Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

MwRYum said:

Things would hardly go south unless somebody FUBAR on the ROE and gone trigger happy, just somebody gonna feel the chill due to sanction-tariffs and other punitive measures.

ASEAN got very little collective legitimacy and very incapable by all account, its prima-delta agenda of "not interfere with member states' internal affairs" made it incapable to do anything more than an economic forum (in contrast, EU has far more power, but too much bureaucracy) - just look at how incapable it is to deal with the annual smog comes from Indonesia's slash-and-burn farming practice!

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This whole mess is a pretty good example, all it ever takes is one errant shot, and with so many competing parties and interests and so many units to control, its only a matter of time before more incidents like this start becoming more common place. And the role nationalism should never be discounted, Abe is clearly enjoying the spotlight and using political capital to garner support, this could lead to at the very least more visits to Yasukuni and the Koreans i'm sure would never put past the Japanese to use this new found freedom of force to leverage claims on the Dokdo islands.

Other than that, this could be a re-emergence of client/vassal style politics, splitting political alignments according to who backs who, though ideally the US would enter serious negotiations before it balloons to that point, reeling in Japan would be another issue altogether.

You guys should read some of the comments made by Filipinos on news sites. It's hilarious how deluded these people are:



They've somehow managed to convince themselves that Taiwan doesn't dare attack PH because China would invade TW in response.

Latest Chinese news sources stayed that phillipines will sent a representative to Taiwan and offer formal apology. I think that will be that. We can move on from this, the western press brush this incident with minimum fuss while looking for the next big bad china story to focus on

getready said:

Latest Chinese news sources stayed that phillipines will sent a representative to Taiwan and offer formal apology. I think that will be that. We can move on from this, the western press brush this incident with minimum fuss while looking for the next big bad china story to focus on

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Well, if the Filipinos officially apologize AND pay reparations to the family, then they will have been made to do those things, which is excatly what should happen, and Tawan will have stood up and demanded these things and gotten them. What more do you want?

As to then projecting somehow that this is in some way insufficient and somehow linked to a western press conspiracy against China is simply ludicrous and reveals your own bias. Let's wait and see what happens before we make such a prescient judgement call.

As it is, the Filipinos are going to be sorely embarrassed, will have to officially and publicalluy apologize, and pay the family of the man they killed. All of which things should happen in such a circumstance.

Now, if the Filipinos are not forced to pay, then Taiwan will have not come out of this looking strong IMHO. An apology is required, but payment for the pain and anguish, and hopefully large enough to also be a punishment, is also required.

Jeff Head said:

Well, if the Filipinos officially apologize AND pay reparations to the family, then they will have been made to do those things, which is excatly what should happen, and Tawan will have stood up and demanded these things and gotten them. What more do you want?

As to then projecting somehow that this is in some way insufficient and somehow linked to a western press conspiracy against China is simply ludicrous and reveals your own bias. Let's wait and see what happens before we make such a prescient judgement call.

As it is, the Filipinos are going to be sorely embarrassed, will have to officially and publicalluy apologize, and pay the family of the man they killed. All of which things should happen in such a circumstance.

Now, if the Filipinos are not forced to pay, then Taiwan will have not come out of this looking strong IMHO. An apology is required, but payment for the pain and anguish, and hopefully large enough to also be a punishment, is also required.

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It looks like PH is not willing to pay compensation:

article said:

The Philippines, however, have failed to reach agreement with Taiwan on how to compensate for the death of the 65-year-old Taiwanese fisherman, Hung Shih-cheng (洪石成), who was shot dead in the incident, reports said.

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Sweet! So the plot thickens as Manila refuses to apologize!

I am very eager to see Taiwan's reaction.

solarz said:

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It looks like PH is not willing to pay compensation:

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Well, it sounded like they were going to send someone to apologize, but that they have not determined yet how to pay compensation. Not necessarily that they will not pay anything. That's how I read this.

The answer however is simple from Taiwan's pespective. They have given a clear ultimatum. If the Filipinos will not adequately compensate the family for their wrongful killing of the man, then Taiwan simply must make good on its promise to freeze Filipino immigration and work permits, and to take the case to international court.

IMHO, they should also maintain a permanent naval patrol there in those waters to protect their people...and keep the Filipino coast guard out...until this is adequately settled. Taiwan has more than enough naval and air strength to do this...and should.

cn_habs said:

Sweet! So the plot thickens as Manila refuses to apologize!

I am very eager to see Taiwan's reaction.

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Sweet?

What?...are you hoping for a conflict or omething? I hope not.

This is not sweet, it is tragic for that family, and could get a lot more tragic for a lot more people.

What would be sweet would be for the Filipinos to acknowledge the mistake, punish the members of its forces who did this, and then to compensate the family for the wrongful killing of the man.

I hope and pray they come to their senses and do this...from that article they seem close. It sounds like they are willing to apologize, and that they are discussing how to compensate the family (which usually means how much they will pay). I did not read that the Filipinos are refusing to apologize or compensate.

Taiwan may have to exert more pressure to get this done...and that is fine. PArticularly as the Filipinos have missed the deadline. but if they are simply negotiating the last portion of this (ie. how much to pay) in good faith, then waiting a few more hours would be better than escalating.

We shall see.

Jeff Head said:

Taiwan may have to exert more pressure to get this done...and that is fine. PArticularly as the Filipinos have missed the deadline. but if they are simply negotiating the last portion of this (ie. how much to pay) in good faith, then waiting a few more hours would be better than escalating.

We shall see.

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There are many who feel that the deadline of 72 hours is already far too generous. If the result sought was only an apology, the deadline should have been 72 minutes.

The fact that the PH government has waited until the last minute, literally, to offer an apology, and is still negotiating a compensation, speaks volume about their sincerity.

I suspect many in Taiwan will not be satisfied by this response.

Keep in mind that Taiwanese fishermen has been killed by PH law enforcement.

solarz said:

No, China should do nothing until Taiwan actually requests help (unlikely).

In fact, there is no reason why Taiwan *shouldn't* do so, aside from perhaps incurring the displeasure of the US.

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__by solarz


Taiwan need not to worry too much about US position. because it was Philippines who stirred up this hornets nest. both Taiwan and Philippines are friends/allies/pawns in the anti china game. to contain china's rise is the highest priority in American strategy in asia pacific region and both Taiwan & Philippines are playing their respective given parts in this show. but Taiwan is way more important than the Philippines is. if Taiwan one day settles its dispute with the mainland and they both reunited into a single entity of some sort, the US will have lost asia to china. that's how important Taiwan is, the Philippines on the other hand is just another banana republic.

solarz said:

There are many who feel that the deadline of 72 hours is already far too generous. If the result sought was only an apology, the deadline should have been 72 minutes.

The fact that the PH government has waited until the last minute, literally, to offer an apology, and is still negotiating a compensation, speaks volume about their sincerity.

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It is true that an off-the-cuff statement could have been made in 72 minutes. But such a statement would have given the Filipinos no time to ensure that they themselves had the full story and could analyze why the commander on the scene acted as he did. Such quick reactions are rarely how diploamatic exchanges occur, precisely because of the danger of them being too knee jerk. 72 hours is actually a very fast time in diplomatic circles...even for something like this.

The Phillipines sent someone to try and settle this well before the deadline, and apparently they are negotiating on the wording and compensation package.

If that is true, then things are moving along quickly and Taiwan will be best served by giving it a few more hours if they feel it is being done in good faith. If they fail, then Taiwan needs to exert more pressure and follow through on their ultimatum until the Filipinos do respond in good faith and appropriately.