-35/31 is actually fully ready for service beforehand? As long as the land-based J-35/31s can function like any fighter would, they would be sent to the frontlines anyway - and Shenyang would be ordered by Beijing to hasten the remainder of the land-based J-35/31's development - Or even transform straight away to serial production ASAP.

Can you chill out with the "war is imminent within a few years" theme that you're making across so many different threads?

If you want to discuss hypothetically how XYZ project may or may not be able to be fielded within a given timespan, then that's fine, and if you want to relate it to a hypothetical conflict within a given timespan that is fine as well, but speaking about it with such a sense of panic and fear isn't really useful for anyone.

For us doing geopolitical observation and military watching, by nature it means that we are interested in a topic that if things were to come to a head, they would result in significant deaths, destruction, and upending of the world we live in and likely yield personal effects as well, and perhaps even result in our own deaths or deaths of our loved ones.
Please make peace with that knowledge so that we can talk about other things in a more calm and less panicked manner -- that applies to everyone by the way.


In the case of J-XY/35 or a land based variant, if the goal is to get a land based variant in service within two years -- if SAC dropped everything else to redirect resources to it, then sure it may be slightly possible, in the sense that at the end of the two years they might be able to get a small handful technically "in service". Half a dozen or perhaps even a dozen airframes, that are relatively immature, and lack the tactics/training/procedures and lack the logistics/support network to make use of such a small token force.

If this question is meant to be "how can the PLA maximize their 5th generation fighter numbers within two years" then the best way to pursue it would be continuing to ramp up J-20s given it is in production and s much more mature product.


Back in the real world, as it stands, we are not even fully sure if the PLA will still pursue a land based J-XY/35 variant for itself as a land based 5th gen complement to J-20 given how many J-20s we expect them to build.
And even if they do pursue a land based J-XY/35, and it makes a maiden flight tomorrow, it will likely still take 3 years of flight testing (or more depending on how many modifications it has from the standard carrier based J-XY/35), and true mass production will only occur by 2027 or 2028.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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Can you chill out with the "war is imminent within a few years" theme that you're making across so many different threads?

If you want to discuss hypothetically how XYZ project may or may not be able to be fielded within a given timespan, then that's fine, and if you want to relate it to a hypothetical conflict within a given timespan that is fine as well, but speaking about it with such a sense of panic and fear isn't really useful for anyone.

For us doing geopolitical observation and military watching, by nature it means that we are interested in a topic that if things were to come to a head, they would result in significant deaths, destruction, and upending of the world we live in and likely yield personal effects as well, and perhaps even result in our own deaths or deaths of our loved ones.
Please make peace with that knowledge so that we can talk about other things in a more calm and less panicked manner -- that applies to everyone by the way.
I think you are confused. Though, I have no interest nor intention to explain that.

In the case of J-XY/35 or a land based variant, if the goal is to get a land based variant in service within two years -- if SAC dropped everything else to redirect resources to it, then sure it may be slightly possible, in the sense that at the end of the two years they might be able to get a small handful technically "in service". Half a dozen or perhaps even a dozen airframes, that are relatively immature, and lack the tactics/training/procedures and lack the logistics/support network to make use of such a small token force.

If this question is meant to be "how can the PLA maximize their 5th generation fighter numbers within two years" then the best way to pursue it would be continuing to ramp up J-20s given it is in production and s much more mature product.

Back in the real world, as it stands, we are not even fully sure if the PLA will still pursue a land based J-XY/35 variant for itself as a land based 5th gen complement to J-20 given how many J-20s we expect them to build.
And even if they do pursue a land based J-XY/35, and it makes a maiden flight tomorrow, it will likely still take 3 years of flight testing (or more depending on how many modifications it has from the standard carrier based J-XY/35), and true mass production will only occur by 2027 or 2028.
Like I said - A big IF - China wants many 5th-gen fighters entering service quickly, a land-based J-35/31 is another way that China could pursue, other than increasing the production rate of the J-20. If not, then the later should be pursued - That's my main point.

The notion of "China foresees a war happening within the next 2 years" is me setting an example stage set for how China may justify introducing the land-based variant of J-35/31 into active service earlier than planned/preferred by Shenyang and the PLAAF. That's all it has to it.

So why the hell are you thinking so much into that?
 
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Blitzo

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I think you are confused. Though, I have no interest to explain that.

Many of your posts have fair questions, but they are often also associated by panic and fear and expression of grievances.
This is not a formal warning, just to advise you to please reduce that sort of writing.
If it does persist into the future, formal warnings may be necessary.


Like I said - A big IF - China wants many 5th-gen fighters entering service quickly, a land-based J-35/31 is another way that China could pursue, other than increasing the production rate of the J-20. If not, then the later should be pursued - That's my main point.

If China wanted as many 5th gen fighters to enter service quickly, pursuing a land based J-35/XY is probably a distant third on the list of likely options.
1st would be to push J-20 production further.
2nd would be to accelerate the development and entry into production of the standard J-35/XY (even though it is carrier based, it has at least been in testing for over two years), however it is a bit of a distant second
3rd would be to rush development and production of a land based J-35/XY variant, but it is very much a distant third even more so than the 2nd.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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Many of your posts have fair questions, but they are often also associated by panic and fear and expression of grievances.
This is not a formal warning, just to advise you to please reduce that sort of writing.
If it does persist into the future, formal warnings may be necessary.
My comment WRT your allegation remains the same.

If China wanted as many 5th gen fighters to enter service quickly, pursuing a land based J-35/XY is probably a distant third on the list of likely options.
1st would be to push J-20 production further.
2nd would be to accelerate the development and entry into production of the standard J-35/XY (even though it is carrier based, it has at least been in testing for over two years), however it is a bit of a distant second
3rd would be to rush development and production of a land based J-35/XY variant, but it is very much a distant third even more so than the 2nd.
Sure. I think at least we can agree on this.
 

by78

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The air base at Ningxiang (宁乡) looks finished.

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