Number of Ships PLAN must have to be supreme

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isthvan

Tailgunner
VIP Professional
Totoro said:
Eisenhower is training in the atlantic and would also need at least two weeks.

Well since Eisenhower was in Croatia for last 2 days I agree that it would need atleast 2 weeks to come to Taiwan...

Totoro said:
Of course taiwan can't be invaded within a week with a meaningful force. Air supremacy achieved, yes. Sea control (not supremacy) achieved, yes. As foor ground troops -at best some scattered footholds where airborne troops have landed around the island and are struggling to keep their positions.

Decapitation rarely works, and its silly to rely on that. I don't know about others, but i don't have any illusions about one big missile strike that would neutralize whole of taiwan.

it is nice to see that Im not only person here who thinks that Taiwan would not joust surender at first sight of PRC troops...
 
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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
I stand by what I posted on how many CSG the USN could deploy on a short notice. Two CSG(Carrier Strik Groups) on each coast are in a surge status. They are able to deploy in 72 hours.

It takes quite a bit to deploy a carrier. But it can be done. The most difficult thing would be assembling the airwing on the ship. Hard work no doubt. But it can be done.

Totoro sez...
So, if US had needed to respond in sep 2005, it could have sent 1 carrier within two days, another one under a week, two more in some 9-10 days, maybe 3 more in 2 weeks time. (ones that didn't get too far into their postdeployment cycle) Then two remaining ones after couple of more weeks/a month. Rest of them would require a couple of months. A pretty good result if you ask me. No other navy in the world could send such force half way round the world on such short notice.

Excellent statement.

You fellows seem to be intelligent most of the time. But many times you put blinders on when it comes to the warfighting capablities of the US. Some of your post indicate that you think that somehow the US is inept. Or not really a capable fighting force. Ludricous. Many of you totally ignore what myself and others with real world experience and knowledge of these military matters post. I just post what I know to be true based on my personal knowledge.

That's Ok..you just post as you see fit without getting political.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Finn's Invasion of Taiwan Extravanganza!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Totoro said:
Numerical superiority on land - absolutely. Numerical superiority at sea - not so much. Maybe in the opening day, but after that at best they'll be on par with china. Numerical superiority in air will be completely on china's side. That is in the opening days of any possible invasion. With air superiority over such a small theater, taiwan's navy will struggle to do any serious offensive manouvers. As time passes, situation will get just worse for taiwan, until the point US starts its attack. Providing it waits to assemble a decent force - US strike would probably neutralize most of PLAN and deny PLAAF of offensive operations over taiwan. Any chinese troops that would be fighting on taiwan itself would effectively be cut off and would be forced to surrender in a short time frame.

Thank you Totoro. This is what I've been trying to say ever since I joined this forum.

This is how I think it would go.

Chinese forces launch a massive missle barrage at Taiwan, hitting communications facilities, airports and bases, costal defences, Kinmen and Matsu, as well as Kaohsuing and Taipei (to sow fear). American satillites have seen unusual amounts of activity and deployment in Fujian, and the CIA has alerted the ROCs command, thus the missle strikesdo not do as much damage as many had expected them to. Chinese Special forces assault the Penghu Islands, and take them in one day. After two days, Kinmen and Matsu fall, but the defences there have really eaten up the PLA Marine Corps, as well as destroyed uite a few precious landing craft. The garrison didn't go under before it was absolutely sure it had fired all of its ASMs. In the meantime, the PLAAf and the ROCAF have been engaged in a life-and-death struggle over the Strait and Taiwan itself. The ROCAF holds up well, downing many PLAAF planes, but the PLA is able to keep up a continuous tempo of strikes, and ROCAF pilots and crews never get breaks from combat. Even as they are landing and refueling, they are always in danger from missle strikes that are seemingly constant. The PLA has decided to eliminate Taiwan's ability to counterstrike and attack the landing force before landing. This strategy risks the invasion being defeated by American forces, however. American CBGs are en-route to the area in less than a day, as the President orders all West Coast Carriers into the area as soon as the PLA attack begins. The Kitty Hawk links up with surface assets out of Guam, but waits to be supported by other carriers. USN SSNs move into position to strike, at the Northern and Southern ends of the Taiwan Strait, as well as off of Shanghai and (from B-1s and B-52s, at standoff range and escorted by F16s) at targets believed to be necessary for ampihbious assault, as well as airbases, in Fujian. These strikes are relatively ineffective, as they are launched from so far out and at targets that the Chinese know will be hit. However, the US scores a major hit when it orders all of its B-2s to strike Chinese airbases. One B-2 is hit by AAA, but returns to base. In exchange, the US destroys 29 planes and takes out valuable radars.

All of this is mostly moot however, as the ROCAF is in desperate straits by day 5. The ROCN realizes it has no choice but to give battle, and attacks a Chinese task force that is bearing down on Northern Taiwan in preperation for an invasion (scheduled to occur on Day 7.) In "The battle of the East china Sea, the ROCN sinks a Sovremmeny, an 052, many older destroyers and, most importantly, several troops tranports. The ROC then fires Hsiung Feng missles, and in its weakened state the PLAN force takes heavy casualties. The ROCN looses most of the ships it has in the battle, but has delayed, or possibly halted, an invasion of the northern end of the island. Even more importantly, the US has assembled 4 carriers and is entering the battle zone with them.

The other main event of Day 6 is the massive landings of Chinese paratroopers on the island. Given the fact that many Taiwanese SAM batteries are still operational (but running very low on missles) and the USN has begun to fly planes in the area, the landings are remarkably sucecessful. They were supposed to be supported by amphibious landings on the same day, and by the mainlanding the next day, but US and ROC action pushed back the schedule a day and a half for landings on the central coast. The paratroopers are met by ROC reservists, mostly, although in areas where the landings were expected they are met by regular troops. The Chinese paratroopers manage to consolidate their positions but come under heavy attack as the ROC struggles to eliminate them before the ampibious assault comes. Several pockets are wiped out in the first day, mainly due to the ROC's numerical superiority, but the largest hold out, albeit taking heavy casualties.

When the Chinese landings finally do come, the USN is fully ready. SSNs, lying stationary in areas that the PLAN has designated as staging areas, open up Tomahaks and torpedos on every ship they can finds. Two are subsequently killed, the highest death toll the Navy has taken in one day since WWII. Groups of Hornets, armed with Harpoons and ecorted by F-16s out of Kadena and Guam, attack the Chinese fleet as it lumbers across the Strait. In conjunction with attacks from land-based Hsiung Feng batteries and what is left of the ROCAF, the US strike does much damage. A huge air battle insues, in which the PLAAF out does expectations, downing 40 planes, but the US forces still come out on top, killing 62 PLAAF aircraft. The next day, the one operational squadron of F-22s arrive in Kadena. The USN mounts another Hornet strike, and the PLAAF counters again. However, it is not nearly as close. The US loses 4 Hornets, and the PLAAF looses 73 planes, nearly the entire force sent up to counter the strike. The expense of the F-22 is justified.

Despite USN strikes, the PLA ampihibous assault force gets ashore in force on Taiwan, a testament to the strengh and will of the average PLA soldier, as well as the cunning of relatively inexperienced PLA officers, who are forced to make due with a greatly reduced force. Despite improvised landing procedures, the PLA Marines, then other PLA troops, get ashore. 8,000 PLA Marines and 27,000 other PLA troops make it ashore on the first day, day 8 of the war. They are met by 112,000 ROC troops in their sector of the coast(wround Tainan). Much like on D-Day, the ROC troops fail to mount a counterattack, and the landing force survives its most dangerous time.
The next day an additional 16,000 troops are landed. It is less than the first day because of continuing USN strikes.

On day 10, after the total amount of PLA troops on Taiwan has reached 61,000 (add ten thousand because of tjhe paratroopers), the ROC finally counterattacks. The beachhead is reduced slowly, but the ROC is able to bring in troops from other areas of the country because it has become obvious that the PLAN can no longer mount further ampibious operations (thanks to the USN ;)). The PLAAF is also losing its air superiority.The F-22s take a huge toll, and the PLAAF pilots cannot match the skills of the Americans. In Beijing it is obvious that the strategy of caution, calling for the main invasoin to fall on Day 7, has failed, and that they should have launched the invasion by Day 3. The pockets of paratroopers that have survived the past four days almost all fall on this day, and the beachead is hit by B-2s, flying out of Hawaii.

As the Chinese invasion of Taiwan failed, the USN engaged the main strength of the PLAN. Two PLAN forces, one south of Taiwan and one North, fired a salvo of missles at the 5 American carrier groups in the Phillpine Sea. The two sides trade missle barrages, but American air superiority allows them to again attack the Chinese fleet with Harpoon/JDAM-Armed Hornets. Sunburn Missles from the remaining Sovremmenys sink two Arleigh Burke DDs, and the Ticonderoga Subic Bay is also sunk, by a Jiangwei. Two Ticonderoga crusiers and another Arleigh Burke are damaged by missle fire from other ships. A replenishment ship is sunk by a torpedo from a Yuan, and goes up in a massive explotion. The Yuan is promptly killed. The most shocking development of the day for the Americans is the fact that the USS Abraham Lincoln (a carrier) is hit by two YJ-62 missles, fired form an old Luhai Class DDG. The Lincoln lists heavily, but does not go under, and is forced to begin to long journey back to Everett, Washington. The PLAN scored some sucesses, mission-killing a carrier and sinking 4 American ships. However, almost the entire PLAN fleet was killed, as well as several subs. Subs would be the main preoccupation of the USN fleet in the days to come, as they were almost the last viable threat the PLAN posed.

By Day 15 of the war, all PLA forces on Taiwan had surrendered, and much of the PLAAF, as well as most of the PLAN and its Marine Corps, were put out of action. The PLA had destroyed almost all of the ROCAF and ROCN, as well as killing over 100 American planes, 6 American ships, (two outside of the main action), and mission killing a carrier. But the PRCs ability to continue an offensive war had been eliminated.


That's basically how I think it would go. Its pretty off topic, but I'm really bored.
 

MIGleader

Banned Idiot
Re: Finn's Invasion of Taiwan Extravanganza!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey finn, we can start a story thread somewhere else, but lets keep this thread strictly to facts, perhaps with a little spicing of proffesional analysis and opinion.

I tired to make a up a story once and got the thread closed...
i really like your story though, you should write books. You can change the outcome depending on who your marketing your book to.:D

Many of you totally ignore what myself and others with real world experience and knowledge of these military matters post. I just post what I know to be true based on my personal knowledge.

i hope you arnt refering to me, because i normally respect proffesional opinion unless it clashed to heavily with facts. sites such as sino-defence and mil.jschina present of the professional opinion of people such as donfeng and huitong, and conclusions we draw from reading these sites should be treated as such. anything else can be disregarded.:D
 
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Sea Dog

Junior Member
VIP Professional
Jeff Head said:
Sea dog and popeye, I would not be surprised to see two carriers forward deployed to the western pacific in the next few years. The USN is already forward deploying more and more assets like SSNs and conducting more and more operations there. Just a thought...what do you guys think?

I think within the next couple of years, we are definitely going to see more of what you talk about here. I know the USN forward deployed more SSN assets to the Pacific. So it stand to reason that we'll see a bigger carrier presence there also. The command structure seems to believe this area needs a larger presence. IMHO, I think you're totally right.

IDon't said:
I highly doubt the PLA's capability to invade Taiwan in a week.

Taiwanese forces are very capable and will have relative numerical superiority in the straights. All of China's forces can't be allocated at Taiwan. Doing so, you risk giving the US an open avenue to open a second front.

I totally doubt this also. Taiwanese military forces are pretty tough. They are certainly not going to be pushovers.

I actually believe Chinese forces would be attacked by US (Allied?)forces in such a way as to force these offensive forces to be put in a defensive posture. They(PLA) just couldn't commit enough resources to provide a sustained, committed, resupplied invasion force. The US is right now in a position to attack from Diego Garcia, and Central Asia. Plus there are already forces out there conducting ops now in the Western Pacific...today. But I don't think US forces would just attack from the Western Pacific. I believe the U.S. will intend to disperse China's forces. The best way to do that is kick in the backdoor. Like I said before, these defenders couldn't be everywhere at once. The US would call the shots and do alot of damage in this scenario.

Roger604 said:
Besides, I think the USN is prone to underestimating the fact that they make mistakes, and things just don't pan out they way they want to. If they hope to be somewhere within a week, some problem will probably come up that delays them for another week. The US Army and Marines are a lot less "in control" nowadays than they want to be, and I think the Navy is no different.

No I understand that military action is prone to mistakes. There's that old saying that "No plan survives contact with the enemy"...or something like that. But I know for a fact that you totally overestimate China's military force's ability to respond. And I know they would make way more mistakes than US forces because they have no experience at all in any combat environment. Most of their guys have never seen action of any kind. It would be an unknown realm. They will flinch when they think something's coming their way. They are human you know. Plus, the US military is at least 10 times more capable than the last days of the Cold War. And back then they were built to take on the Soviets. Chinese military forces aren't even as capable or beefed up as what the Soviets were back then. Think about it.

bdpopeye said:
You fellows seem to be intelligent most of the time. But many times you put blinders on when it comes to the warfighting capablities of the US. Some of your post indicate that you think that somehow the US is inept. Or not really a capable fighting force. Ludricous. Many of you totally ignore what myself and others with real world experience and knowledge of these military matters post. I just post what I know to be true based on my personal knowledge.

Well said. That's totally where I'm coming from.

Getting back on topic. How many of each class of ship do you think PLAN intends on building? That's what I want to know.
 
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MIGleader

Banned Idiot
Plus, the US military is at least 10 times more capable than the last days of the Cold War. And back then they were built to take on the Soviets. Chinese military forces aren't even as capable or beefed up as what the Soviets were back then. Think about it.

I doubt it. There is nothing to prove the u.s military is 10x as capable as it was in 1991. In fact, why did it take LONGER to defeat saddam in 2003 than in 1991?

secondly, the PLA is more powerful than the russian military of 1991. It has much more advanced equipment and more up-to-date tacitcs. Although
PLA C4i may be infantile, its better thna what the soviets had. Again, i question where you draw these conlcusions.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Re: Finn's Invasion of Taiwan Extravanganza!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MIGleader said:
Hey finn, we can start a story thread somewhere else, but lets keep this thread strictly to facts, perhaps with a little spicing of proffesional analysis and opinion.

I tired to make a up a story once and got the thread closed...
i really like your story though, you should write books. You can change the outcome depending on who your marketing your book to.:D

Why do you call it a story? It is what I believe would happen. Not a story. A story has characters. It is just a very involved prediction.

Jeff, I think I read somewhere thta the PLA planned to build around 15 052s. If it was B or C I forget. And as you all probably know China has another Sov on the way.
 

Sea Dog

Junior Member
VIP Professional
I'll only say this:

1. US has added advanced capabilities in strike warfare by adding Tactical Tomahawks. They have improved range, improved low- observables, advanced surveillance, electronic attack, and reattack options.

2. US has added capabilities in advanced PGM technologies. They have added JASSM, JADM, etc. in the inventories. And they're all proven.

3. US has gone into next generation nuclear submarines. Virginias and Seawolfs are the quietest and most lethal; nuclear submarines out there. Plus they are multi-mission capable.

4. US nuclear submarine force is still the biggest and strongest. And they have alot of operational experience. More than when they were in the Cold War.

5. SSGN's have been added that gives Commanders the options to deploy large numbers of SOF's and huge amounts of cruise missiles from 1 platform.

6. Better NetworkCentric vcapabilities added in all areas of C4ISR. From undersea to space based assets. Nowadays near full coverage.

7. Added low observable UAV's with combat abilities and forward deployed recon available. UUV's added to undersea warfare areas.

8. Aegis upgraded to baseline 7. Better warfare control in all areas. Better missile performance. Better capabilities and robustness in missile magazines.

9. Limited but growing abilities to destroy ballistic missiles using SM-3, Patriot, Thaad, Airborne Lasers, etc.

10. Better ability to detect attack using X-band radars in mobile platforms.

11. Super Hornets, B-2's, F-22's added to inventories. Stealth technologies improved.

12. Improvements and streamlining in Stratcom.

13. Basing strategy is stronger. US now has forces in the Western Pacific, South Pacific, Middle east, Central Asia, Diego Garcia, Northern Pacific, etc.

14. US forces are battle experienced and combat systems have seen action.

15. US deployments and training cycles are even higher than the last days of the Cold War.

These are just a few.....






China's not as strong or capable as the Cold War Soviets because:

1. Soviets could project naval power and had a coherrent naval doctrine outside it's own waters. China does not have this.

2. Soviets had credible and robust nuclear deterrent.

3. Large numbers of MODERN fighter and bomber aircraft. China has few modern...many older.

4. Soviets navy was at least comparable to USN counterparts during that era. And they had larger numbers of comparable designs. They had more than 14 Sovremenny's at one point. China has like 4. Most of China's current navy is outclassed, with few modern designs. China is right now only building up their naval capabilities.

5. Soviets had combat experience and were deployed at higher rates.

6. Soviets had a full space surveillance network. China has none of this.

7. Soviets had good basing situation. Most of China's military forces are concentrated.

8. Soviets had heavy SSGN's and a full SSBN ability. China has one obsolete SSBN and no real SSGN capability. The Soviet subs of these classes also included fully developed naval strategies.

9. Soviets had a full naval strategy for its numerous nuclear attack subs. They had a variety of nuke designs, and experience in blue water operations. China has 5 noisy and outclassed Hans and has a new design 093 in development.

10. The Soviets had carriers.

To name a few examples....

China's building itself up, but they are not anywhere near these two examples.

So therefore, yes, US is at least 10 times stronger. And no, China is not currently as strong as the Soviets were 15-20 years ago.

So why not get on topic. "How many ships should PLAN have". I actuaally think we need to understand which classes there will be and how many first.
 
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I doubt it. There is nothing to prove the u.s military is 10x as capable as it was in 1991. In fact, why did it take LONGER to defeat saddam in 2003 than in 1991?

Um maybe because in 2003 the US had to take the entire nation while in 1991 they stopped while only half way to Baghad? That might be it.

I consider Finn's, "story," to be fairly plausible. Although there are many intangibles and the effectivenss of ROC and PLA forces cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty, I think he still painted a fairly good picture of how such a conflict would play out. Close but not quite is generally the most likely outcome of a Taiwanese Strait conflict with US intervention. Of course, if it fails the first time, the PLA can still try again 20 years later. ;)

In my personal opinion, I do not think the US would intervene as long as the Taiwanese make moves towards independence, and that China would not attack unless the Taiwanese make such moves. From the best sources available currently, I can safely conclude that the US will be looking for a reason to not fight, rather than vice versa.
 

MIGleader

Banned Idiot
1. US has added advanced capabilities in strike warfare by adding Tactical Tomahawks. They have improved range, improved low- observables, advanced surveillance, electronic attack, and reattack options.

2. US has added capabilities in advanced PGM technologies. They have added JASSM, JADM, etc. in the inventories. And they're all proven.
Rather miniscule improvements in terms of general warefare. Equipment like that gets upgraded all the time

3. US has gone into next generation nuclear submarines. Virginias and Seawolfs are the quietest and most lethal; nuclear submarines out there. Plus they are multi-mission capable.

4. US nuclear submarine force is still the biggest and strongest. And they have alot of operational experience. More than when they were in the Cold War.

5. SSGN's have been added that gives Commanders the options to deploy large numbers of SOF's and huge amounts of cruise missiles from 1 platform.
Experience does not pass from a a dead sailor to a living one. I dont doubt the abilities of the u.s silent service. I just dont believe the addition of these new units would suddenly multiply ability by 10.

6. Better NetworkCentric vcapabilities added in all areas of C4ISR. From undersea to space based assets. Nowadays near full coverage.
Yes, thats one of the more obvious improvements.

7. Added low observable UAV's with combat abilities and forward deployed recon available. UUV's added to undersea warfare areas.
Advanced UAVs are new stuff. They are useful, but you cant claim any experience with them. China has advanced uavs too.

8. Aegis upgraded to baseline 7. Better warfare control in all areas. Better missile performance. Better capabilities and robustness in missile magazines.
Another fairly minut upgrade in terms of general capability.

9. Limited but growing abilities to destroy ballistic missiles using SM-3, Patriot, Thaad, Airborne Lasers, etc.
totally new stuff, dont bank on it yet. the airborne laser has yet to be deployed. i wont get into the sm-3 thing again...

10. Better ability to detect attack using X-band radars in mobile platforms.
Again, fairly small addition to general capability.

11. Super Hornets, B-2's, F-22's added to inventories. Stealth technologies improved.
the u.s cant send f-22s against China. the superhornet is great, but is certainly not 10x as capable as the f-14. The u.s already had b-2s in the end of the cold war.

12. Improvements and streamlining in Stratcom.
Again, fairly small improvement

13. Basing strategy is stronger. US now has forces in the Western Pacific, South Pacific, Middle east, Central Asia, Diego Garcia, Northern Pacific, etc.
Yes, but the u.s has lost alot of allies like uzbekistan. The u.s has lost many bases and gained many bases. In terms of how this will affect a war near taiwan, these new bases dont matter too much.

14. US forces are battle experienced and combat systems have seen action.

15. US deployments and training cycles are even higher than the last days of the Cold War.
They arnet any more or less experience than they were in the col war. Popeye has experience, but does it go to new sailors when he retires? No.
Yeah, i can tell deployments are much higher...but that doesnt affect how you fight. if anything, it spreads rescources.


1. Soviets could project naval power and had a coherrent naval doctrine outside it's own waters. China does not have this.
The soviet navys projection was almost entirely dependent on submarines. Their warships were mainly for strike and had little seakeeping ability.

2. Soviets had credible and robust nuclear deterrent.
And China doesnt? nukes wont be used in a taiwan conflict.

3. Large numbers of MODERN fighter and bomber aircraft. China has few modern...many older.
A large number, stretched over a huge area. China has about 400 modern fighters, about half of the soviet airforces. But these fighters are primarily concentrated on China's east coast.

4. Soviets navy was at least comparable to USN counterparts during that era. And they had larger numbers of comparable designs. They had more than 14 Sovremenny's at one point. China has like 4. Most of China's current navy is outclassed, with few modern designs. China is right now only building up their naval capabilities.
stop exagerating the soviet navy for the sake of your argument!!! i know if i were to claim the soviet navy was comparible to the u.s's, you would consider it bs.
China can concetrate its whol fleet to taiwan. thats 13 modern DDGs, and 14 modern FFG's. Plus submarines and fleet aux.

5. Soviets had combat experience and were deployed at higher rates.
I dont deny that. But they got clobbered in Afghanistan anyways.

6. Soviets had a full space surveillance network. China has none of this.
china has Beidou, and soon beidou 2. It will also soon be able to use gallileo and also glonass.

7. Soviets had good basing situation. Most of China's military forces are concentrated.
Spread basing is good for big wars, but not for regional conflicts.
 
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