News on China's scientific and technological development.

gelgoog said:

Given the massive delays in the ARJ-21 program, a much simpler aircraft, I think the delays in the C919 were to be expected.
Same deal with lithography. Unless there is a push by Chinese society in this way this would not change. I think the US sanctions should have given the Chinese semiconductor industry the necessary push.

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I'm confused. How much more can Chinese society push the development of these technologies? From what I've read, they are already full speed ahead. Anyone can be an arm chair critic but any specific recommendations?

Also from what I've read, the 28nm machine didn't do well against the 2000i but the prototype against the 1980i has been delivered so I would call it a failure per se.

SMEE needs a competitor. The Japanese had two lithography vendors in the 1980s: Nikon and Canon. The Japanese also had a program where the tools were used early on fabs and there was intense collaboration to get the tools to be optimized for full production. Competition would force them to be more effective.

As for COMAC you just need to look at how the Chinese space program used to be before it was reorganized. It used to be severely behind and now you have Long March 5/7, the Space Station, etc all operational. The government needs to learn lessons from that and apply them to COMAC.

gelgoog said:

SMEE needs a competitor. The Japanese had two lithography vendors in the 1980s: Nikon and Canon. The Japanese also had a program where the tools were used early on fabs and there was intense collaboration to get the tools to be optimized for full production. Competition would force them to be more effective.

As for COMAC you just need to look at how the Chinese space program used to be before it was reorganized. It used to be severely behind and now you have Long March 5/7, the Space Station, etc all operational. The government needs to learn lessons from that and apply them to COMAC.

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Where would the domestic competitors come from though? Split SMEE and COMAC for the sake of competition?

As a matter of fact, SMEE and COMAC already have very strong competitors, from oversea. I would even say that for the time being they need protection more than competition. Of course this does not mean that they should get more blank cheques from the government.

The Chinese space program wasn't as weak as SMEE and COMAC are in their each own market, respectively.

gelgoog said:

Given the massive delays in the ARJ-21 program, a much simpler aircraft, I think the delays in the C919 were to be expected.
Same deal with lithography. Unless there is a push by Chinese society in this way this would not change. I think the US sanctions should have given the Chinese semiconductor industry the necessary push.

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What concerns me is that the US has done pretty much everything it can to signal that it is going to ban suppliers of the C919 if it ever becomes successful, and that it might ban C919 suppliers just for the heck of it, yet there is no peep from China of seeking alternative backup suppliers. The latest reports from the government of aviation goals just mention increasing support for the C919 project but nothing about indigenization and preparing for further sanctions. If China is smart it should have a backup plan in case the US bans C919 suppliers.

Similar to how SMIC is still buying lithography machines from ASML and SMEE's sales did not increase in 2021 despite massive spending by SMIC to increase capacity. There are even news articles on how the US is on the brink of further sanctions on SMIC, yet I don't see more urgency by SMIC to better integrate SMEE's existing machines, like it's SSA600, into its ecosystem.

China's chance for indigenization is now, worse sanctions are coming down the road. They should be preparing backup plans full speed ahead, and that includes of course alternative suppliers for the C919, ARJ21 and CR929.

SanWenYu said:

Where would the domestic competitors come from though? Split SMEE and COMAC for the sake of competition?

As a matter of fact, SMEE and COMAC already have very strong competitors, from oversea. I would even say that for the time being they need protection more than competition. Of course this does not mean that they should get more blank cheques from the government.

The Chinese space program wasn't as weak as SMEE and COMAC are in their each own market, respectively.

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@SanWenYu bro from SMEE maybe CETC? my view both SMEE and CETC are mere assembler and share the same suppliers as posted by @Oldschool , they Supervise and Invest in critical area or bottlenecks which are many. To have a competition first you have to have a product, a commercial product able to satisfy demand. After that enlarge your supply chain, in this technical challenge area only a few are capable cause it involve a lot of investment, only gov't or state company are able to do so DUE to national security concern!

gelgoog said:

SMEE needs a competitor. The Japanese had two lithography vendors in the 1980s: Nikon and Canon. The Japanese also had a program where the tools were used early on fabs and there was intense collaboration to get the tools to be optimized for full production. Competition would force them to be more effective.

As for COMAC you just need to look at how the Chinese space program used to be before it was reorganized. It used to be severely behind and now you have Long March 5/7, the Space Station, etc all operational. The government needs to learn lessons from that and apply them to COMAC.

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Does ASML need another local competitor?

ansy1968 said:

@SanWenYu bro from SMEE maybe CETC? my view both SMEE and CETC are mere assembler and share the same suppliers as posted by @Oldschool , they Supervise and Invest in critical area or bottlenecks which are many. To have a competition first you have to have a product, a commercial product able to satisfy demand. After that enlarge your supply chain, in this technical challenge area only a few are capable cause it involve a lot of investment, only gov't or state company are able to do so DUE to national security concern!

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SMEE barely has any meaningful market share while COMAC has none yet. Both are still in their infancy. They don't need more competitions.

If CETC has talent in lithography, I'd even want to see it combined with SMEE for now.

SanWenYu said:

SMEE barely has any meaningful market share while COMAC has none yet. Both are still in their infancy. They don't need more competitions.

If CETC has talent in lithography, I'd even want to see it combined with SMEE for now.

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@SanWenYu correct bro, in a mature market you need a competitor, in a growth market you need an ACE player. Bro I hope you're a basketball fan, To attain the championship you need to build a team around him/her. In Litho SMEE is the ACE player, he need support, why bring in another Ace player? the focus should be on the role players. Improve their game so that they can contribute. ASML is having a supply chain issue, they need to expand BUT they won't, having cornered the DUVL and monopolized the EUVL market why should they? they have a steady customer due to US intervention at the expense of the Japanese.

ansy1968 said:

@SanWenYu correct bro, in a mature market you need a competitor, in a growth market you need an ACE player. Bro I hope you're a basketball fan, To attain the championship you need to build a team around him/her. In Litho SMEE is the ACE player, he need support, why bring in another Ace player? the focus should be on the role players. Improve their game so that they can contribute. ASML is having a supply chain issue, they need to expand BUT they won't, having cornered the DUVL and monopolized the EUVL market why should they? they have a steady customer due to US intervention at the expense of the Japanese.

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I am not a basketball fan but you explained it well.

SanWenYu said:

SMEE barely has any meaningful market share while COMAC has none yet. Both are still in their infancy. They don't need more competitions.

If CETC has talent in lithography, I'd even want to see it combined with SMEE for now.

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which is extremely high. In contrast most lithography tools today are ~5x5 mm exposure area.