New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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9000 hydrogen FCEVs got signed.

BTW, Audi is going with Huawei on autonomous driving for China market. BYD is going with Huawei on Bao 8 SUV. Tesla FSD is at least months away from landing in China. I don't see alternatives for B B T to catch up with autonomous driving without some sort of alliance with Huawei.
keep in mind that while Huawei has the best ADAS, there are a lot of other really good ones. Momenta's mapless NOA has received a lot of good reviews. That's who BYD and IM Motors have been working with.

BYD brought in Huawei as an ADAS supplier because it needs competition to push forward its own ADAS team.

Whether Audi uses Huawei remains to be seen, but Western automakers have numerous options on who they can work with.
 

Facm337

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BYD does not have anything close to monopoly. It's quite uncompetitive vs Li Auto & Huawei in the 300k+ market.
That's true. But BYD has already entered and is expanding in the 300k+ market with their premium/luxury brands (eg Denza/FCB), while I don't see Li Auto or Huawei entering the segment that BYD is strongest in (sub 200k) anytime soon. Perhaps that's never been their plan from the start, but my main point is
I'm wondering if BYD will be the only automaker that has models in every single segment both BEV and PHEV across all price ranges, and if that is the case I can see them being very dominant, perhaps getting close to 50%+ market share. Whether that's good or bad in the long term I don't know.

Apart from BYD I think Geely is the only one that's starting to have models in a broad range of segments eg Galaxy/Geometry at the lower end and Zeekr/Lynk&Co/Volvo/Polestar at the higher end with both BEV and PHEVs.

Correct me if I'm wrong but AFAIK everyone else is operating in one or a few segments only. But hopefully that will change soon.
 
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tphuang

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That's true. But BYD has already entered and is expanding in the 300k+ market with their premium/luxury brands (eg Denza/FCB), while I don't see Li Auto or Huawei entering the segment that BYD is strongest in (sub 200k) anytime soon. Perhaps that's never been their plan from the start, but my main point is
I'm wondering if BYD will be the only automaker that has models in every single segment both BEV and PHEV across all price ranges, and if that is the case I can see them being very dominant, perhaps getting close to 50%+ market share. Whether that's good or bad in the long term I don't know.

Apart from BYD I think Geely is the only one that's starting to have models in a broad range of segments eg Galaxy/Geometry at the lower end and Zeekr/Lynk&Co/Volvo/Polestar at the higher end with both BEV and PHEVs.

Correct me if I'm wrong but AFAIK everyone else is operating in one or a few segments only. But hopefully that will change soon.
well, they are not going to get to 50% market share. Even if they end up with 35%, it'd be pretty good. Right now, they are at 37-38% in NEV share. It will be pretty hard for them to maintain that.
 

tphuang

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4Runner

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Grok: "how is tesla fsd competing against huawei ads 3.0"
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Huawei's ADS 3.0 represent two of the most advanced autonomous driving systems currently in development, each with unique approaches and technological focuses:

  • Technological Approach:
    • Tesla FSD: Tesla's approach is primarily vision-based, relying heavily on cameras (with up to 8 cameras in newer models) and minimalistic hardware, aiming for simplicity and cost-effectiveness. Tesla's strategy involves leveraging vast amounts of real-world data collected from its fleet to train its neural networks, aiming for an end-to-end learning model where the system learns to drive from raw sensor data to control signals without explicit programming for every scenario.
    • Huawei ADS 3.0: Huawei's system, on the other hand, incorporates a more traditional multi-sensor fusion approach, including LiDAR, radar, and cameras. This method aims to provide a more robust sensory input for better environmental understanding, especially in complex scenarios where vision alone might be insufficient. ADS 3.0 focuses on what's described as a "GOD network" for multi-sensor fusion, enhancing its capability to recognize and react to a broader range of obstacles and scenarios.
  • Market and Development Strategy:
    • Tesla: Tesla has been pushing towards achieving full autonomy through iterative software updates, with a significant emphasis on real-world data collection and processing. Elon Musk has expressed ambitions for Tesla's FSD to be a pioneer in achieving true Level 5 autonomy, where no human intervention is required. Tesla's approach also includes developing its own AI hardware (like the Dojo supercomputer) to accelerate this process.
    • Huawei: Huawei's strategy involves not only developing the ADS technology but also integrating it into a broader ecosystem of smart vehicle solutions. Huawei's approach might be seen as more conservative in terms of technology readiness for full autonomy but is arguably more comprehensive in terms of immediate practical applications, offering advanced driver assistance systems that are currently operational in various vehicles in China.
  • Competitive Edge:
    • Tesla's Edge: Tesla's edge lies in its massive fleet acting as a real-time data collection network, potentially giving it a lead in software learning and adaptation. The simplicity of its hardware design also aims at reducing costs, which could be crucial in scaling autonomous driving technology.
    • Huawei's Edge: Huawei's ADS 3.0 might have an edge in scenarios where environmental perception beyond vision is crucial, thanks to its multi-sensor approach. This could be particularly beneficial in complex urban environments or adverse weather conditions where cameras might struggle. Additionally, Huawei's integration into the broader automotive ecosystem in China, including partnerships and technology licensing, positions it well within the local market.
  • Current Sentiment and Perception:
    • Based on discussions and sentiments from platforms like X, there's a mix of skepticism and admiration for both technologies. Some users and analysts believe Tesla's vision-only approach might face limitations in achieving full autonomy due to its reliance on visual data. Conversely, Huawei's system, while praised for its technological breadth, is sometimes critiqued for not yet matching Tesla's software sophistication in real-world driving scenarios.
Pretty good answer. Better than I could articulate.

There are two recent developments that reenforce my view on NEV landscape in general and autonomous driving in particular.

One is an interview of Professor Zhu from Tong Ji University on state of NEV and autonomous driving. For reference, "
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". He basically echoed my perception that FSD is struggling to hit the road in China, therefore is giving more time to HW ADS 3.0 dominance. In essence and on road, there is really no other viable competitive solution against FSD or ADS 3.0 (full or vision-only).

The other is "rumor" from Beijing that HW people are the main technical contributor on China national autonomous drive regulation. In other words, on NEV autonomous driving, HW is a player and a referee at the same time.

Put those two in the context of recent announcements on BYD Bao 8 with ADS 3.0 and Audi going with HW on autonomous driving in China. Consolidation in China NEV business is getting closer and reshuffling of state-owned and private-owned auto assets is going to be very interesting in the next 2 years.
 

supercat

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BYD is having a hiring spree at its industrial zone in the Great Bay Area.

News from the Chengdu auto show: BYD's Xia MPV, which is an EREV, starts at $42,340, while the Seal 06GT, which is a battery EV, starts at $21,150.

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4Runner

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怎么理解自动驾驶端到端
How to understand end-to-end autonomous driving
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This is one of the best vids on end-to-end autonomous driving. The author is pro.
 

BlackWindMnt

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BYD is having a hiring spree at its industrial zone in the Great Bay Area.

News from the Chengdu auto show: BYD's Xia MPV, which is an EREV, starts at $42,340, while the Seal 06GT, which is a battery EV, starts at $21,150.

ucV2PDy.jpg

yKPECXH.jpg

nflEnlc.jpg

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gyya5y9.png

3GiM9S7.png

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Dam that Byd seal-06-gt is such a good looking car, really wondering if it will ever be available in the EU at a sub $35k price mark.
 
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