Total Factor Productivity, it's a fairly common abbreviationTFP?
Hello jai hind. Didn't take that long, did it?
Total Factor Productivity, it's a fairly common abbreviation
National accounting is "silly as fuck"?For some reasons, jai hind crowd sure loves that shit, huh? You must have loved how it rolls off your tongue.
Silly as fuck, smh.
Well, no, but really, yes. It may be a concept that has some merit when used properly by trained economists, but the pop versions are just empty rhetorical devices used to advance agendas.National accounting is "silly as fuck"?
No we don't agree. Your premise is that China needs to attract foreign talent, as a general statement. I said that maybe in niche roles, but in general, roles in China will fall into 2 categories: education/skill intensive and labor intensive. The former has security concerns and the latter can easily be filled be local Chinese people who need jobs. Your example, it only works if China is in need of low level toaster engineers and needs to divert aeronautical engineers to make toasters. But actually, China graduates almost more STEM majors than it can use and many find it challenging to find a satisfactory job. In this situation, foreigners just add to the burden.Engineering. I think we are in agreement here though. You still have security controls and deemed exports but even if its just labor, you still have allocative effects. Does a thermal engineer at a toaster company hold any national security relevant information? Obviously not but by them being their, you clear a spot for the limited amount of Chinese engineers to fill aerospace spots.
From your paper:
For those non-sensitive medium-low tier roles, China can easily call on its legions of fresh grads who need jobs.For most engineering work, national identity doesn't matter outside of getting the work done. Migrants from the US should be acceptable except for on technologies related to export controls.
The paper you cited says they are making a major impact transforming local businesses and infusing cutting edge ideas.It's fairly easily proxied just through TFP growth at around ~1% p.a. in the United States. Is capital formation of a few thousand returning migrants going to lead to that much TFP growth? Doubtful.
Well, at the higher level, we need Chinese because we need to trust them and at these levels, we need Chinese because those Chinese grads need work. China has a surplus, not a deficit of people who can fill this role.The tail-end people matter but yes, most engineering is monkeys throwing tried parameters at the wall and seeing what fits. It's why start-ups are galore in Silicon Valley.
I don't know which force is primary; probably Western nations spilling their guts in China trying to earn money is a big factor too, but forces of convergence wrought by sea turtles in high tech industries returning to China is doubtlessly something that Washington wants to impede.Agreed, that is known as economic convergence but diaspora returnees are nowhere near the primary mechanisms of convergence.
Most (86%) students and people who go to the US for education return. Those other people you mention have very low end labor jobs in China and really make no impact. On the other hand, for this Chinese labor deficit that the US can take up, it must pay with a knowledge and education deficit back to China. And in the modern world, we all know that knowledge/education is the transforming factor, not grunt work. So it's not symmetric and it favors China.Most Chinese migrants stay in the United States so even there, the gains are not symmetric.
LOL Don't make me dig up a ton of articles about the US nabbing some Chinese fella at the airport with some protected info/data. You don't need me to do that, right? You know how pointless your 3 cases claim is, right?LOL, the DOJ China Initiative could only bring a hot total of 3 espionage cases with the entire DOJ NSD working on it.
Yeah, that weaselly sentence is a no cheddar. Like I said, in most cases, the position is either too sensitive to entrust a foreigner or too simple to require a foreigner. There could be niche examples, but the general picture is NOT that China needs to attract foreign talent migration en masse as you suggest.There are productivity and competition benefits as well as the fiscal/demographic benefits of immigration, even outside of the technology sectors.
100%-86%=14%. That's the second time on this one number. Can't read an article, can't do math. There's very little left for you to demonstrate competence on.Agreed, I never said China needs to be 16% foreign born.
I never said "need". My premise is that attracting foreign talent is beneficial for China and that attracting immigration is a policy that should be pursued.No we don't agree. Your premise is that China needs to attract foreign talent, as a general statement.
Stop confusing technical level as being one-to-one with difficulty. We know that there's a talent mismatch in China given the insanely high wages that many engineers in China earn. There's a clear allocative inefficiency and adding more immigrants would help solve visible labor shortages in specific sectors. Not to mention that increasing migration and technology adaption increases aggregate supply and from there, that increases employment. Increasing supply-side factors in high-tech industries has significant employment multipliers for local communities, including in nontech sectors. Foreigners, depending on sector can either help or hurt. If the foreigners are contributing tech, in a pure macro sense, they are benefiting.I said that maybe in niche roles, but in general, roles in China will fall into 2 categories: education/skill intensive and labor intensive. The former has security concerns and the latter can easily be filled be local Chinese people who need jobs. Your example, it only works if China is in need of low level toaster engineers and needs to divert aeronautical engineers to make toasters. But actually, China graduates almost more STEM majors than it can use and many find it challenging to find a satisfactory job. In this situation, foreigners just add to the burden.
You read the rest of the paper. It's a bunch of quantifications about "oh wait, maybe it's not that large" where it mentions effect sizes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That's...not large.From your paper:
"This paper argues that the same individuals who left their home countries for better lifestyles abroad are now reversing the brain drain, transforming it into "brain circulation" as they return home to establish business relationships or to start new companies while maintaining their social and professional ties to the United States. When foreign-educated venture capitalists invest in their home countries, they transfer first-hand knowledge of the financial institutions of the new economy to peripheral regions. These individuals, often among the earliest returnees, also typically serve as advisers to domestic policymakers who are anxious to promote technology growth. As experienced engineers and managers return home, either temporarily or permanently, they bring the worldviews and identities that grow out of their shared professional and educational experiences. These cross-regional technical communities have the potential to j ump-start local entrepreneurship, and they succeed over the long term to the extent that they build alliances with technical professionals, businesses, and policymakers in their home countries."
"For both, brain circulation with an overseas community in Silicon Valley has been an important factor in attracting foreign investment."
"The circulation of world-class engineering and entrepreneurial talent between the United States, Taiwan, and China is altering the economic trajectories of all three."
You just cited a paper that says exactly what I'm saying and opposite of what you're saying. How do you expect people to take you seriously when you can't even read a paper?
Again, there's a clear mismatch when some salaries for freshly-minted graduates are multiples times higher than the median wage and you also have frictional unemployment. This suggests allocation and supply-side issues, not demand-side/labor market side and thus immigration would be beneficial. And a clear market signal that there are talent shortages in China? Chinese corporates have substantial foreign R&D operations and Chinese SMEs have talent attraction problems.For those non-sensitive medium-low tier roles, China can easily call on its legions of fresh grads who need jobs.
There wasn't much migration to China from 1978-201X and the value of FDI itself is also not even statistically strong. It's beneficial for sure but the magnitude isn't well known. If in-migration was in fact bad, why would Washington want to impede migrant flow to China? Shouldn't Washington be celebrating for all the dis-employment effects and national security risks? Oh wait, it isn't because migration is good.Well, at the higher level, we need Chinese because we need to trust them and at these levels, we need Chinese because those Chinese grads need work. China has a surplus, not a deficit of people who can fill this role.
I don't know which force is primary; probably Western nations spilling their guts in China trying to earn money is a big factor too, but forces of convergence wrought by sea turtles in high tech industries returning to China is doubtlessly something that Washington wants to impede.
Meh, no. All the information they learn in the US, they could learn back in China. You still have ~100K (600K total Chinese students) students that end up staying in foreign countries, most of which stay and work in a said foreign country. So yeah, the flows benefit the student's host country. You get market services that can also be received in China (for cash) and the receiving country either keeps the cash and/or the cash and the talent.Most (86%) students and people who go to the US for education return. Those other people you mention have very low end labor jobs in China and really make no impact. On the other hand, for this Chinese labor deficit that the US can take up, it must pay with a knowledge and education deficit back to China. And in the modern world, we all know that knowledge/education is the transforming factor, not grunt work. So it's not symmetric and it favors China.
Actually, no. The DOJ was absolutely insane about the China Initiative and they brought every case to trial they thought they could win. They got a hot total of 3 cases in a year. How much technology are 3 people going to get? The 4th amendment functionally doesn't apply at national airports, ofc they are going to try as hard as they can get to find something which is even more remarkable. Even with the 4th amendment functionally waived, the DOJ could only get a hot total of 3 cases they thought they could litigate. Wow. Even cops that follow Terry can get more than 3 gun cases a day.LOL Don't make me dig up a ton of articles about the US nabbing some Chinese fella at the airport with some protected info/data. You don't need me to do that, right? You know how pointless your 3 cases claim is, right?
Okay? The US & Europe is already at the technological frontier and thus it's not particularly relevant. Not to mention that the student flow of OSINT isn't comparable to trade secrets. And in any case, China isn't at the tech frontier in most areas and even if China was a net migration recipient, it would naturally be from other EMs that aren't at the frontier, and developing Africa or Indonesia is beneficial to China.LOL Do you know Qian Xuesen? He studied in the US.
Correct, en masse is ridiculous. Something like 100K foreign tech visas a year? That's reasonableYeah, that weaselly sentence is a no cheddar. Like I said, in most cases, the position is either too sensitive to entrust a foreigner or too simple to require a foreigner. There could be niche examples, but the general picture is NOT that China needs to attract foreign talent migration en masse as you suggest.
Never said it was necessary. I said it was beneficial. It has demographic benefits, it has macroeconomic through allocation and competition benefits, it has benefits for tech developmentPoint is, you said the China needs to attract foreign talent as a general driving force and you cannot substantiate it.
I claimed brain circulation is negligible and the rest of the article ends up quantifying that it is in fact, small. I said brain drain is favorable to the United States. You haven't shown anything that falsifies the point. There's plenty of research on foreigners starting businesses in the United States, having higher college attainment rates, etc. Immigration for example, keeps the US workforce growing as a simple mechanical measure and you have the metrics where immigration contributes an additional ~0.3% to growth p.a.You also claimed that brain circulation is both negligible and asymmetrical in favor to the US; your own source proves that it is a very substantial transforming force and I showed that it is asymmetrical in favor of China instead.
That's semantics. It's not different.I never said "need". My premise is that attracting foreign talent is beneficial for China and that attracting immigration is a policy that should be pursued.
There is no large category for foreigners to fill. They can benefit but only in niche roles, such as getting an expert at this to bring up a company's efforts in one area. They certainly don't go make toasters and other household appliances to free up Chinese talent for aerospace as you suggested. They are put in niche specialty roles in parallel with preparing a Chinese guy to take over his role at the end of his contract. He's not a migrant or an immigrant to China; he's contracted to do a job, get paid, and leave.Stop confusing technical level as being one-to-one with difficulty. We know that there's a talent mismatch in China given the insanely high wages that many engineers in China earn. There's a clear allocative inefficiency and adding more immigrants would help solve visible labor shortages in specific sectors. Not to mention that increasing migration and technology adaption increases aggregate supply and from there, that increases employment. Increasing supply-side factors in high-tech industries has significant employment multipliers for local communities, including in nontech sectors. Foreigners, depending on sector can either help or hurt. If the foreigners are contributing tech, in a pure macro sense, they are benefiting.
Cite what you want me to read.You read the rest of the paper. It's a bunch of quantifications about "oh wait, maybe it's not that large" where it mentions effect sizes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That's...not large.
Of course some fresh grads will get paid more than the median wage; kids from GA Tech, Cal Tech, MIT, all come out of college with huge salaries. More skilled people get more pay; it doesn't mean anything in terms of immigration. And like I said, niche roles can be temporarily filled with foreign contractors but they are not immigrants.Again, there's a clear mismatch when some salaries for freshly-minted graduates are multiples times higher than the median wage and you also have frictional unemployment. This suggests allocation and supply-side issues, not demand-side/labor market side and thus immigration would be beneficial. And a clear market signal that there are talent shortages in China? Chinese corporates have substantial foreign R&D operations and Chinese SMEs have talent attraction problems.
Washington wants to stop the immigration of highly skilled sea turtles back to China for obvious reasons. Non-Chinese going to China for these roles are trusted by no one; China doesn't trust them but will contract them to complete a job while watching them and Washington doesn't trust them either because they could give everything they've got to China.There wasn't much migration to China from 1978-201X and the value of FDI itself is also not even statistically strong. It's beneficial for sure but the magnitude isn't well known. If in-migration was in fact bad, why would Washington want to impede migrant flow to China? Shouldn't Washington be celebrating for all the dis-employment effects and national security risks? Oh wait, it isn't because migration is good.
That's definitely not true; for example, in my field of biological sciences, each lab has its own specialty, not to mention each country. What you learn in this lab is unique and you could not learn it from most other labs even studying the same thing in the same country much less in a different country. What you said here is just ignorance with a stubborn imagination.Meh, no. All the information they learn in the US, they could learn back in China.
Yeah, but the 500K who go home go home with critical information to boost Chinese tech while those 100K stay in their host countries to use what they learned in that host country to work. The effect is much smaller for the host country. Everyone benefits but in a zero sum game, China benefits.You still have ~100K (600K total Chinese students) students that end up staying in foreign countries, most of which stay and work in a said foreign country. So yeah, the flows benefit the student's host country.