An excellent article provided by JustAnotherPerson (PAKISTAN DEFENSE FORUM)
Huawei obsession will cause serious damage to US semiconductor industry: expert Featured
The US obsession with Chinese telecommunications equipment vendor Huawei Technologies may be well-intentioned, but could end up seriously harming the country's economy and national security, a senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, says, in an article written as a brief for the Centre and sent to subscribers of
website in its weekly email titled "What we're reading this week".
In the article, very appropriately headlined
, Scott Kennedy said the campaign against Huawei threatened an industry which was the bedrock of the US economy: the semiconductor industry.
"The campaign to isolate Huawei and the greater technology decoupling enterprise threatens this historic success and accelerates China’s technological independence," he wrote.
"Decoupling would also harm the United States’ military preparedness and reduce the costs of Chinese aggression, most importantly, with respect to Taiwan."
Rather than the policy it had adopted, Kennedy said the US needed a policy he called principled inter-dependence to address the risks posed by Huawei and Beijing's high-tech drive, while also continuing to benefit from being part of a dynamic global economy.
"This approach does not require the United States to trust Huawei or China, but it does depend on Washington having greater confidence in itself and working more effectively with friends and allies," he said.
For a number of years now, in fact since 2012 when a 66-page Congressional report on Huawei painted the company as not doing business "the American way", the US administration has been campaigning to have Huawei equipment removed from its networks.
There is plenty of such equipment as it was used liberally during the rollout of 3G and 4G networks in the US, especially in rural areas where Huawei's pricing and attention to getting things working properly before leaving endeared the company to rural network authorities.
In May 2019, the US placed Huawei on its Entity List; companies placed on it cannot obtain products made in the US with more than 25% of American content without obtaining a licence. But Huawei was able to easily skirt around this restriction by getting products it needed supplied by branches of US firms located outside the physical boundaries of the US.
American companies have no objection to doing business with Huawei; indeed, they are eager not to lose this business because Huawei's orders are in the millions and, often, billions of dollars.
About the only outcome from the Entity List entry to affect Huawei was its inability to continue using the proprietary version of Google's Android mobile operating system; this includes apps like Gmail, Maps, Drive, YouTube, the PlayStore and Photos. Huawei has had to confine itself to using the open-source version of Android, which has none of these apps, and is trying to create replacements.
Google applied for an exemption to continue supplying Huawei, but did not get one. Microsoft was more successful, obtaining a waiver from the Department of Commerce to continue supplying the Shenzhen firm with its Windows operating system that Huawei uses on its laptops.
The US came back in May this year with further restrictions aimed at cutting off Huawei's supply of semiconductors which it gets mostly from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. This was done through the Foreign Direct Product Rule that makes it necessary for any company — American or foreign — that sells American products or those made using American technology to require a permit before selling to Huawei.
Kennedy's musings apply to this latter rule. He pointed out that according to the US trade lobby group, the Semiconductor Industry Association, between 2000 and 2019, US chip sales almost doubled from US$102 billion (A$141.5 billion) to US$193 billion and now claimed 44.5% of the entire global market.
"Over the same period, domestic employment in the sector rose from 186,000 to 241,000 — many working in the country’s 71 major commercial fabrication facilities, which are spread across 18 states. The US chip sector is bolstered by a leadership position in semiconductor equipment, the tools used to make and process wafers as well as {those used to] test and assemble the final chipsets," Kennedy explained.
"According to the US International Trade Commission, US chip equipment firms, which have roughly 60,000 domestic employees, account for at least half of global production and in several areas are the only supplier. The United States is even more dominant in chip design software, controlling 80% of the global market."
Kennedy is not the first American expert to warn that Washington's semiconductor moves would end up hurting the US; as
iTWire reported recently, China expert Doug Fuller has
that the US Government may end up shooting itself in the foot by weaponising the semiconductor supply chain.
Another word of advice has come from the British international magazine,
The Economist, which
the May strictures could drive part of the semiconductor industry out of the US, not exactly the outcome that power brokers in the US expect.
Kennedy said the industry’s success was not achieved in isolation. Its growth — and the rise of chip firms such as Intel, Qualcomm and Nvidia, equipment makers such as Applied Materials and LAM Research and chip design software firms such as Synopsis and Cadence — was intimately connected with the rise of the Asia-Pacific as a nexus of design, production, assembly, testing and consumption of chips and related downstream sectors; everything from smartphones and computers to telecommunications equipment and medical devices.
In this mix, China played an enormous role, Kennedy said. He illustrated this by pointing out that Chinese companies and consumers were deeply woven into this highly integrated network.
"China was the direct destination of US$8.8 billion of the US chip sector’s US$46 billion in exports in 2019; but if you include total sales from US chip firms, the total was at least US$70 billion," Kennedy said. "Those chips go to downstream Chinese and multinational firms, which are often co-located in dense industrial clusters, facilitating the continuous improvement of products and services at declining costs for global consumers.
"Simultaneously, US chip equipment firms export about 90% of their production, with the great majority going to East Asia, including US$3.6 billion to China. In addition to hugely benefitting from access to the Chinese market, having Huawei and other Chinese ICT firms integrated into global production networks means they are part of US-led ecosystems.
"Despite progress by Huawei and other Chinese firms, they are still dependent on US and Western firms higher up the food chain. Many elements of this hierarchy have endured, with the semiconductor industry as its most crucial cog."