Nokia was not replaced from its dominance in feature phones. No one was able to beat Nokia by making a better feature phone, people stopped buying feature phones and started buying smartphones a completely new product category. By comparison, Windows has not been replaced in PC's because no one has been able to replace a PC. The same thing with printers for example, where HP is dominant and no one can replace them. Same thing in cars, where the same car companies continue to dominate.
Tik Tok did not replace Facebook by the way, they created a new product with a new purpose. The original function of Facebook which is being in touch with friends or messaging or the timeline, they have not been replaced by another product. Just because tik tok is popular, doesn't mean it has beaten Facebook.
Every technology has a fast growth period and then stagnation. We have not been able to replace cars with something better. We have not been able to replace the laptop with something better. I doubt we will be able to replace the smartphone with something else. Wearable tech, VR they all tried and failed because they do not provide enough benefit.
In fact the overall pace of computer technology is slowly becoming stagnant. The benefit we got in terms efficiency and lifestyle changes was much higher when PC first came along and then internet came along. Compare that with the benefits we got from the smartphone? Minuscule. So, the guarantee that technology will keep getting better and better is not true. The benefits that will come will become smaller and smaller. And most people will not find it beneficial to move to the new product category.
Mobile payments have not taken off in the US and will probably never take off. Cause the benefit of mobile payments is miniscule compared to using a credit card. It took off in China because they did not even have credit cards in wide adoption.
So, the notion that google services will be replaced by something far better is not guaranteed. Maybe Gmail is best form of e-mail ever and no company can become better enough to actually make people replace it. Email has not been replaced by messaging apps like Whatsapp. They have their own niche category now. Email is now used for formal communication.
So there is no guarantee Chinese companies can ever beat Google. Sure they will create new product categories. But there is no guarantee those categories will even be useful enough to replace older tech wholesale.
The biggest China has is its lower GDP per capita. Its much cheaper to hire engineers in China vs US. So, that means Chinese companies can make their products cheaper or come up with a better product by using more engineers. This advantage will slowly accumulate and Chinese companies will beat Americans eventually. But it will take many many years of slow and steady accumulation. It will take 30-40 years or even longer. This is a battle of attrition, not a battle that can be won by outflanking.
Tik Tok did not replace Facebook by the way, they created a new product with a new purpose. The original function of Facebook which is being in touch with friends or messaging or the timeline, they have not been replaced by another product. Just because tik tok is popular, doesn't mean it has beaten Facebook.
Every technology has a fast growth period and then stagnation. We have not been able to replace cars with something better. We have not been able to replace the laptop with something better. I doubt we will be able to replace the smartphone with something else. Wearable tech, VR they all tried and failed because they do not provide enough benefit.
In fact the overall pace of computer technology is slowly becoming stagnant. The benefit we got in terms efficiency and lifestyle changes was much higher when PC first came along and then internet came along. Compare that with the benefits we got from the smartphone? Minuscule. So, the guarantee that technology will keep getting better and better is not true. The benefits that will come will become smaller and smaller. And most people will not find it beneficial to move to the new product category.
Mobile payments have not taken off in the US and will probably never take off. Cause the benefit of mobile payments is miniscule compared to using a credit card. It took off in China because they did not even have credit cards in wide adoption.
So, the notion that google services will be replaced by something far better is not guaranteed. Maybe Gmail is best form of e-mail ever and no company can become better enough to actually make people replace it. Email has not been replaced by messaging apps like Whatsapp. They have their own niche category now. Email is now used for formal communication.
So there is no guarantee Chinese companies can ever beat Google. Sure they will create new product categories. But there is no guarantee those categories will even be useful enough to replace older tech wholesale.
The biggest China has is its lower GDP per capita. Its much cheaper to hire engineers in China vs US. So, that means Chinese companies can make their products cheaper or come up with a better product by using more engineers. This advantage will slowly accumulate and Chinese companies will beat Americans eventually. But it will take many many years of slow and steady accumulation. It will take 30-40 years or even longer. This is a battle of attrition, not a battle that can be won by outflanking.
