News on China's scientific and technological development.
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That's your basic problem, Sleepystudent, you think momentary blips are decades-long trends. To make matters worse, the "blips" aren't even real.
Yes, the US used to lead in all citations. Then it led in the papers with the highest 50% of citations. Now it's down to the <1% highest cited papers. The US is on an island and the sea levels are rising higher and higher.
You don't get to play the "relevant" game. You're here against the rules, this isn't a back and forth. I've already reported your posts for flamebaiting and I encourage other members to do the same.
@ODEPDE
A decline in labor force is indeed a threat to China. That's a fact.
BUT, nuance
1. Labor force decline will hit if China keeps relying on the industries it used to rely during the 1990s and 2000s.
2. The demographic impact will be felt sharply by 2040 50 ( if china keeps on relying on the traditional industries).
3. SK,TW,JP all have population declines far severe than China. One may argue that they ( SK ) managed to break into high income bracket in the nick of time but certain Chinese provinces have also managed to acquire high (above middle income) GDP and per capita incomes. That means Chinese systems (whatever it be labelled) is capable of doing what "democratic" countries do. The unique challenge to China (CCP) is in spreading the development and progress to all regions.
3. Chinese fertility rates are only minutely trailing US numbers till 2019. The wonderweapon US supporters tout is immigration. China isn't historically very immigrant friendly.
4. China is trying to climb up the value chain and tap into robotics and automation. Surely, it can alleviate some pain related to the slowly unfurling labor shortage. China can and is picking up some lessons from Northern Europe, Japan and South Korea who have faced this issue since long.
Netherlands has automated ports in Rotterdam. Shanghai was quick to outdo it.
A decline in labor force is indeed a threat to China. That's a fact.
BUT, nuance
1. Labor force decline will hit if China keeps relying on the industries it used to rely during the 1990s and 2000s.
2. The demographic impact will be felt sharply by 2040 50 ( if china keeps on relying on the traditional industries).
3. SK,TW,JP all have population declines far severe than China. One may argue that they ( SK ) managed to break into high income bracket in the nick of time but certain Chinese provinces have also managed to acquire high (above middle income) GDP and per capita incomes. That means Chinese systems (whatever it be labelled) is capable of doing what "democratic" countries do. The unique challenge to China (CCP) is in spreading the development and progress to all regions.
3. Chinese fertility rates are only minutely trailing US numbers till 2019. The wonderweapon US supporters tout is immigration. China isn't historically very immigrant friendly.
4. China is trying to climb up the value chain and tap into robotics and automation. Surely, it can alleviate some pain related to the slowly unfurling labor shortage. China can and is picking up some lessons from Northern Europe, Japan and South Korea who have faced this issue since long.
Netherlands has automated ports in Rotterdam. Shanghai was quick to outdo it.
I believe China is betting pretty big on automation and it will also succeed (like for warehouses, agriculture, service etc. what's more there's like already working examples of automation in what I just mentioned).
He just got banned lol
Our mods are super efficient with dealing with these trolls. How long until we get his next alt-account magically appearing again, 1 week maybe?
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He's gone and the thread is derailed already, so I'll put in a last 2¢. All you said is true, but that falls under mitigation strategies. That assumes the problem is given and tries to work around it - but there's no reason to assume the problem is given. Birth rates are mutable, and the Chinese government has the capacity to influence them greatly if it chooses to exercise it and does so intelligently. The policies to really solve the problem can be grouped under the title "Affirmative Action for the Two Child Family."
To take one example, China might institute educational incentives that cost it nothing like bonus points on the gaokao or a quota in high-ranked schools for students with a sibling. Overnight, that would change the incentive structure for Chinese parents - no one would spend a fortune educating a single child when their peers could show up and get a guaranteed 10 out of 100 points just for having a sibling.
Beyond the purely economic incentives/disincentives, there's the wide and unexplored arena of psychology. Having a child is a deeply emotional decision, and like such decisions it's very susceptible to psychological manipulation. I'd like to see Chinese governments approaching advertising companies with a simple brief: Sell pregnancy to Chinese women like Madison Avenue sold cigarettes to American women. There's also social media where the government can compel the Tencents and Alibabas to supress personalities that encourage anti-natal lifestyles and philosophies and boost personalities that encourage pro-natal worldviews.
Ex Euro Parl president everybody
P.S. Zhao Lijian should praise Borrell for his honesty
P.S. Zhao Lijian should praise Borrell for his honesty
China should give Venezuela's Maduro a call
That begs the question
Where do Japan and Korea fit into this equation?
Are they expected just to follow whatever the US/EU decide?