North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Undead Yogurt said:

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North Korea is to dismantle its nuclear weapons program by the end of this year in exchange for the remaining 950k tons of fuel oil.

My thoughts:
1) Kim Jong-il maybe quite ill (pun intended) and is worried about leaving too much of a mess to his son. (BTW, for what it's worth, the Daily NK is reporting a speculation that the second son will be designated heir in 2012.)

2) How much bribe money did Roh shove into the pockets of Kim for this "historic" political coup?

3) Is this it? Of course not. With NK no deal is ever really binding. I wouldn't be surprised at all if five years down the road NK declares out of nowhere that it is once again ready to test a nuke, unless the rest of the world gives it another lollipop.

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Finn McCool said:

I agree. North Korea is almost certainly hiding several completed nukes somewhere in the country as insurance against all the various threats facing the Kim reigeme. Really this deal is buying a halt in production, not a total dismantling. Of course it is also a face saving measure for the US, Japan and South Korea. It would be foolish to assume that Kim, who is only concerned with his and his reigeme's survival, is going to surrender the ultimate insurance for both. North Korea has won a complete victory. It gets to keep the bomb and get aid.

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alwaysfresh said:

North Korea was smart, getting the bomb was the quickest way to ending the tensions with the US.

So much process occurs when both people have a gun pointing at each other.

Now if only Iran can quickly get the bomb there will finally be peace in the middle east.

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Finn McCool said:

Wrong. The Middle East is far more vital to the US than Northeast Asia and in the view of the US government the Iranians represent an expansionest threat rather than North Korea which is intrested in reigeme survival. Iran is a far bigger threat, and that it why the US is far more likely to do something about Iranian nukes.

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