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British officials said President Barack Obama "has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture" before the US election next year, but "warned the calculus could change because of mounting anxiety over intelligence gathered by Western agencies, and [Iran's] more belligerent posture."

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43. The information indicates that Iran has carried out the following activities that are relevant to the
development of a nuclear explosive device:
• Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual use equipment and materials by
military related individuals and entities (Annex, Sections C.1 and C.2);
• Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material (Annex,
Section C.3);
• The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a
clandestine nuclear supply network (Annex, Section C.4); and
• Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of
components (Annex, Sections C.5–C.12).

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C.10. Conducting a test
58. The Agency has information provided by a Member State that Iran may have planned and
undertaken preparatory experimentation which would be useful were Iran to carry out a test of a nuclear
explosive device. In particular, the Agency has information that Iran has conducted a number of practical
tests to see whether its EBW firing equipment would function satisfactorily over long distances between a
firing point and a test device located down a deep shaft. Additionally, among the alleged studies
documentation provided by that Member State, is a document, in Farsi, which relates directly to the
logistics and safety arrangements that would be necessary for conducting a nuclear test. The Agency has
been informed by a different Member State that these arrangements directly reflect those which have been
used in nuclear tests conducted by nuclear-weapon States.
C.11. Integration into a missile delivery vehicle
59. The alleged studies documentation contains extensive information regarding work which is alleged
to have been conducted by Iran during the period 2002 to 2003 under what was known as Project 111.
From that information, the project appears to have consisted of a structured and comprehensive
programme of engineering studies to examine how to integrate a new spherical payload into the existing
payload chamber which would be mounted in the re-entry vehicle of the Shahab 3 missile.

According to that documentation, using a number of commercially available computer codes, Iran
conducted computer modelling studies of at least 14 progressive design iterations of the payload chamber
and its contents to examine how they would stand up to the various stresses that would be encountered on
being launched and travelling on a ballistic trajectory to a target. It should be noted that the masses and
dimensions of components identified in information provided to the Agency by Member States that Iran is
alleged to have been developing (see paragraphs 43 and 48 above) correspond to those assessed to have
been used in Project 111 engineering studies on the new payload chamber.

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Israel spinning its last spin on Iran
Israel has been steadily losing its strategic dominance in the Middle East ever since the Hezbollah defied it in the Lebanon War in 2006, but its global dominance as spin masters remained unchallenged. The high noon might have been the famous dare-devil attack by Israeli pilots on the secret Syrian nuclear installation in 2007.

2007 was indeed Israeli spin of the highest grade. Read the report on the Dutch government website. Or, in the Washington Post blog. What prompted such a magnificent spin four years ago? Obviously, in order to cover up their defeat at the hands of Hezbollah, Israel crafted the Syrian spin, which they thought would make them look like Martians all over again.
Isn’t what we are seeing today a replay of the rare genius for spin - that israel is straining at the leash to attack Iran? I have 4 reasons for calling the Israeli spin by its name. One, Israeli leaders would know as much as the former chief of Mossad Ephraim Halevy, who repeated last week that in reality, Iran’s nuclear programme does not pose an existential danger to Israel.
Two, Israeli leaders understand politics. They can grasp that in Europe and US, the leaders are caught in the whirlpool of economic crisis and are barely staying afloat. They know well enough that Israel lacks the capability to fight a war on its own without seamless US support, and US, in turn, won’t have allied backing for any war today - especially, a war in the Middle East that will drive up the price of oil. [Of course, the first thing Iran will do will be to choke the narrow sea lane of Strait of Hormuz through which one-third of the world's oil supply passes.]
Three, all 3 service chiefs of Israeli armed forces and the bosses of Mossad and Shin Bet have spoken against an attack on Iran. The Israeli leaders know why they are so dead against war with Iran. They know Hezbollah will rain tens of thousands of rockets on every little town and city and settlement in Israel wreaking colossal loss of civilian lives. Despite their swagger, politicians like Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak know what such a horrific tragedy could do to their successful careers in public life.
Finally, Israelis are brilliant minds and would surely ask the one fundamental question before starting a war with Iran: What is the objective? To destroy Iran’s nuclear programme? But, for that to be achieved, Israel should know in the first instance where exactly are Iran’s nuclear installations located. In short, Israeli leadership will be staking hundreds or thousands of innocent Israeli lives for a war with no clear-cut objective. Indeed, at the end of it all, the Iran that emerges out of an israeli attack will go for the atomic bomb, finally, and will pose existential threat to Israel for at least a few millennia. So, why this Israeli spin, which is driving the world crazy?
I see three factors at work. First, Israeli regional policies are at a dead-end and the impending recognition of Palestine by the UN general assembly is too bitter a pill to swallow. The ring of regional isolation around Israel is complete. Second, the social protest movement in Israel is gathering strength. Israel’s political economy badly needs reforms, but the government is caught in a bind as it doesn’t have money.
The leadership needs a big diversion on both these counts. The spectre of war is the ultimate spin that desperate politicians get to use to rally the nation.
Third, this is the best time to “squeeze” Barack Obama. And, of course, Netanyahu knows how eminently Obama is “sqeezable” - from the manner in which Obama was forced to back out of his famous Cairo speech of 2009. As Obama begins his re-election bid, Netanyahu will estimate that he is vulnerable to blackmail - and Israel is good at that game. Experience shows that when pressure mounts in the Middle East, US instinctively loosens its purse strings for Israel. Obama is about to do that.
The funny part is, there is no evidence that Iran actually worked for its dramatic surge as regional power. It didn’t choreograph the Arab Spring or the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Much happened by default - due to the follies in the US and Israeli policies.
Now, this would probably imply that the Israelis are not infallible. Maybe so, but I still don’t think the Israeli leaders are stupid. On balance, what they desperately need is some spectacular spin - like in 2007- which displays Israeli valour and might and highlight Iranian cowardice and bluster. For that spin to work, Israel must have a tacit understanding with Iran so that the latter takes the Israeli attack lying low and won’t retaliate. But Iran isn’t obliging. Can Israel be spinning its last spin?

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