New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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This keeps getting more interesting
Tesla has hard to selling out its production in Shanghai so it lowers prices. After cutting prices, it still has a hard time, so it tries to export more in Germany by cutting prices there. Now, it's thinking of selling the surplus production back to North America. I find it unlikely that they will be able to do so in America due to political pressure, but selling to Canada/Mexico should be no problem.

The writing is on the wall as BYD continues to take commanding position in this medium market segment. BYD currently is just making life hard for everyone. Model 3 is more expensive than Seal, but Seal is a better car. Once Sea Lion comes out, Model Y will be in trouble. Similarly for higher end models like NIO ET5 and BBA cars, future Denza SUV/Sedan models will likely chip away at their profitability too.

Remember this from a while back.
之前说的上海特斯拉效应已经成为行业共识了,这次车fans要说从8月开始越来越明显的另一个效应:

比亚迪标杆效应。

除了比亚迪,现在所有10~25万区间新能源车型,不管什么品牌,不管新车上市后热度有多高,只要前期交付量没上来,进店量会快速下滑到冰点,进店和订单量集体停滞。这个现象已经出现在包括长城、长安、吉利、埃安自主品牌身上。

意味着跟传统燃油车时代大众两田的标杆车型相对分散不同,现在新能源10~25万区间比亚迪一家独大,标杆效应越来越极端了。如果车型无法在销量上贴近,产品定位上拉开距离,终端客户会对这个品牌快速丧失信心,重新选择比亚迪。

也就意味着接下来所有新车型如果无法在上市后短期快速上量,除非价格优惠和品宣投入巨大代价,不然很快就会被比亚迪快速挤压出市场
Since Tesla price cut, it's been the death of NEVs in the 100 to 250k RMB range. BYD sucks the air out of the entire market. That's why it was such an important thing For BYD to raise production so quickly ahead of everyone else. Once you become the default choice, competition will have to do so much better just to get a piece of pie. Maybe, Huawei fanboys will always be buying Huawei branded cars. But for other automakers like ChangAn, Geely, Great Wall, XPeng, Li Auto and such, having a dominant player in the market is a really bad thing for them.

A year ago, BYD still had not a great reputation for car quality, but that is no longer a concern. The fact that they are exporting so many cars in Western countries is also a large boost for them domestically. So there is not a lot of breathing room left for everyone else.
 

caudaceus

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It seems that some American commentators finally overcame their hubris and acknowledged the unequivocal rise of China's auto industry.

Now Elon Musk wants to export made-in-China Tesla to the U.S. But he was one of those who lobbied the Trump regime to raise tariff on Chinese cars in 2018.
Live look of Chinese Tesla Engineers reviewing Fremont factory folks
 

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siegecrossbow

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There is no rumor on Chinese social media that Tesla will do further price cut. Remember that the first price cut triggered additional sales. It looks like that may have not generated enough sales increase, since they had to bring back the free insurance sales pitch. Tesla makes very high profit on its Shanghai Giga production. I would not be surprised if they cut even more to try to match BYD in China or in Europe. Also with the recent price cut, it sounds like there is some BYD Seal cars available in the standard range and high power version. LR is still all booked up.

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NIO continues to lose money and lower guidance on delivery numbers for Q4. Until they get the basics right, it's crazy that they keep on touting new brand or getting into phone business.

Back to BYD, the Zhengzhou production base is continuing to expand at rapid pace. There are 6 phases. The first one finishes in April and the next 5 phases finish construction throughout 2023. Zhengzhou is going to be a huge car plant when fully up and running.

BYD electric bus J6 has started autonomous driving testing in Japan.

E6 cabs are being used in Zimbabwe airport. Atto 3 demand is off the hook in Australia. There is demand now for over 3000 cars a month and they are only able to deliver 2000.

More positive reviews about BYD
Forbes talking about BYD/Wang Chunfu
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A great review here on all the BYD cars.
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Boy are they gonna be in for a surprise when realize that it’s not just cars.
 

AndrewS

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I highly respect Wang Chuan Fu for doing that, in his home province. Among all tier-2 provinces, Anhui is probably in the best position for manufacturing companies to expand or relocate. It is in the Yangtze River Delta and it is not nearly as expensive as Jiang Su or Ze Jiang. Like Huawei, BYD is building its coverage in all three advanced regions: Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei Triangle, which combined already rival the US in marketing senses. Chinese car brands are traditionally regional. If BYD builds into a true national brand like Huawei, BYD will be well on its way to become a top-5 global car brand.

Within 5 year's time, I reckon there is over a 80% probability that BYD will be the world's largest automaker.
 

henrik

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This keeps getting more interesting
Tesla has hard to selling out its production in Shanghai so it lowers prices. After cutting prices, it still has a hard time, so it tries to export more in Germany by cutting prices there. Now, it's thinking of selling the surplus production back to North America. I find it unlikely that they will be able to do so in America due to political pressure, but selling to Canada/Mexico should be no problem.

The writing is on the wall as BYD continues to take commanding position in this medium market segment. BYD currently is just making life hard for everyone. Model 3 is more expensive than Seal, but Seal is a better car. Once Sea Lion comes out, Model Y will be in trouble. Similarly for higher end models like NIO ET5 and BBA cars, future Denza SUV/Sedan models will likely chip away at their profitability too.

Remember this from a while back.

Since Tesla price cut, it's been the death of NEVs in the 100 to 250k RMB range. BYD sucks the air out of the entire market. That's why it was such an important thing For BYD to raise production so quickly ahead of everyone else. Once you become the default choice, competition will have to do so much better just to get a piece of pie. Maybe, Huawei fanboys will always be buying Huawei branded cars. But for other automakers like ChangAn, Geely, Great Wall, XPeng, Li Auto and such, having a dominant player in the market is a really bad thing for them.

A year ago, BYD still had not a great reputation for car quality, but that is no longer a concern. The fact that they are exporting so many cars in Western countries is also a large boost for them domestically. So there is not a lot of breathing room left for everyone else.

How do they make money from their Fremont or Berlin plants? Fremont has always been losing money for each additional car that they make. Shanghai has saved tesla from bankruptcy. Berlin is even worse due to inflation and lack of electricity. From elon musk's layoff actions at Twitter, it looks like he will hack off production at fremont and berlin. Another new plant n China would boost tesla profitability.
 

tonyget

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So it was Elon Musk himself who advocated for high tariff impose on Chinese vehicles back in 2018,how ironic

特斯拉在中国以相当于49344美元的价格出售Model Y,而美国的价格为65990美元。中国制造的汽车面临27.5%的美国关税,而轻型卡车面临25%的关税。
2018年,在特斯拉上海工厂运营之前,特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)曾要求时任总统唐纳德·特朗普提高从中国进口到美国的汽车的关税,以实现“公平的结果”,即双方都有同等和“同样温和”的关税。
特斯拉不是第一家向美国出口中国制造的汽车的美国汽车制造商。此前,通用汽车进口了别克Envision SUV,并申请豁免特朗普政府征收的25%美国关税,但未成功。
Tesla sells the Model Y in China for the equivalent of $49,344, compared to $65,990 in the U.S. Cars made in China face a 27.5 percent U.S. tariff, while light trucks face a 25 percent tariff.

In 2018, before Tesla's Shanghai factory opened, Tesla CEO Elon Musk asked then-President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on cars imported into the U.S. from China to achieve A "fair outcome", where both sides have equal and "equally modest" tariffs.

Tesla is not the first U.S. automaker to export Chinese-made vehicles to the U.S. Previously, GM imported the Buick Envision SUV and applied unsuccessfully for an exemption from the 25% U.S. tariff imposed by the Trump administration.
 

GodRektsNoobs

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So it was Elon Musk himself who advocated for high tariff impose on Chinese vehicles back in 2018,how ironic
I think Giga Berlin is a lost cause at this point. But I bet Musk is willing to give Fremont one last try with Chinese engineers and technicians from Giga Shanghai. If that fails, then the scenario above is likely. With the incoming recession in US Musk must do everything he can to lower cost of Teslas.
 

tphuang

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This has been going around Chinese social media the last couple of days
Another price cut is coming for Tesla. There is more demand for Tesla since first price cut, but people who have pre-order are not taking delivery because they are expecting more price cut. People have also been canceling their GAC Aion, XPeng and NIO pre-orders. With this price cut, Model 3 will be close to Seal in Pricing. I think this is the lowest they go.

Again, delivery gap due to people not taking their Tesla pre-orders for various reasons. Once you start cutting prices in a weak economy, people are going to wait and see where things settle before they commit the additional money.

Again, this is the reason why they are looking into exporting to North America.
 
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