New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

4Runner

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Dimension is 5160/1987/1486mm,wheelbase 3050mm
It's a little larger than 56E, but it's smaller than A8 & 7 series.

And keep in mind that Denza is coming out with Z9GT and then Z9. Both will be priced below this. So, the question is how much can you price this if you are Huawei? Remember, this is in China. BMW and Audi are pricing A6 and BMW 5 Series below what it's priced in the US. In fact, significantly so. A6 is probably under 300k at this point. 5 series is probably under 350k.
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A6 3.0T import should be all Quattro around RMB500K. The comparable E or 5i import V6/V8 should be in the same pricing range. So I thought the final S9 pricing of 400K Max and 450K Ultra has the import 56E V6/V8 in minds. As I am quite familiar with 56E US models, I am fairly confident S9 is superior to 56E in most aspects if not all. The only factor is branding (image), as I stated in my original post. In terms of car on apple-to-apple comparison, I am highly confident that S9 is superior hands-down. To use my own example, when I was shopping A6 3.0T vs 5i 4.0 vs Lexus G450 at the time, it was a quick decision on A6 3.0T, as I am never a Mercedes person. Similar situation would apply to prospective buyers of S9 in China in the coming years. We shall see. I predict 8K units per month starting from next year.
 

supersnoop

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If your vehicle was not manufactured for sale in the U.S., it’s unlikely that it will be certified for use in Canada. Most vehicles manufactured for sale in countries other than the United States cannot be imported into Canada because they do not comply with the Motor Vehicle Safety Act requirements.

A car can be certified to be sold in Canada on its own without being certified in the US. For example, a (long) while ago GM was rebadging Daewoo Lacettis (made in SK) as Chevy Optra for sale in Canada, but not the US

Canada and the US has almost exactly the same safety standards for cars to easily facilitate the manufacturing and sale of cars between each other, but that doesn't mean that a car HAS to be sold in both countries.

lol, except Trump already said he'd welcome Chinese automakers to build factories in America.

Now, I must say that BYD will not enter US PV market anytime soon.

Keep in mind that Canada is not US. BYD is already in the rest of 5-eye nations as well as Japan and India.

As for your commentary about Canadian political system, you are quite off. And I'd suggest that you not go off topic.

You are right that BYD's most likely bet to enter the Canadian market would be through Mexico. As long as they can meet the USMCA parts value quotas, it cannot be tariffed, at least not without making special laws that can be challenged in court.

That being said, I don't often agree with henrik, but in this case the government was clearly following Biden's lead. All the language closely mirrors the US government's "policy of overproduction, blah blah blah".

This is just retarded. Most of Canada's population is in the East. That area has huge hydropower and nuclear generation thus plenty of cheap electricity. So Canada much like Norway or Sweden would hugely benefit economically from switching to EVs. They should in fact be embracing EV production including the construction of Chinese EV factories in Canada. That they do not just shows how myopic and politically captured by the US government the Canadian government is.

Hydropower is so plentiful in the East (and BC) that Electricity is literally synonymous with electricity. Most of the provincial electrical utilities are called XX-Hydro (Hydro-Quebec, Ontario Hydro, etc.). Ontario actually has one of the largest nuclear power plants in the world (Bruce Power), and it is half mothballed due to low demand. All coal plants were shut down years ago.

That being said, the biggest hurdles for Chinese EV factories in Canada would be the business case itself. Before building the plant itself, you would need stores (and sales) first. The average assembly plant in Canada is outputting about 100K cars per 1000 workers and most production goes to the USA. Without US sales, there is no point in trying to open a plant in Canada.

There are two options in the current environment.
Mexican Option (as chosen by BYD)
South Korean Option (as chosen by Geely, NA destined Polestar production will be moving to SK to avoid tariffs, both US and Canada have a FTA with ROK)
 

tphuang

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View attachment 133750
A6 3.0T import should be all Quattro around RMB500K. The comparable E or 5i import V6/V8 should be in the same pricing range. So I thought the final S9 pricing of 400K Max and 450K Ultra has the import 56E V6/V8 in minds. As I am quite familiar with 56E US models, I am fairly confident S9 is superior to 56E in most aspects if not all. The only factor is branding (image), as I stated in my original post. In terms of car on apple-to-apple comparison, I am highly confident that S9 is superior hands-down. To use my own example, when I was shopping A6 3.0T vs 5i 4.0 vs Lexus G450 at the time, it was a quick decision on A6 3.0T, as I am never a Mercedes person. Similar situation would apply to prospective buyers of S9 in China in the coming years. We shall see. I predict 8K units per month starting from next year.
I don’t know how many imported a6 gets sold. But I know the ones produced domestically are discounted heavily. That’s been the issue with BMW and Audi recently. They are killing their own dealers through heavy discounting. They are having to stop that now.

so when you compare s9 to them, you have to compare to the domestically produced versions.

and more importantly, s9 will be competing against ET7 and Denza Z9 that will come out. Just because it is priced well vs BBA, doesn’t mean it’s priced well va domestic competition. More importantly, > 300k rmb bev market in China is not big. > 400k is really small. S9 will not be a big seller until hybrid version comes out. That’s still a few months away.
 

4Runner

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I don’t know how many imported a6 gets sold. But I know the ones produced domestically are discounted heavily. That’s been the issue with BMW and Audi recently. They are killing their own dealers through heavy discounting. They are having to stop that now.

so when you compare s9 to them, you have to compare to the domestically produced versions.

and more importantly, s9 will be competing against ET7 and Denza Z9 that will come out. Just because it is priced well vs BBA, doesn’t mean it’s priced well va domestic competition. More importantly, > 300k rmb bev market in China is not big. > 400k is really small. S9 will not be a big seller until hybrid version comes out. That’s still a few months away.
That is true. At the current stage, I would also choose hybrid over pure electric for all practical reasons, even if I had a house charger. Some early forecasts are tilted toward Beijing and Shanghai. The reason I did not include domestic NEV competitors is primarily intelligent driving. ADS 3.0 Pro is very close to L3 already and no legit domestic competitors nearby. By the time FSD arrives in China, ADS 3.0 Pro would have evolved into true L3. And ADS 3.0 vision only is already better than available domestic NEV competitors. I have high hope for BYD. Nio and Li will eventually catch up. We shall see ...
 

tphuang

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That is true. At the current stage, I would also choose hybrid over pure electric for all practical reasons, even if I had a house charger. Some early forecasts are tilted toward Beijing and Shanghai. The reason I did not include domestic NEV competitors is primarily intelligent driving. ADS 3.0 Pro is very close to L3 already and no legit domestic competitors nearby. By the time FSD arrives in China, ADS 3.0 Pro would have evolved into true L3. And ADS 3.0 vision only is already better than available domestic NEV competitors. I have high hope for BYD. Nio and Li will eventually catch up. We shall see ...
there are plenty of domestic competitors to ADS 3.0 Pro. In fact, the difference is basically a few months between the leader (Huawei) and middle of the pack among domestic competition. It's actually unclear when anyone can truly move to L3. That's a matter of regulation and law, not technology.

by the way, here is a video of Denza N7's city NOA from a month ago.
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I'm not seeing a huge gap here with Huawei.

here is Denza N7's mapless highway NOA (which doesn't use Lidar) from recently
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Again, seems pretty good to me.

Li, NIO and XPeng all have pretty good stuff. Don't underestimate domestic competition. FSD is pretty overrated.
 

supercat

Major
Chinese EV battery makers' market share expanded 3.2% globally in H1 2024.
Chinese electric car battery makers’ share of the world’s market expanded 3.2 percentage points in the first six months from the same period last year, as they continue to dominate global sales, according to the latest data.

The six biggest Chinese firms by shipments accounted for 64.9 percent of the global market in the six months ended June 30, according to a report released by South Korean market research firm SNE Research today.
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A GM executive talks about the rapid rise of China's auto industry:
For most of this century, foreign brands totally dominated China’s car market. Every year, they sold millions of cars and earned billions in profits.

Chinese consumers swarmed into Buick, Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota showrooms nationwide, happy to pay cash for the prestige of owning a brand that wasn’t Chinese.

“China is our forever profit machine,” my colleagues at GM liked to humble-brag a decade ago, back when I ran GM’s Indonesia operations. “We can bank on an easy $2 billion dividend every year.”

Now, suddenly, that golden era is over.

Sales and profits in the People’s Republic are vanishing. And boards in Detroit, Wolfsburg and Tokyo are stunned by the speed and intensity of the changes.

Panic in Detroit - And Everywhere Else
Ford has lost more than $5 billion in China since 2020. Sales are down 70% from their peak. “We’ve never seen competition like this before,” says CEO Jim Farley.

GM is hurting, too. The former poster child for sunny US-China relations, GM has lost more than $200 million so far this year alone. That marks the first time in two decades that GM’s China operations have printed red ink.

Mary Barra says the situation in China is “unsustainable.”

Stellantis already knows the bitter taste of capitulation. Jeep was forced to beat an ignominious retreat from the China market in 2023 after its joint venture went bankrupt.

Detroit is not alone. Almost every non-Chinese brand – German, Korean, Japanese and French – is feeling shell-shocked as they watch their market shares disappear.
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Geely's Galaxy E5 global SUV starts below $16,000.
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