News on China's scientific and technological development.

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Companies like Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba are similar to Google, Facebook, and Microsoft in that they are highly hierarchical, political, and bureaucratic corporations, where a lot of nothing happens until a disruptive trend from a start-up forces them to either buy out the start-up, or be a "fast follower" in the technology. You can also throw in, in this group, South Korean companies like Samsung and Japanese companies like Sony.
I get your point but the highlighted part is incorrect. First of all, OpenAI is hardly a start up - it is more like a research foundation funded by billionaires like Musk, most actual start ups are more likely to focus on existing solutions and their adaptation for commercial application because they don't have large budgets to burn through. Large models like GPT-3 cost millions of dollars to just train from scratch, let alone going through all the research iterations. Their commercialization is also questionable - I am 100% sure that even with the paid subscriptions OpenAI is still losing money on their models.

Secondly, most of the key discoveries that transformed the DL scene into what we see today were made at big corporations or universities - from the first large-scale image classification dataset ImageNet which essentially kickstarted the "arms race" of models was created at Stanford; most fundamental image models like ResNet, Inception, EfficientNet, etc. all come from large corps; first LLMs (GPT-3 is a LLM) were developed in big corps (e.g. BERT); the transformer network which lies in the heart of GPT-3 and other modern LLMs was developed by Google team; etc. You are focusing too much on the hype around certain techs rather than looking at the progression - it is undeniable that large corporations are quite capable of innovating and most of the ground-breaking research advancements in fact often came from such entities. The explanation is rather simple - they have budgets that can sustain such R&D endeavours while start ups are essentially on borrowed time until they are able to commercialize their tech.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The problem, as I said earlier, is that while China has plenty of AI researchers, it doesn't have the same energy or money in its AI start up scene, compared to the West. Or at least, it didn't until recently.

Companies like Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba are similar to Google, Facebook, and Microsoft in that they are highly hierarchical, political, and bureaucratic corporations, where a lot of nothing happens until a disruptive trend from a start-up forces them to either buy out the start-up, or be a "fast follower" in the technology. You can also throw in, in this group, South Korean companies like Samsung and Japanese companies like Sony.

That's why they were all beaten by Open AI, a company of merely 350 people. Microsoft at least had the foresight to invest in Open AI, but even then, why couldn't they build it themselves? Whey did Open AI and Stability AI beat them to market on ChatGPT, StableDiffusion, and Dall-E? It's the same reason Chinese companies like Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba fail to be first to market. Corporations of that size just can't innovate at the same speed. Too much internal bureaucracy and corporate paralysis.

China needs more companies in the AI space like Byte Dance, DJI, and Mihoyo - unicorns that can move quickly and without the usual regulatory and bureaucratic bull **** that paralyze the big corporations. It must NOT become like Japan and South Korea where the economy is monopolized by such corporations.

Large corporations and consolidation are needed in sectors like chips manufacturing and heavy industries because of the massive over head costs and generally closed technology systems. But in AI and software, start ups rule. So what I'll be looking for from the Chinese government is the ability to distinguish between these two sectors. Xi is trying to bring more of the economy under state control; that could be a positive for advanced manufacturing industries, but it could be a negative for software and AI companies, which benefit from being less centralized.
Eh, the big companies were certainly not resting in their barrels, that's for sure. Google already had a large language model internally, image generator and video generator. The reason why they didn't release the large language model should be obvious to anyone, it would have killed off their primary revenue (search/ads) stream. In addition, being a large tech company which must be careful politically it certainly didn't want an unpolished product to be published because all hell would be let loose on them.

Just an example, in the early stage, ChatGPT was made to give step-by-step instructions on how to suicide... Now imagine if Google's product made this. You would see the stock price collapsing from bad PR from a mile away.

As for Microsoft, not an expert but I heard that they made a wrong bet on picking which technology to use for AI and as a result they are now behind the curve, which is why they rushed into buying ChatGPT so quickly

Baidu and Alibaba are just some months behind, nothing too serious. For Tencent, I don't know a lot about them, but given that I consider them a garbage company (relatively to what they could have been), I wouldn't be surprised if they are seriously lagging behind like Microsoft did
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
I get your point but the highlighted part is incorrect. First of all, OpenAI is hardly a start up - it is more like a research foundation funded by billionaires like Musk, most actual start ups are more likely to focus on existing solutions and their adaptation for commercial application because they don't have large budgets to burn through. Large models like GPT-3 cost millions of dollars to just train from scratch, let alone going through all the research iterations. Their commercialization is also questionable - I am 100% sure that even with the paid subscriptions OpenAI is still losing money on their models.

Secondly, most of the key discoveries that transformed the DL scene into what we see today were made at big corporations or universities - from the first large-scale image classification dataset ImageNet which essentially kickstarted the "arms race" of models was created at Stanford; most fundamental image models like ResNet, Inception, EfficientNet, etc. all come from large corps; first LLMs (GPT-3 is a LLM) were developed in big corps (e.g. BERT); the transformer network which lies in the heart of GPT-3 and other modern LLMs was developed by Google team; etc. You are focusing too much on the hype around certain techs rather than looking at the progression - it is undeniable that large corporations are quite capable of innovating and most of the ground-breaking research advancements in fact often came from such entities. The explanation is rather simple - they have budgets that can sustain such R&D endeavours while start ups are essentially on borrowed time until they are able to commercialize their tech.
I agree that Open AI is far more research oriented than your average start up, but it has many of the same features - which is that it's not tied up in corporate bureaucracy and it doesn't answer to public share holders. Being small, private, and structurally "flat" allows it to take commercial risks that corporations would not.

Beyond that, yes corporations contribute - along side universities - a lot of the "core" research that makes this possible. But there's a difference between writing a paper and realizing a vision. Google, Microsoft, IBM, Facebook, Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, etc. are research power houses. But their applied research product cycles are slow and tedious, because it has to go through so much bureaucracy, politics, etc. That goes for almost all large corporations that I can think of.

If you want to be a leader in this industry, being strong at research is not enough. Taking risks and large leaps of faith is necessary. This is what start ups do so well. Yes, most start ups fail and are cash grab schemes. But the successful unicorns among them change the world, and they seem to appear only in the West and China - when's the last time you saw a South Korean or Japanese unicorn? That's the edge China needs to develop in AI.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I think OP brings up a prescient point though about whether China can break the mold of other East Asian tech superpowers. Japan and South Korea for all the years they've been tech superpowers have proven extremely adept at perfecting existing technologies and taking market share away from Western companies, in some cases even becoming hegemons in certain fields like Japan did with automobiles. What they have not been as succesful in however, is developing tech that revolutionizes the way we live, like the Smart Phone or ChatGPT.

And this leads into the next point, I see sentiment from pro-China circles that as long as China cracks semiconductors it has the tech game in the bag over America. That's most certainly not the case. Even taking the advantage of immigration out of the equation, America has an intrinsically entrepeneurial culture that drives people to make breakthroughs like ChatGPT. I would go as far as to say even if Biden was overthrown in an extreme right wing coup tomorrow and all immigration to America was stopped, America would suffer but would still have many structual advantages over China.

This technological Cold War won't be an easy battle by any stretch of the imagination. And with respect to ChatGPT, I've read some opinons online that when it comes to language AI, America has the insurmountable advantage since English is the world's lingua franca and that there's simply more data for ChatGPT to go off on. Because lets get that out of the way, ChatGPT is essentially wikipedia if it can autogenerate essays based on its databases, its not a machine capable of doing the thinking of a human being. China could probably pull ahead in robotic AI and other areas, but those breakthroughs won't happen for a while. Be optimistic as China has many advantages of its own, but do know its not going to be a walk in the park.
I think people are overrating ChatGPT
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
This technological Cold War won't be an easy battle by any stretch of the imagination. And with respect to ChatGPT, I've read some opinons online that when it comes to language AI, America has the insurmountable advantage since English is the world's lingua franca and that there's simply more data for ChatGPT to go off on. Because lets get that out of the way, ChatGPT is essentially wikipedia if it can autogenerate essays based on its databases, its not a machine capable of doing the thinking of a human being. China could probably pull ahead in robotic AI and other areas, but those breakthroughs won't happen for a while. Be optimistic as China has many advantages of its own, but do know its not going to be a walk in the park.
I had a friend who worked directly under Andrew Yang in Baidu’s AI lab (this was back in 2016) and his conclusion then was that Baidu’s NLP and DL systems, including for applications such as self driving cars, were much more advanced than what they saw from Google, at least back then. I think it’s very easy for people to make too big a deal out of what sometimes amount to AI gimmicks. While these things make for a good show they don’t always end up being developed into meaningful applications. From what I’ve observed ChatGPT seems impressive from a subjective human experience standpoint because of its uncanny stylistic mimicry, but I’m not so sure that has much meaning for applications that involve the advance of physical systems. The amount of progress being made here is probably smaller in substance than it feels in conversation.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
If someone use to write a long article in a day,now able to do it under an hour with the help of ChatGPT,that's productivity increase
Is the act of producing articles itself materially improving life? If the production of articles is for entertainment, or mental and spiritual consumption, is an article written by an AI providing real value for that purpose, or just autogenerating meaningless junk food?
 

broadsword

Brigadier
From what I’ve observed ChatGPT seems impressive from a subjective human experience standpoint because of its uncanny stylistic mimicry, but I’m not so sure that has much meaning for applications that involve the advance of physical systems. The amount of progress being made here is probably smaller in substance than it feels in conversation.

I just asked this ChatGPT this question:

How much citric acid to add to water to get the pH of distilled vinegar?

The reply:
The pH of distilled vinegar typically ranges from 2.4 to 3.4, with an average value of about 2.8. To achieve this pH in water using citric acid, you would need to know the concentration of the citric acid solution and the volume of water you want to treat.
Assuming you have a solid citric acid powder and want to make a solution, you could use the following steps to estimate the amount of citric acid needed to reach the pH of distilled vinegar:
  1. Determine the desired pH: Let's assume that you want to reach a pH of 2.8.
  2. Calculate the amount of H+ ions needed: The pH is a measure of the concentration of H+ ions in the solution. A pH of 2.8 corresponds to a hydrogen ion concentration of 1.58 × 10^-3 mol/L.
  3. Calculate the amount of citric acid needed: Citric acid is a weak acid that dissociates in water to produce H+ ions. The dissociation constant for citric acid is Ka = 7.4 × 10^-4. To calculate the amount of citric acid needed to produce the desired concentration of H+ ions, use the following equation:
    Ka = [H+][C3H5O(COOH)3]/[C3H5O(COOH)2-]
    Rearrange the equation to solve for the concentration of undissociated citric acid:
    [C3H5O(COOH)2-] = [C3H5O(COOH)3]/[H+] / Ka
    Plug in the values and simplify:
    [C3H5O(COOH)2-] = (1 mol/L) / (1.58 × 10^-3 mol/L) / 7.4 × 10^-4
    [C3H5O(COOH)2-] = 150 mol/L
    This means that at pH 2.8, only 0.67% of the citric acid will be in the undissociated form (C3H5O(COOH)2-).
  4. Calculate the amount of citric acid to add: Let's assume you want to treat 1 liter of water. To reach a pH of 2.8, you need a hydrogen ion concentration of 1.58 × 10^-3 mol/L. Since citric acid is a triprotic acid, it can produce three H+ ions per molecule. Therefore, you need a citric acid concentration of 3 × 1.58 × 10^-3 mol/L = 4.74 × 10^-3 mol/L. Since the desired citric acid concentration is 150 mol/L (as calculated in step 3), you would need to add 4.74 × 10^-3 / 150 = 3.16 × 10^-5 moles of citric acid per liter of water.
In practical terms, this is equivalent to adding about 0.85 grams of citric acid per liter of water, assuming a molar mass of 192.12 g/mol for citric acid. However, this is only an estimate and the exact amount of citric acid needed may vary depending on factors such as the purity of the citric acid, the temperature of the water, and the accuracy of the pH measurement. It's always a good idea to start with a small amount of citric acid and gradually add more until the desired pH is reached, while monitoring the pH carefully with a reliable pH meter.

But no idea if the answer is accurate as I know nothing about chemistry.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I'm a human programmer :p

I have been hearing this from managers since like 2015 and it has never manifested. Writing the code for 99% of the companies is not the issue or hardest part of the job. For 99% of the companies the hardest part of the job is getting management to sign off certain projects, refactoring code bases or complete rewrites and off course office politics.

Github copilot is actually a good example of using AI to boost programmers productivity, I imaging if ChatGPT can be used in such a way it would actually add to western productivity. But i'm more convinced it will be used to write web nonsense and produce a shit load more garbage data.

My take is that instead of copying off stackoverflow, most programmers will use ChatGPT for, ahem, reference.
 
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