News on China's scientific and technological development.

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
But why are China's supercomputer makers afraid of US sanctions? Is it because they rely on parts imported from the US to build their supercomputers?
In the Hu's administration, China used to be a pretty opaque country, they did their own thing and didn't tell anyone, their space program was opaque, their military was opaque as hell, their science was opaque, programs like "Civil- Military Fusion was pretty opaque and their foreign relations were pretty opaque you used to scan the Chinese internet like an eagle to find information about anything in China obviously the West criticized that opacity and demanded "transparency" well when the Xi administration adopted a different approach and gave the West what it wanted: "Transparency", China was no longer shy about its achievements and goals, publicly announced "made in China 2025", the Belt and Road initiative, its space program becomes more transparent, their science was more transparent. As the fog lifted to the west, or to be fair, the American experts began to panic at what they saw and all this confrontation between the United States and China began to heat up. It could be argued that the transparency demanded by the West brought China nothing but trouble.

It could be the case that they now want to be more opaque again, keep a low profile, not telegraph their "adversaries" their intentions and moves, and give them the illusion of winning so they feel good about themselves.

 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
It could be the case that they now want to be more opaque again, keep a low profile, not telegraph their "adversaries" their intentions and moves, and give them the illusion of winning so they feel good about themselves.
I hope they'll be more opaque than before, Its better to keep enemies guessing and make them overestimate your capabilities based on small leaks. The less transparent the economy will be, the harder it would be for them to figure out what to sanction, to determine its effect and blowbacks, and the witness result of it after being executed.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
But why are China's supercomputer makers afraid of US sanctions? Is it because they rely on parts imported from the US to build their supercomputers?
No, these computers use Chinese designed chips and components but it’s because the US will strong arm TSMC to stop making these chips for them. Obama prevented Intel and other US companies from selling chips for Chinese supercomputers but China was still able to make them using their own chips but still need tsmc to make them.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe China had enough of this western run standards,rankings and lists If anything we could learn from recent incidents is that international organisations are not international by any means why validate and strengthen the authenticity of a list by participating that's compromised by the "Rules-based order", Down the line it would become worthless as it won't reflect reality it already happened among the scientific community and only a matter of time for top500 to become a joke
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
In the Hu's administration, China used to be a pretty opaque country, they did their own thing and didn't tell anyone, their space program was opaque, their military was opaque as hell, their science was opaque, programs like "Civil- Military Fusion was pretty opaque and their foreign relations were pretty opaque you used to scan the Chinese internet like an eagle to find information about anything in China obviously the West criticized that opacity and demanded "transparency" well when the Xi administration adopted a different approach and gave the West what it wanted: "Transparency", China was no longer shy about its achievements and goals, publicly announced "made in China 2025", the Belt and Road initiative, its space program becomes more transparent, their science was more transparent. As the fog lifted to the west, or to be fair, the American experts began to panic at what they saw and all this confrontation between the United States and China began to heat up. It could be argued that the transparency demanded by the West brought China nothing but trouble.

It could be the case that they now want to be more opaque again, keep a low profile, not telegraph their "adversaries" their intentions and moves, and give them the illusion of winning so they feel good about themselves.

But is China really so cowed by the West that it is afraid of announcing its own achievements? If so, what does that say about China's confidence?

Or does it pursue "yin" because it wants to give the illusion it has more achievements than it actually does? For the outsider, there is no way to tell the difference.

But in my view, China tends to over-announce and under-deliver. For instance, the C919 was supposed to be delivered by 2021.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
But is China really so cowed by the West that it is afraid of announcing its own achievements? If so, what does that say about China's confidence?

Or does it pursue "yin" because it wants to give the illusion it has more achievements than it actually does? For the outsider, there is no way to tell the difference.

But in my view, China tends to over-announce and under-deliver. For instance, the C919 was supposed to be delivered by 2021.
So the country being accused of all insidious allegations like genocide, forced labour; being sanctions for implementing national security laws on it's own territory like Hong Kong; announcing OBOR only to be accused of unfounded evidence free debt trap, tech and trade sanctions etc...are somehow showing China as not being confident all because it's trying to adjust it's tactics? Are you this daft?

As for your perception of the Chinese giving the illusion of achievement a.k.a. potemkin achievements it's not for the outsider to decide what's real and what's not, the proof itself is in the pudding. If that was the actual case then China wouldn't be causing undue anxiety and hysterics in the west now would it? Do you ever think rationaly and logically or is your faint praise and condescension comes from your western cultured arrogance. Am just asking from the perspective of an Asian outsider.

You then provide one example of C919 to support your nonsense which is just hilarious because I could cite numerous examples from the west lead by America regarding it's numerous defense and non-defense related items being under delivered, over inflated in price, riddled with technical issues some like the LCS, Zumwalt class and many more. Let's not talk about the debacle from the so-called Boeings Nightmareliner a.k.a. dreamliner that was pushed ahead despite valid technical concerns from it's own engineers.

You need to have a better line of argument to use against Red China compadre/homes.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
So the country being accused of all insidious allegations like genocide, forced labour; being sanctions for implementing national security laws on it's own territory like Hong Kong; announcing OBOR only to be accused of unfounded evidence free debt trap, tech and trade sanctions etc...are somehow showing China as not being confident all because it's trying to adjust it's tactics? Are you this daft?

As for your perception of the Chinese giving the illusion of achievement a.k.a. potemkin achievements it's not for the outsider to decide what's real and what's not, the proof itself is in the pudding. If that was the actual case then China wouldn't be causing undue anxiety and hysterics in the west now would it? Do you ever think rationaly and logically or is your faint praise and condescension comes from your western cultured arrogance. Am just asking from the perspective of an Asian outsider.

You then provide one example of C919 to support your nonsense which is just hilarious because I could cite numerous examples from the west lead by America regarding it's numerous defense and non-defense related items being under delivered, over inflated in price, riddled with technical issues some like the LCS, Zumwalt class and many more. Let's not talk about the debacle from the so-called Boeings Nightmareliner a.k.a. dreamliner that was pushed ahead despite valid technical concerns from it's own engineers.

You need to have a better line of argument to use against Red China compadre/homes.
I only point out that the line of argumentation used by the previous poster is chasing its own tail.

IF China announces and proves an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it!"

IF China DOES NOT announce and prove an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it (only they can't show it bc terrified of America)!"

No matter what the China optimist gets to reach the same conclusion. No matter what China never fails. It's a non falsifiable hypothesis, a catch-22 akin to a religion. Except reality doesn't work like that.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
But is China really so cowed by the West that it is afraid of announcing its own achievements? If so, what does that say about China's confidence?
Only the Western-minded feel that being quiet means being cowed and that being loud means being confidence. In the east, the silent chicken eats the most grain; talking too much is a sign of weakness and lack of substance in Chinese culture. By going into steath mode, China is showing its hostility to the West, that they will not have the privilege of a Chinese show and tell because those are for friends. It says that China's confidence is sky high as the inconspicious onlooker with a sly grin rather than the overcompensating loudmouth or the overly gregarious and accomodating small potato hoping to curry the favor of some big bosses.
Or does it pursue "yin" because it wants to give the illusion it has more achievements than it actually does? For the outsider, there is no way to tell the difference.
One simply needs to analyze that every single endeavor that China embarks on, it succeeds. And also that China always moves faster than the US and the last time China made a serious entry, it was already ahead of the US. It's easy to tell for those of us who understand Chinese macro-trends that China is far ahead in the supercomputer race.
But in my view, China tends to over-announce and under-deliver. For instance, the C919 was supposed to be delivered by 2021.
Since your view is always wrong, that's good. China always keeps quiet about what it can really do before blowing everyone's minds at the last second. For example, there is the enveiling of the J-20, the Sunway Taihu Light, the launch of China's quantum satellite, etc... They are all examples of China hiding its progress until the last moment. In contrast, the US enthusiastically announces huge projects like the railgun and then abandons it saying it'll settle for a munition reshaping instead. China, on the other hand, provided no fanfare to its railgun progress until a ship-mounted one was seen at sea, shocking the US that China was ahead of it despite keeping its mouth shut.

C919, unfortunately, has much Western cooperation for an internationally commercially-competitive project, which is why it's buried in paperwork and beaurocracy. Nonetheless, it's still faster than Western projects (infrastructure comes to mind at the top of the very long list) that often move at a snail's clip due to indecisiveness and infighting and end up dead in the water.
I only point out that the line of argumentation used by the previous poster is chasing its own tail.

IF China announces and proves an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it!"

IF China DOES NOT announce and prove an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it (only they can't show it bc terrified of America)!"

No matter what the China optimist gets to reach the same conclusion. No matter what China never fails. It's a non falsifiable hypothesis, a catch-22 akin to a religion. Except reality doesn't work like that.
This is really only a problem for those who lack the mental capacity to do a big picture analysis. Even though China can move in a different pattern depending on the situation, the conclusion is always the same to us, that China is succeeding and will succeed, because historically, it always has. Only those with a very limited scope of mind but an unlimited desperate hope for China's failure endlessly hunt in vain for small things to cast doubt that China might fail this time.
 
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Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
I only point out that the line of argumentation used by the previous poster is chasing its own tail.

IF China announces and proves an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it!"

IF China DOES NOT announce and prove an achievement, then: "China is so great! They can do it (only they can't show it bc terrified of America)!"

No matter what the China optimist gets to reach the same conclusion. No matter what China never fails. It's a non falsifiable hypothesis, a catch-22 akin to a religion. Except reality doesn't work like that.
Your logic is seriously flawed. First of all there is nothing wrong with China announces and proves an achievement, in this case China is great. When China doesn’t make the announcement but it is verified by a third party such as the international technical media then in this case China is also great. There is no catch 22 here except in your mind.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
But is China really so cowed by the West that it is afraid of announcing its own achievements? If so, what does that say about China's confidence?

Or does it pursue "yin" because it wants to give the illusion it has more achievements than it actually does? For the outsider, there is no way to tell the difference.

But in my view, China tends to over-announce and under-deliver. For instance, the C919 was supposed to be delivered by 2021.

For the PLA, concealing their developmental efforts on new systems and weapons and procurement has proven to be quite beneficial in enabling it to reduce the capability gap and produce advancements without broadcasting its intentions and capabilities.

Opacity and information asymmetry is simply prudent if there is ongoing competition in a given domain or industry.


It just means that we have to do a bit more legwork and deduction to estimate what the real state of play is, instead of having it handed to us on a silver platter.



If anything, this should be very much a known quantity for us, given this forum is primarily a PLA watching forum and opacity and deduction is part and parcel of what we do. Expanding that same principle to other industries and domains is very natural and should not be a surprise to any of us, not even you.
 
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