News on China's scientific and technological development.

antiterror13

Brigadier
These companies doing the ipo in the US must be crazy. The US has made it clear that they don't welcome Chinese listings. These companies will be better served by listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai instead, where politics and economy are way more stable.


yeahhh, but NYSE and or NASDAQ by far still the biggest ... much more money there
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I don't think China is still serious about "let's make a new eco-system" project. The Chinese elites fundamentally still believe they will be accepted by the west if they somehow modify their behavior, give up on core issues (many willing to give up Taiwan/Hong Kong and so forth). Many believe in a so called "rule based world order" even within the party leadership.
Who are you referring to? I have never heard of a Chinese elite or politician hint that they wish to modify Chinese behavior to appease the West much less budge an inch on Hong Kong/ROC. Not even in the SCS. It's political suicide in China. Who are you talking about?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
A brief history from the founder of SMIC, the challenges and solution.

from cnTechPost

SMIC Founder: Next-gen semiconductors don't need big investment, talent is key
2020-08-05 20:59:02 GMT+8 | cnTechPost
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How do we understand the many restrictions the US has placed on China's high-tech industry?
Similar restrictions have been in place for a long time, said Richard Chang, founder and former CEO of China’s leading contract chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), at the Third Generation Semiconductor Development Opportunity Exchange Summit in China.

He said that attitudes have varied from administration to administration and that Trump's approach to China has been the toughest.

What's the reason for the massive crackdown on Chinese technology, mainly 5G communications, and the restrictions?
Richard Chang says that when the US found out that China was putting a lot of competitive pressure on it, the head of the US administration will want to go for a crackdown.
If fair competition doesn't win, it will take an administrative approach, he said.


SMIC Founder: Next-gen semiconductors don't need big investment, talent is key-cnTechPost't need big investment, talent is key-cnTechPost

He also mentioned that the US ability to constrain China is not as strong as it should be, but we should not take it lightly.


Richard Chang worked at Texas Instruments for 20 years before moving to Shanghai in April 2004 to found SMIC and become CEO.


In November 2009, he announced his departure from SMIC to enter the field of LED development and manufacturing and LED-related applications.

On August 4, Richard Chang also explained the current status of China's third-generation semiconductor industry at the conference.
Richard Chang said that the semiconductor industry requires long-term investment, especially in third-generation semiconductors, which follow not Moore's Law, but post Moore's Law.

The equipment for third-generation semiconductors is not particularly expensive, the line width is not very small, and the investment is not very big, but the materials are not easy to make, and the design needs to have advantages, he said.
Therefore, Richard Chang believes that the key to the development of the third-generation semiconductor industry is human resources, even if the investment is not large.

Here is what Richard Chang had to say at the Third Generation Semiconductor Development Opportunity Exchange Summit in China:
Currently, the United States has many restrictions on China's high-tech industry, but this did not start just now.


The Paris Coordinating Committee, which has been around since before 2000 (the organization was disbanded in April 1994), is also an international technology embargo.

More recently, there was the Wassenaar Agreement, which imposed embargoes on certain countries on high-tech technology, materials, equipment, and so on.
In 2000, when we returned to the Chinese mainland to build a chip factory, these restrictions were still in place, but the Bush administration was more supportive of China and gradually opened some restrictions during his term of office.
At SMIC, we had to apply for a license to introduce technologies, equipment, and products from the 0.18-micron level into the Chinese mainland.


We went to the United States to apply for 0.18 micron and 0.13 micron, and we got countersignatures from four departments of the US government, including the US State Department, the Commerce Department, the Defense Department, and the Department of Energy.

The Department of Energy is special in that it is afraid that we will make atomic bombs and other weapons, but we don't, so the Department of Energy usually goes through very quickly.

So, this restriction has always existed, but after 2000, it was gradually reduced, and we were able to apply for approval from 0.18 micron to 90 nm, 65 nm, and 45 nm.
And the 45nm technology was transferred from IBM, which was quite advanced at that time.
Since then, we have applied for 32 nm - a process that can be extended to 28 nm.
After that, I myself left SMIC and may not have continued to apply for technology below 28 nm, but I may not have needed it.

In short, different US presidents will have different strategies for restricting devices and so on, and Trump's strategy for China is the most stringent.
In the early days, the US Commerce Department was very supportive, and the Defense Department had a lot of opinions, but they were all approved after discussions among the four ministries.
But this time, the biggest resistance came from the US Department of Commerce, mainly because the US is lagging behind in 5G technology, so it wants China to slow down its development in the 5G field, and there are precedents for such restrictions.
At that time, Japanese memory technology was much more advanced than the US in terms of technology, design, and yield rate, so the US began to restrict Japan and later forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord.
As you can see, Japan could not resist the pressure from the US, and the memory industry almost disappeared, with only one or two companies still surviving.

In terms of logic, Japan has no special advantage in the first place, and so far it is not the leader.
However, Japan's leadership is in analog and digital-analog mixing, and it has been doing well in components for automobiles and high-speed railways.
At that time, under the influence of the United States, Japan was greatly restricted in all aspects, and the pace of development slowed down.
However, Japan did not stop its pace, but to delve into the study of materials and equipment, so it is still very advanced in these aspects.
For example, about 51% of the world's 300 mm large silicon wafers are now produced by two companies, Shinetsu and Matsuguchi.

Japan is a leader in the field of photoresist, special chemicals, and materials.
In terms of equipment, Japan is also very advanced in photolithography, and other basic equipment can be produced independently, such as diffusion furnaces and LPC monoliths.
In general, however, Japan's equipment, especially in the memory sector, still took a big hit after the US imposed restrictions on Japanese technology.
However, this time, when the US found out that China was putting a lot of competitive pressure on it, the US administrator started to want to crack down on and restrict Chinese technology, mainly in 5G communications.
If China stays ahead of the curve on 5G technology, it will be well ahead in the future in communications, artificial intelligence, cloud services, etc., because China is strong in high-tech applications.

Shakespeare, which has been making a lot of noise lately, is much better than Facebook in the US, which is also a social networking site with a lot of interesting features, and it is instantly liked by many young people in the US.
Of course, you can also see that the person in charge of Facebook is talking very sourly, saying how China is not good, all out of jealousy.
If the US can't win a fair fight, it will take an administrative approach.
The US did it to Japan once in the 1980s, and starting in 2018, it's constraining 5G again, this time it's no longer against Japan.

The US is not as good at constraining China, but we should not take it lightly.
The first generation of semiconductor materials, the earliest use of germanium, and then from germanium to silicon, because of the production of silicon, technology development is also very good, so basically has completely replaced the germanium.
But below 40 nm, germanium is back in use, and germanium-silicon channels allow electron flow to be very fast.
The second generation is the use of compound semiconductor materials, such as our common is gallium arsenide or indium phosphide, these can be used in the field of amplifiers, early it is faster.
However, because arsenic is highly toxic, it is now banned in many places, so the application of gallium arsenide is still limited to high-speed power amplifiers. Indium phosphide is used to make light-emitting devices, such as LEDs.
In the third generation, better compound materials appeared, including silicon carbide, gallium nitride, aluminum nitride, and so on.
Silicon carbide in high voltage, high power, and other areas have special advantages; gallium nitride conversion frequency can be very high, so often used in high-frequency power amplifier devices; aluminum nitride used in special areas, civilian will be involved in less.
In addition, there are some semiconductors are quite special, do not know the classification of the first generation, the time they are through the second and third generation.
For example, cadmium antimonide, mercury antimonide, and so on. The use of these materials is very special, the process is also more complex, basically folk rarely use it, but they also belong to the scope of the semiconductor.
Third-generation semiconductor materials are often used in the 5G field, such as gallium nitride, which is used in high-frequency chips for 5G.


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My guess is that SMIC 7nm would be comparable to Intel 10nm when they both start mass production next year.

Comparative figures below

2014: Intel 14nm - 44 MTr/mm²
2021: Intel 10nm - 100 MTr/mm²

2018: TSMC 7nm DUV - 91 MTr/mm²
2019: TSMC 7nm+ EUV - 115 MTr/mm²
2020: TSMC 5nm EUV - 171 MTr/mm²
2021: TSMC 3nm EUV - ??


MTr/mm^2 = Million Transistors per Square millimeter?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes, it is very likely that SMIC will be producing their own 7nm Chips soon. SMIC has apparently been developing their 7nm FINFET Chip technology for quite a while but have been hampered in production by lack of technology (Did SMIC get the latest DUV Litho machine from ASML?)

It recently inked a R&D and Cooperation Agreement with SMEE which will open the way for production of the 7nm Chips. This means it will probably be using the latest SMEE 22/28nm DUV Litho Equipment to produce these 7nm Chips for a Special Customer.

These two article i believe explain what happened and how the breakthrough in production of the 7nm Chips happened for SMIC.

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Is this not a VERY BIG DEAL? Has this not thwarted US attempts to keep China much behind so as to ensure that China does not have access or capability of highly advanced chip manufacturing?

Does this provide Huawei with the option of fully procuring advanced chips that it requires from domestic sources that the United States cannot prevent it from having?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
You are right on this. China cannot rely on American Charity forever. As a Major Power, China has to develop its own complete Tech Ecosystem in order for its Tech Industry to grow and thrive in the future.

These American Sanctions are probably a gift to China as it will force the Chinese to start developing their own indigeneous Tech Industry with its own IP.

China can provide the World with an alternative to the mainly American Social Media, Internet Services, Phone OS, Conputers, Chips etc. Huawei can become more like Apple in the area of Smartphones. etc. Maybe major Chinese Phone manfacturers can jointly develop a Open Source Mobile OS.

Yes......the new Tech battleground will be in emerging economies as China and the US compete to provide their own Tech and services.


Be prepared for American blockades, coups, and invasions of many of the less developed countries to prevent them from purchasing competitive good quality Chinese hi-tech products. Do not put that beyond Americans, especially if Republicans are in power.
 

daifo

Major
Registered Member
Isn't it free money if they get delisted in the US? Just re-ipo back in asia for more money :D

These companies doing the ipo in the US must be crazy. The US has made it clear that they don't welcome Chinese listings. These companies will be better served by listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai instead, where politics and economy are way more stable.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
yeahhh, but NYSE and or NASDAQ by far still the biggest ... much more money there
That is exactly why they should list in HK or Shanghai. By listing in HK and Shanghai, you are making yourself bigger, rather than making the hostile enemy bigger. China's companies ipo are among the world's largest anyway. Why would you list in hostile country and benefit their stock exchanges?
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
> Africa/Latin America/Middle-East/ASEAN

These can be enough if China actually wins these markets. Problem is I have yet to see China seriously compete or win a PR war anywhere in the world.

In any case, China should not do the US work for them. While it's good to have a backup to Samsung, keep doing business with them until the US acts. Make the US actually take the step of threatening Samsung so Korea knows what the cost is of their situation.

Air conditioners and refrigerators use to be considered luxuries of the West until China came along. Did the West make products for others to afford? No.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think China is still serious about "let's make a new eco-system" project. The Chinese elites fundamentally still believe they will be accepted by the west if they somehow modify their behavior, give up on core issues (many willing to give up Taiwan/Hong Kong and so forth). Many believe in a so called "rule based world order" even within the party leadership.

So, you can say they drank the cool-aid of the western globalist/universal values theory. They still hope whatever Trump is doing is not serious/ somehow Trump will stop escalation/ US public will be pragmatic. So, in a sense, they think American society and national psyche are similar to theirs, which is not true.

Just because China and Chinese people are extremely pragmatic and focused on money making, doesn't mean America and the west will be the same.

When Chinese people look at tech eco-system, they think about efficiency. They look at American tech eco-system and think if I use it I will save money, why go the extra effort?

Even during the height of anti-China feeling in the US, many Chinese companies are still trying to do a US IPO. Many Chinese companies still anounce that they will launch a new product in the US such as a Chinese car or a phone. Again, anyone who understands the American mood right now would never do such things. But the Chinese do anyway, because they are still hoping that Americans will focus on money making over preserving their dominance.

If China was really thinking in realist terms, they would never allow Chinese companies to go for global expansion while using Google Playstore/Gmail/Google eco-system. Even if it was painful, they would focus on making their own eco-system. But they never thought like, they thought about maximum efficiency and Google/US chip tech provided that.

Even now after all the sanctions and bans, why is China not dictating that if a US company does not sell to Huawei, it cannot sell to any other Chinese company. How about a different policy such as, all Chinese companies selling phones or laptops must have Chinese developed OS and services.
Or how about a pressuring all the Chinese phone makers to work together to come with a single app store and a single email and map and phone OS? Nope. Everyone is trying to do their own thing and failing.

That's why I am saying it will take 30-40 years. China will never commit to a strong self-reliance policy. They will do it bit by bit. It will be american bans that will force them to change and those bans will come on slowly.

I disagree with your assessment.

Chinese elites now believe that the US is committed to keeping China technologically behind, so that US companies can continue to occupy the technology high ground. That is simple commercial logic that everyone understands.

And if China had gone for completely domestic solutions for global expansion, China wouldn't have grown as fast as it actually did.

It's not in China's interests to implement blanket bans against foreign technology, as this would threaten China's central role in the global electronics supply chain. That is a huge amount of leverage.

And in terms of timeframe, I give it 5-10 years before China has decent alternatives for almost every US technology import.
Previously, the Chinese market and Chinese R&D spending just wasn't big enough to do this, nor was there a compelling reason to.
The National Science Foundation reported to Congress that China likely spent more on R&D than the USA in 2019.
 
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