News on China's scientific and technological development.

mossen said:

This sounds like "keep the DUV/EUV sanctions intact but let the GPUs from Nvidia flow freely". Probably a smarter take than current policy, but I suspect too little too, late even if implemented.

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The reason they can't do this is because the US's goal is not to make China dependent on its chips - which the US doesn't manufacture, any way - but to prevent China from achieving similar capability in cutting edge industries like AI, 5G, super computing, etc. that have strong practical implications for its commercial and military advantages over China.

Remember, these chips sanctions all started with Huawei beating Western companies to 5G. The charges against Huawei were a joke; what they did not want to see happen was Chinese 5G being installed all over the world and Chinese smart phones taking over markets. To stop Huawei, they banned not just chips sales, but also the entire US software ecosystem, while pressuring their allies to not use anything made by Huawei.

It didn't matter that Huawei relied on US chips, equipment, and software in much of its products. What mattered was the technology they demonstrated was cutting edge and represented China catching up to the US in capability. Allowing China to buy its way into this capability would defeat the whole policy.

The US wanted a world where they could keep Chinese industries and the Chinese military two generations behind. They couldn't do that without banning high end chips. But it turns out, they couldn't do it even with banning high end chips.

The strategic mistake was to show their hand too soon. Cutting off chips at a more critical moment - like the start of a war between the US and China over Taiwan - would've been much more devastating, but I guess US policy makers had no patience and were tired of waiting for China to actually make a stupid move.

siegecrossbow said:

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It’s kneeling time!

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Export chips without exporting its manufacturing tools. Well sounds that’s a great incentive for Beijing to place massive national security tariffs/quotas on imported chips to boost nascent domestic industries. This is forcing to to go full Listian.

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Export chips without exporting its manufacturing tools. Well sounds that’s a great incentive for Beijing to place massive national security tariffs/quotas on imported chips to boost nascent domestic industries. This is forcing to to go full Listian.

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China has learned its lesson about the supposed reliability of global supply chain and “free market”. It is as a great man once said: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t fool me again”.

siegecrossbow said:

China has learned its lesson about the supposed reliability of global supply chain and “free market”. It is as a great man once said: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t fool me again”.

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Both "free trade" and WTO are dead for sure. China should really stop abiding by WTO rules (especially the all MFN-related clauses) and adopt different bilateral trade standards based on national security considerations. Decoupling is de-risking, meaning de-risking from countries that have long sought to keep you down only to make cheap light industrial products for them as slave labours. Every country deserves the right to pursue R&D in the scientific field, except not every country has the means and resources to do so.

The best strategy for the U.S. would be to allow tech exports of both chips and equipment in civilian sectors, but make it clear that in the event of military conflict, both of them will be cut off. Essentially, this maximizes the "carrot and stick" to push China's incentives away from military aggression, which should be the West's goal. Of course, China's government would attempt to develop domestic substitutes for its military, but it would not likely be successful as the private sector would rush back to buy Western products.

This policy would also have the added benefit (for the West) of increasing revenues for its tech companies (and this would be Chinese money, not their own taxpayers' subsidy money), which could then be used to plough back into investments and get even further ahead of China. So it would be the ideal policy for the West, basically to get China hooked on its semiconductor products (I'm not convinced it is too late at all, even now, Huawei is still using Intel and Qualcomm chips in many of its products, just look at its laptop line. Other Chinese companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, etc. are even more hooked), but it would be hard to get their politicians' buy-in.

siegecrossbow said:

China has learned its lesson about the supposed reliability of global supply chain and “free market”. It is as a great man once said: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t fool me again”.

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The wisdom of the great philosopher 闪避鞋

gadgetcool5 said:

The best strategy for the U.S. would be to allow tech exports of both chips and equipment in civilian sectors, but make it clear that in the event of military conflict, both of them will be cut off. Essentially, this maximizes the "carrot and stick" to push China's incentives away from military aggression, which should be the West's goal. Of course, China's government would attempt to develop domestic substitutes for its military, but it would not likely be successful as the private sector would rush back to buy Western products.

This policy would also have the added benefit (for the West) of increasing revenues for its tech companies (and this would be Chinese money, not their own taxpayers' subsidy money), which could then be used to plough back into investments and get even further ahead of China. So it would be the ideal policy for the West, basically to get China hooked on its semiconductor products (I'm not convinced it is too late at all, even now, Huawei is still using Intel and Qualcomm chips in many of its products, just look at its laptop line. Other Chinese companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, etc. are even more hooked), but it would be hard to get their politicians' buy-in.

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It's too late in the sense that trust is broken. Huawei will cultivate it's domestic supply chain and use SK Hynix or Intel as a momentary stop gap. Once domestic alternatives are mature enough to replace foreign input entirely, the purchases will end abruptly. In other words, you cannot mistake convenience with dependency.

gadgetcool5 said:

The best strategy for the U.S. would be to allow tech exports of both chips and equipment in civilian sectors, but make it clear that in the event of military conflict, both of them will be cut off. Essentially, this maximizes the "carrot and stick" to push China's incentives away from military aggression, which should be the West's goal. Of course, China's government would attempt to develop domestic substitutes for its military, but it would not likely be successful as the private sector would rush back to buy Western products.

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Bro you're a long time member in this forum and you participate on a lot of debates, surely you know that the Chinese military are producing their own chip. CETC comes to mind and they produced at the latest a 22nm chip. So your argument is a complete false to begin with.

gadgetcool5 said:

This policy would also have the added benefit (for the West) of increasing revenues for its tech companies (and this would be Chinese money, not their own taxpayers' subsidy money), which could then be used to plough back into investments and get even further ahead of China. So it would be the ideal policy for the West, basically to get China hooked on its semiconductor products (I'm not convinced it is too late at all, even now, Huawei is still using Intel and Qualcomm chips in many of its products, just look at its laptop line. Other Chinese companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, etc. are even more hooked), but it would be hard to get their politicians' buy-in.

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Well the damage had been done and there is NO TURNING BACK, the Chinese had an alternative, SMIC N+1 and N+2 can supply the basic need of the Chinese industries, from AI, 5G Base station and others. What the Chinese need to do is to scale up production to meet those demand. Kirin 9000s is almost comparable to Qualcomm snapdragon 888, a 7nm vs a 5nm chip. With TSMC having trouble with their 3nm yield at least we are only a generation away.

gadgetcool5 said:

The best strategy for the U.S. would be to allow tech exports of both chips and equipment in civilian sectors, but make it clear that in the event of military conflict, both of them will be cut off. Essentially, this maximizes the "carrot and stick" to push China's incentives away from military aggression, which should be the West's goal. Of course, China's government would attempt to develop domestic substitutes for its military, but it would not likely be successful as the private sector would rush back to buy Western products.

This policy would also have the added benefit (for the West) of increasing revenues for its tech companies (and this would be Chinese money, not their own taxpayers' subsidy money), which could then be used to plough back into investments and get even further ahead of China. So it would be the ideal policy for the West, basically to get China hooked on its semiconductor products (I'm not convinced it is too late at all, even now, Huawei is still using Intel and Qualcomm chips in many of its products, just look at its laptop line. Other Chinese companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, etc. are even more hooked), but it would be hard to get their politicians' buy-in.

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You’ve got to be kidding me. CETC produced semiconductor is used for satellite communications on Mate 60 Pro. It is revolutionary and cheap/reliable enough for a mass produced commercial item. How is it not successful?

siegecrossbow said:

You’ve got to be kidding me. CETC produced semiconductor is used for satellite communications on Mate 60 Pro. It is revolutionary and cheap/reliable enough for a mass produced commercial item. How is it not successful?

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i still can't believe. some people actually think, China will accept all terms and conditions of USA lets suppose they lift up sanctions. LMAO

that ship has sailed. we don't need any US technology.

Party has strict orders. all strategic industries must and should be independent. and we are so close to to achieve this immunity. by 2025 basic industrial foundation will be completed in all strategic industries.

@ACuriousPLAFan .. PLA running its own fab. exclusively for military industrial complex. last year during Zhuhai Air show, authorities have confirmed 100 percent localization.