News on China's scientific and technological development.

AssassinsMace said:

Going to have learn how to colonize this system before going out. I believe at the right time it takes about half a year to reach Mars. I think China should master making space stations and not just for Earth orbit. They're going to be needed for any colonization of outer bodies within the solar system. It would probably be easier to build a space station orbiting Mars before a landing is attempted. That way a lot can be learned about Mars before making a human landing.

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I imagine building a good sized space station orbiting mars could be as complex and require nearly as much money to fund though.

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And Martian, I feel that you're hyping it up a bit too much... I don't think China's space development nor any other country's, at this moment and time will massively influence future space exploration. In particularly, I don't think there is an argument for China to "have" to explore space for the good of mankind or whatever, because that could've easily been applied to the US during the cold war, and even now too.

Personally I think China needs to look into cheaper launch vehicles. many western private companies are bringing forth their space and near space vehicles which look promising and cheap.

AssassinsMace said:

Going to have learn how to colonize this system before going out. I believe at the right time it takes about half a year to reach Mars. I think China should master making space stations and not just for Earth orbit. They're going to be needed for any colonization of outer bodies within the solar system. It would probably be easier to build a space station orbiting Mars before a landing is attempted. That way a lot can be learned about Mars before making a human landing.

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The numbers mentioned or travel to Mars are:
By conventional rocket 300 days
By solar sail 200 days
By nuclear rocket 100 days
To me that means don't go by conventional rocket. You'll be travelling an awful long time, risking to be hit by a solar storm all the time. I don't see how we might already choose between the other two.

The pioneering spirit of wanting a permanent moon base and Mars base is commendable. But. the technological and engineering hurdles to overcome before these become a reality should not be underestimated.

Keeping humans alive on a permanent base on the moon/Mars will require a lot of logistics. The problem with water has largely been solved (recycling urine and perspiration), but food will be much more tricky. Current space missions are only in orbit with a very small crew for extended missions on the International Space Station. Supplying food to a permanent base on the moon/Mars is a totally different league, unless they grow their own. Growing vegetables shouldn't be too hard, but meat is a totally different issue (test-tube grown meat perhaps?).

The challenges of a Mars base are even more difficult. To ensure that there is a means of rescue should something go wrong, a space station orbiting Mars is likely to be needed for a permanent base on Mars. Otherwise, its as good as a 1 way trip (getting off Mars needs a lot of propellant and a sizeable rocket, getting back to earth will need even more propellant). Building such a space station and getting it to Mars will be a huge endeavour that will probably dwarf all previous human engineering feats.

Spartan95 said:

The pioneering spirit of wanting a permanent moon base and Mars base is commendable. But. the technological and engineering hurdles to overcome before these become a reality should not be underestimated.

Keeping humans alive on a permanent base on the moon/Mars will require a lot of logistics. The problem with water has largely been solved (recycling urine and perspiration), but food will be much more tricky. Current space missions are only in orbit with a very small crew for extended missions on the International Space Station. Supplying food to a permanent base on the moon/Mars is a totally different league, unless they grow their own. Growing vegetables shouldn't be too hard, but meat is a totally different issue (test-tube grown meat perhaps?).

The challenges of a Mars base are even more difficult. To ensure that there is a means of rescue should something go wrong, a space station orbiting Mars is likely to be needed for a permanent base on Mars. Otherwise, its as good as a 1 way trip (getting off Mars needs a lot of propellant and a sizeable rocket, getting back to earth will need even more propellant). Building such a space station and getting it to Mars will be a huge endeavour that will probably dwarf all previous human engineering feats.

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A permanent base presupposes local food production. You might well go without meat, vegetarians do it all the time. You want to live underground to be protected against cosmic rays, solar storms, meteorites &c. You want several independent and reliable energy systems.
On Mars you want to collect solar light for growing vegetables perhaps partly under plastic domes, as popularized by Arthur C. Clarke's The Sands of Mars, but certainly piped underground after collection using mirrors. At night you might collect tonnes of atmosphere, which you then heat using molten salt to drive turbines, the salt being heated during the day using solar energy. From the atmosphere you try to win water, nitrogen and argon. You'll probably want emergency nuclear power.

There will be plenty to do. The question is How do you boot the colony. What do you take from the Earth, to be send by slow, unmanned Solar Sail. What will go with how many people by either fast Solar Sail or Nuclear Rocket. When will it be necessary/possible to send additional people. &c. &c.
Rockets can be fueled to get off the planet using hydrogen and oxygen, or methane and oxygen, made from water resp. water and carbon dioxide.

The moon is nearer, but lacks an atmosphere. So there you want everything underground except the solar mirrors.

2050 is the 100th anniversary of PRC, so it's nice to be able to land a taikonaut on Mars.
It's 40 years away, looking at China's rates of economic growth and technological advances, it sounds like a sensible, doable project.
Not too far away to lose the interests of the people yet not too soon and ambitious to strain the resources.
I think the whole China space program is 'practical' and well managed.
They are making a manned launch every two years, conservative and steady, doesn't look like they're letting politics or prestige, or competition with foreign countries, dictate their pace.

delft said:

A permanent base presupposes local food production. You might well go without meat, vegetarians do it all the time. You want to live underground to be protected against cosmic rays, solar storms, meteorites &c. You want several independent and reliable energy systems.
On Mars you want to collect solar light for growing vegetables perhaps partly under plastic domes, as popularized by Arthur C. Clarke's The Sands of Mars, but certainly piped underground after collection using mirrors. At night you might collect tonnes of atmosphere, which you then heat using molten salt to drive turbines, the salt being heated during the day using solar energy. From the atmosphere you try to win water, nitrogen and argon. You'll probably want emergency nuclear power.

There will be plenty to do. The question is How do you boot the colony. What do you take from the Earth, to be send by slow, unmanned Solar Sail. What will go with how many people by either fast Solar Sail or Nuclear Rocket. When will it be necessary/possible to send additional people. &c. &c.
Rockets can be fueled to get off the planet using hydrogen and oxygen, or methane and oxygen, made from water resp. water and carbon dioxide.

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Going underground on Mars won't be easy as heavy machinery will be needed to do the digging. Quite a bit of work will also need to go into making sure that the underground environment is safe enough for human habitation and will not collapse on its occupants.

1 of the big unknowns at the moment for Mars is how much water there is on the planet. If it is a very dry place, a lot of water will need to be brought there just to grow vegetables.

Also, getting to Mars isn't that much of a problem, as the various probes sent to its surface has shown. The issue is how to get back off the surface and back here. So far, only small samples have made it off Mars surface and back to Earth. That's a minuscule mass as compared to 1 human being.

The idea of the rocket using hydrogen or methane is practical since these gases are plentiful on Mars. The difficulty is having the capability to refuel the rocket on Mars, test it to make sure it can survive the journey (heat shielding plates don't fall off leading to catastrophic failure, etc), have a launch platform for it on Mars and mount the payload on top of the rocket while on Mars. All that requires a rather extensive space launch facility just to get the rocket and its payload off Mars.

Spartan95 said:

Going underground on Mars won't be easy as heavy machinery will be needed to do the digging. Quite a bit of work will also need to go into making sure that the underground environment is safe enough for human habitation and will not collapse on its occupants.

1 of the big unknowns at the moment for Mars is how much water there is on the planet. If it is a very dry place, a lot of water will need to be brought there just to grow vegetables.

Also, getting to Mars isn't that much of a problem, as the various probes sent to its surface has shown. The issue is how to get back off the surface and back here. So far, only small samples have made it off Mars surface and back to Earth. That's a minuscule mass as compared to 1 human being.

The idea of the rocket using hydrogen or methane is practical since these gases are plentiful on Mars. The difficulty is having the capability to refuel the rocket on Mars, test it to make sure it can survive the journey (heat shielding plates don't fall off leading to catastrophic failure, etc), have a launch platform for it on Mars and mount the payload on top of the rocket while on Mars. All that requires a rather extensive space launch facility just to get the rocket and its payload off Mars.

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The Mars rocks we have on Earth were found here, especially in the Antarctic. They were blasted of the Martian surface by meteorite impacts and wandered to Earth in the following millions of years.
There are plans to send probes to Mars with a load of liquid hydrogen and a plant to convert that hydrogen and atmospheric carbon dioxide into liquid oxygen and liquid methane and send the rocket back to Earth with rock samples. The plant is to be powered by a Pu238 thermo-electric generator.

There is hope that on the moon as well as Mars we'll find caves that can be adapted . But we will also need earth moving equipment. The weight of rock above the cave need to be sufficient to counteract the air pressure within. Assuming we choose to have half of our sea level atmospheric pressure, a rock mass per cubic meter of 2.5 tons and taking account of the local gravity we need about 16 meters on Mars, 25 meters on the moon between the top of the cave and the surface of the planet to avoid inducing tension in the rocks.

Mars is somewhat drier than a desert, but the atmosphere still contains collectable water and lots of water is available near the poles. So let the first expedition land during spring near a pole and a cave, set up an energy system and start building the heavy industry you need. When colonizing on Earth you could start felling trees to get building material and fire wood. On Mars everything is more difficult.

Note - Your heavy industry needs ming for which you also need earth moving equipment. Send it in advance by slow Solar Sail.

delft said:

The Mars rocks we have on Earth were found here, especially in the Antarctic. They were blasted of the Martian surface by meteorite impacts and wandered to Earth in the following millions of years.
There are plans to send probes to Mars with a load of liquid hydrogen and a plant to convert that hydrogen and atmospheric carbon dioxide into liquid oxygen and liquid methane and send the rocket back to Earth with rock samples. The plant is to be powered by a Pu238 thermo-electric generator.

There is hope that on the moon as well as Mars we'll find caves that can be adapted . But we will also need earth moving equipment. The weight of rock above the cave need to be sufficient to counteract the air pressure within. Assuming we choose to have half of our sea level atmospheric pressure, a rock mass per cubic meter of 2.5 tons and taking account of the local gravity we need about 16 meters on Mars, 25 meters on the moon between the top of the cave and the surface of the planet to avoid inducing tension in the rocks.

Mars is somewhat drier than a desert, but the atmosphere still contains collectable water and lots of water is available near the poles. So let the first expedition land during spring near a pole and a cave, set up an energy system and start building the heavy industry you need. When colonizing on Earth you could start felling trees to get building material and fire wood. On Mars everything is more difficult.

Note - Your heavy industry needs ming for which you also need earth moving equipment. Send it in advance by slow Solar Sail.

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While the points you made are generally sound, I do have a few concerns:

1. The human civilization has barely scratched the surface of the moon and Mars. Which means we know very little about the soil composition and what lies beneath. This means uncertainty in exactly what kind of heavy machinery is suitable for the conditions on the moon and Mars.

2. Sending the heavy equipment first makes sense and has been proposed by many sci-fi writers for many years (decades even). The biggest hurdle is cost. Building a space station in earth's orbit already requires numerous countries to share the costs. The cost of sending a manned expedition to Mars is going to be a lot more expensive than that of the International Space Station.

3. There is a lot of speculation on exactly how much water there is on Mars. Before trying to establish a permanent manned presence there, it would be necessary to determine with greater certainty exactly how much water there is in the atmosphere there, and beneath the surface.

4. The time taken to travel from Earth to Mars is quite considerable (~9 months). Feeding the astronauts during that trip itself is already quite an interesting challenge. Than, there's the issue of the effects of living in zero gravity for that duration (such as loss of bone mass). Currently, after a space trip, astronauts go into medical treatment for these issues. That's hardly likely to happen after they land on Mars though, unless medical personnel follow along and medical facilities are made available on Mars as well. That again drives up costs.

While I have no doubt that the technological challenges can be solved, its the financing and the political will to commit to such a huge endeavor that I'm not so sure about.

I was watching GPS on CNN and scientist Nathan Myhrvold said that China was building nuclear power plants for the same price or cheaper than a coal fire plant.



For those not interest in watching the whole video just jump to the 25 minute mark.

Hermann Oberth, one of the space flight pioneers from the time before the V-2, said, in German, Why look to go far away when the moon is so near. We will no doubt try out techniques on the moon while collecting more information about Mars.
There is a lot of speculation about the amount of water on Mars, but even at the driest estimate there is enough for our purposes.
The travel time is mainly important for the chance of being hit by a solar storm. We need to have some way of predicting these and make the travel time short. The conventional rocket with a travel time of nine months must be quite unacceptable. Btw some cosmonauts were able to walk immediately after landing even after many months in Mir. But they had to work hard during their time in space to keep their muscles and bones in condition.
With all the work to be done to prepare for establishing the first base on Mars we'll have plenty of time to think about financing.