@Blitzo: Is there something wrong with that? I see something hypocritical; you're extrapolating to future Chinese capabilities and criticizing me for extrapolating to future US capabilities. For all we know, the J-20 project is a Chinese F-35 project and while it's entered LRIP, none of its systems are mature; the mots we've seen are 20/sec turns, etc...
You're not wrong here, and how reasonable it is to assume certain projects may reach certain levels of success or progress is due to a whole heap of different factors, some of which are programme unique and some of which are broader and dependent on systematic factors such as the US being much more open about their defence programmes meaning many high profile ones whose progress we can track from initial ideas to prototypes and to operational units may often not reach the goal, whereas with the Chinese military they are much less open so we only see the few high profile ones through their development and/or the end results of projects which were already successful whose development we were not able to track.
We will shift the assumptions as new information and developments come to light. For example, if J-20 numbers are limited and do not enter combat service for the next five years or something then that would obviously cause a significant shift in our calculations as those five years pass.
And while that is of course a possibility in the minds of many people here, it is not currently assumed to be the likely course that the programme will take.
OTOH, there are other programmes whose position in the development cycle is so early that trying to project its course/pathway into the future is not yet practical at this time.
There is no reason to assume that the SACM (actually, it should be MSDM) project will fail, given the extensive and successful research in missile defense conducted by the United States. The question is not whether it'll be successful, but under what time frame will it be successful.
I wouldn't go so far as to say it will fail, but I do think it is a bit early to assume that it will be fielded successfully in the way you envision it to.
Maybe in a few years time once the programme moves forward along a bit more then we can talk about it more, but at this stage I think talking about it as if it's some kind of done deal is like if we were in 2009 talking about the Chinese Air Force of the future definitely having a stealth fighter in operationally useful numbers, years before even the first J-20 has made its maiden flight.