Roger604 said:
I don't think I'll be able to change the minds of you folks who think the US military is "full spectrum dominant" or "joint-this-and-that" or whatever.
This statement you make is correct. Most people understand China is in a modernization and build up phase. They are not at a level of the US, the old USSR, and do not match the technological prowess of the Europeans. I hear alot from Chinese military forums...."the embargo needs to be lifted." Gee, I wonder why they say that. You can be Beijing Bob 2. :rofl:
Here's a question for you. If China can match the US in military operations, why the buildup? If China is the powerhouse you think it is and Taiwan is such a pushover and US resolve is in the gutter, why don't China just invade Taiwan today? Please don't tell me you're this gullible.
Look I'll address some more. And I'll be respectful of both China and you. I do have respect for China and her military, but we need to look at the facts. China is building up her capabilities and I'm impressed by some of the things that are going on there. The Shenzhou flights are interesting and impressive, the J-10, the Yuan SSK, YJ-62, Type 054 FFG. All neat stuff. But I think you are totally overestimating the capabilities of China's current military capabilities.
First off, about Finn's scenario. It's plausible, but I think you're prone to thinking that America organization and tactics are just somehow better than China's.
The facts support that big time. China is a long way from developing coherent military strategies, tactics, and comparable military technologies and implementing them into military units. I can see that from the article you posted not too long ago that showed PLAN ships firing anti-ship missiles in trail formation. Doesn't show much in the way of maneuver warfare.
So you have to look to the quality of the gears and quantity. I think China's aircraft and missiles are quite enough to fend off intervention by 3-4 CVBG's. These are definitely as good as what the USN has got. The only advantage USN can muster is sheer quantity.
Not a chance. Most of these carriers in the Western Pacific would probably conduct most of the early phases out of range of most of these units. And I'm here to tell you, that USN/USAF will probably initially do stuff to eliminate or damage PLAN/PLAAF air sortie rates. That's easily doable since they're fixed sites. And the US can attack from so many different areas with so many different platforms and weapons. There's just not enough Sukhoi jets and S-300's to go around.
The PLAN surface and subsurface fleet too, can wage a delay and denial strategy while keeping alive.
How are they going to deny anything? They're largely sitting ducks without sufficient aircover. The best they could do at this time is run away and hide to keep alive.
As I said before, I think 26 advanced subs in a defensive ambush position is going to complicate things substantially.
The only way these things are going to survive is if they sit in the Taiwan Straits, where USN ships won't even operate. Or they could operate anywhere and choose not to reveal their locations. That means...not attacking. they'd be darn hard to detect, until that tube transient. Diesels are good as mobile minefields for sure. Diesels are definitely deadly. I'm not minimizing them. But I don't believe they're going to be very successful at chasing down any USN ships. Who knows? Maybe they'll get lucky or something. But I've already pointed out why I don't think so in other posts.
Now the US might want to go in with 4 and fight it out. But I doubt the USN has the stomach to take 50% losses to its fighting force.
The US would not take even close to 50% losses. Dude you're cracking me up. What are they going to use to do this? Diesels don't have the endurance, firepower, or speed to do it. Only if USN units operate close to them maybe. PLAN surface ships ain't gonna get close. I say they'll be sunk if they get within 600 Km. And the aircraft would be too busy defending. There's just going to be USN aircraft air superiority sorties not letting PLAAF aircraft through. All supported with electronic warfare units. Nothing like PLAN or PLAAF has yet.
So can PLA take and totally control Taiwan in two weeks? Well, I'd say its 50/50.
I'd say it's zero %. Taiwanese forces are going to be there too ya know.
Plus, like I said, much of China's offensive units will have to be shifted into a defensive posture. Otherwise US units will be able to destroy targets on the mainland at will from the Yellow Sea, the South China Sea, US mainland, Central Asia and Diego Garcia. US aircraft are stationed in Central Asia. It's not just the Army. The US can easily disperse China's forces. It's called kicking in the back door. Without sufficient aircover, Chinese troops are dead meat. If China moves a portion of SAMs to Western China, that leaves some of Eastern Chinese facilities much more vulnerable.
China has an anti-stealth radar already! The Chinese radar, electronic warfare and all those communications technology is close to US capabilities.
Right. Actually, China doesn't have anything comparable to the EA-6B at all. Nothing. Nor does China have anything close to US comms, SIGINT, ELINT, J-Stars, etc. Dude, you're making me laugh.
About the USSR comparison.
China is technologically equal to Russia -- Russia in 2006! How can anyone possibly think China is not at Cold War USSR level?
Russia is a shell of her former self. Yet China relies heavily on them for her own modernization. China's not at USSR level of 20 years ago indeed. China doesn't have any heavy SSGN's, no credible SSBN force, no space based surveillance, no current generation nuke sub force (only 5 noisy Han SSN's and maybe 1 or two 093's in sea trials - still waiting for substantive proof), poor force concentrations, very little ASW capabilities, much smaller maritime air support, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
Even quantitatively, China's about par with height of USSR assets in the Pacific theater.
Guess again. China doesn't have alot of ways to currently deal with carriers using their own current naval forces that they have. And their aircraft rely on the US to get close enough to launch attacks. China is nowhere near Cold War Soviet capabilities in the Pacific.
Thirdly, DF-31A's are supposed to be deployed this year. Enough said.
I've been hearing this for years. And still, that would only give it an additional 2,000 Km over DF-31. There's only so many places you can launch these missiles in China to hit the USA. Nuff said here. But still, the USA has about 840 warheads out in the Pacific right now able to target all of China giving less than 6 minutes warning in some cases. I don't even know why you would bring up DF-31A's. They're not in service and yet they don't give that much more compared to DF-31's.
Why must you always bring up nukes, Roger? What an obsession. Hopefully nukes will never be used by anyone against anyone.
Things could turn out badly for the Chinese side, no doubt about it.
At least your honest here. But I think it's more of a guarantee.
But if there's one thing that will be the achilles heel of the US, it's that American does not expect to take casualties. Sunk carriers, dead pilots..... I think American effectiveness will quickly unravel when serviceman start realizing they have an opponent who's targeting them too! Gee, it's not just a one-sided video game.
This proves you know nothing of American resolve.
EDIT: Pointing out that that China doesn't have power-projection related capabilities is pointless. They're defending.
Nevertheless proves the point that they're not as capable or strong as USSR of 20 years ago.
It's ludicrous to suggest the US will attack from central Asia. I don't care how many US Army troops you put there. They are absolutely no match for the PLA. Just a big tank rush will run them over.
Troops and aircraft are both there. And American troops know what they're doing, have combat experience, and are better equipped with things like UAV's, LOSATS, etc. And CAS aircraft are there and would be able to destroy alot of these PLA units. Plus China would be attacked from Diego Garcia by heavy bombers. Will China disperse those beloved S-300's? If so, it would put much of China's coastal facilities at risk. If not, the US could pretty much attack from the backdoor with little to no opposition. Plus the way the US is currently based, China would have to attack more countries than Taiwan to invade Taiwan if they're going after US military assets. Is China prepared to go to war against a total of USA, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, UK (Diego Garcia), The Philipinnes, and a few Central Asian states?
Dude, I respect China's military and modernization efforts. But please don't be delusional about things. China is in no position to invade Taiwan despite the hysterics you read in the New York Times, the Washington Times, and that rag out of Taipei. China is improving and I'm impressed by some of the things they're doing. But lets stay real, shall we?
And I think we should return to the topic. And we should also probably remember that this is a Sinodefence.com site. Not ChinavsUSAforum.com. Nor is it ChinainvadeTaiwanforum.com. We should focus on aspects to China's military and analyze it. Not always by pitting it hypothetically against US and other forces. Sometimes the context is right. But I don't think it needs to be every dang thread. You'll notice, I never start these comparative threads. But I will join in and call BS when I see it.
