New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

On BYD's EU expansion. They will announce 6 things on 28th (apparently)
1) goal of reducing earth's temperature by 1 degree
2) unveiling blade battery, DM 4.0 and E 3.0 technology platforms
3) Unveiling Dragon face & Ocean X design concept
4) Will announce Atto 3, Song+ DM-i, Han EV and Tang EV
5) automated production setup for blade battery
6) announce the pricing for different European market

In Asia, already have plans for more than 20 countries/regions
1) HK and Macau, Atto 3, Dolphin and Seal. + E6 deliveries. The first 500 order for Song+ EV has already been snapped up in HK
2) Singapore. E6 (Song max EV versIon) Atto 3, Seal and Dolphin. E6 has already started delivering. Atto 3 will start deliverying in second half of September
3) Thailand. One of BYD's most focused oversea market. Will launch Atto 3 in Oct 10. It will be followed by Han EV, Tang EV, Qin+ DM-i, Song+ DM-i and Dolphin. Will have 31 stores in 2022 and 60 to 70 store fronts by 2023. Plant to produce 150k cars and will export to ASEAN and European market
4) Japan. Will launch Atto 3, Dolphin and Seal in Jan 2023. Will have 100 store front by end of 2025
5) Cambodia. LHas been selling 300 cars a year since entrance in 2020. 2022 is a big expansion year for BYD in Cambodia. Will open more store front. Will also build electric charger in different places. Will be exporting Han EV, Tang EV, Song+ DM-i, Atto 3, E2
6) Uzebekistan - 2nd oversea factory which was signed on Aug 18th. Will launch NEVs here in Q4.
7) India - Have been delivering about 30 E6 a month in India since launching in Jan of this year. Will launch Atto 3 in Q4 and start selling in start of 2023
8) Israel - Atto 3 started delivery in September. Will also sell Dolphin and Seal here.
9) Other market include Malaysia, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Phillipines, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Mongolia.
The main export car types will be Atto 3 and Song+ DM-i.

Australia - Currently planning 3000 cars a month. Goal is to be in top 5 in Australia by 2023 (selling 70k cars)

NZ - Entered market on June 23rd. First Atto 3 delivered in Mid August. Will unveiled the same cars in NZ as in Australia, including Pickup, Dolphin and Seal.

Fiji - Will sell Atto 3 here with EVDirect

Quite a few Latin American countries also including Colombia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Bahama, DR.

Estimated to sell 50k+ Yuan+ EV a monnth next year (including domestic and oversea)
80k+ Song+ DM-i per month
30k+ Seal per month
50k+ Dolphin per month

By end of August, they've received over 100k ordres from international market. Looking to sell 20k a month internationally in 2023

mossen said:

China's NEV market suffers from the "Problem of Plenty".

There are simply too many great EV companies out there. When competition is so fierce, it means everyone has to cut prices to the bones. As a result, even while sales are skyrocketing, losses are widening.

Sooner or later there has to be a shakeout. I think BYD is in a great position but which companies will survive the shakeout behind them is yet to be seen. It's clear that most, if not all, of the innovation in the NEV space is now happening in China - but the companies who are doing it are paying a heavy price. Mounting losses can't be sustained forever. A few winners will have to be separated from the pack sooner rather than later.

Click to expand...

Right now share of NEVs in Chinese market is still growing. What you envisioned will eventually happen, but not in the near future. What will happen though in the next couple of years is that foreign automakers will gradually be squeezed out of the Chinese market, along with uncompetitive Chinese ones. After that part is complete, there will be a massive breakout of Chinese automakers into the international market. This is the same trend that occurred in every other industries that China dominates today.

GodRektsNoobs said:

Right now share of NEVs in Chinese market is still growing. What you envisioned will eventually happen, but not in the near future. What will happen though in the next couple of years is that foreign automakers will gradually be squeezed out of the Chinese market, along with uncompetitive Chinese ones. After that part is complete, there will be a massive breakout of Chinese automakers into the international market. This is the same trend that occurred in every other industries that China dominates today.

Click to expand...

Chinese NEV market share almost doubled in one year, from 22% in 2021 to over 40% in 2022 (August figures). China is just getting started, and it is already crushing everyone.

This guy visited the BYD headquarters in Shenzhen. Lots of stuffs on display there.

mossen said:

China's NEV market suffers from the "Problem of Plenty".

There are simply too many great EV companies out there. When competition is so fierce, it means everyone has to cut prices to the bones. As a result, even while sales are skyrocketing, losses are widening.

Sooner or later there has to be a shakeout. I think BYD is in a great position but which companies will survive the shakeout behind them is yet to be seen. It's clear that most, if not all, of the innovation in the NEV space is now happening in China - but the companies who are doing it are paying a heavy price. Mounting losses can't be sustained forever. A few winners will have to be separated from the pack sooner rather than later.

Click to expand...

Good, the competition is good for the customers. There is no place for EV makers in the future like Tesla to have 30% margins, the price must fall alongside with margins.

More updates. In first 8 months, BYD delivered 984k vehicles. They now have 800k orders on hand and expect to deliver 1.8 to 2 million this year. They expect to install 70 to 80 GWh in car this year and 80 to 95 GWh battery in total. In 2023, they expect to produce 300 GWh and install 200 GWh in cars. Looks like a signficant expansion in energy storage market

BYD remains very optimistic and focused on LFP batteries. There is no real shortage of lithium mines, but not enough development of those mines. It takes time to develop a mine -> hence current shortage.

Now, it's cover by UK media. Pendragon to bring BYD cars to UK

BYD looking to grab 10 to 15% of Indian market long term. Near term, the goal is to just first get 10k produced in Chennai per year and sell them locally.

CATL is looking to build a third factory in Europe. I feel like BYD will make an announcement soon also.

CATL is not only in cooperation with SAIC, Sinopec, and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) to build battery swap stations in China, they are also considering expanding their battery swap business overseas.

China’s CATL, a Tesla supplier, considers expanding battery swapping business overseas

• Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, or CATL, is evaluating whether to expand its battery swapping business to international markets, a senior executive told CNBC.
• The world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker launched its battery swapping program in China in January.
• CATL, the world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker, is a supplier to companies such as Tesla and Ford.

Click to expand...

CATL is also considering to build a third plant in Europe.

World’s Biggest EV Battery Maker Considers Third Plant in Europe​

• CATL nears start of production in Germany, plans for Hungary
• Shortage of natural gas a challenge for CATL production plans

Click to expand...

China's retail NEV penetration rate is projected to be 29.7% in September.

a couple of videos online from people that got their Atto 3 in New Zealand. Word of mouth is a great way to expand the reach of your product. People here are fairly happy with their Atto 3.

BYD will be locally assembling buses in Spain. I'm assuming this is part of their effort to pick up more orders from the region

Now, inside ev has an article on BYD unveiling eBus blade this week. I think this is a new push from BYD to gain shares in the European/North American market.

BYD battery box making in road in Germany with the wide spread solar panel deployment. The new LFP version of energy storage system should be in high demand next year. Makes sense why they are expecting so much battery sales in non vehicle installations.

Earlier today, I posted this news on Semiconductor thread
I think it is a big news in many ways. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first big order that a Chinese chipmaker has won from a foreign automaker for cars serving outside of the Chinese markets. It's a large order too. This is for over 2.5 million cars over the space of 4 years. We've talked about how China is cornering the European market in EV batteries. Now, it looks to me that they may be on their way to achieving something similar in auto chips. And, they are doing it stealthily because America is too focused on the leading edge chip market.

Initially, companies like Infineon and ST Microelectronics were the largest in the Chinese market. With the insane demand for NEVs in China, the wait time for power chip got too long. As a result of this, Chinese chipmakers have made major plans in fab expansion in the past couple of years. This link has some good charts on just how much they are expanding in IGBT market. With this, the domestic chipmakers become so good at this process that they also support oversea customers. And with the high energy prices that Infineon and ST are likely to face in the next year, it would be hard to not see Chinese chipmakers make even more in-road over the next couple of years. It has come just at the right time as NEV demand in China is skyrocketing.

According to this, IGBT market market is adding 60k wpm in 2022. Chinese chip makers account for 2/3 of that and CRRC expects to add 10k. This link below has a chart (which takes too much space, so I'm not attaching it here) which shows IGBT capacity for Chinese players
CRRC will be producing 30k 8-inch wpm by end of this year and that's suppose to be enough for 1.1 million IGBT modules in 2022. I'm not sure if that chart is for just the Chinese market or for world wide market, but it shows Infineon losing market share there from 2021 to 2022 to the point where CRRC will have the largest market share at 14%. It looks quite different from here New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Anyways, the expansion is the meaningful part. The biggest Chinese players are BYD, CRRC and Starpower. Silan is getting a lot bigger this year. Starpower is fabless and have its chips produced by Huahong Grace and also Shanghai GTA and SMIC Shaoxing.

If you look at that table of 2022 production levels, you can see how much the Chinese chipmakers are producing this year. Silan is going from 0 to 800k modules in 1 year due to orders from BYD. BYD itself is still waiting for its fabs to ramp up. BYD itself is going from 1 fab in 2021 to 3 fabs this year. And, the Jinan fab will have 3 phases of expansion and eventually producing 12-inch wafers.

Aside from Silan, BYD also made IGBT orders to other suppliers including StarPower Semiconductor, Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric, and CR MICRO.

Click to expand...

Looks like BYD ordered from all the major players back in 2021 when it was ramping up its auto. With its chip production probably 4x/5x over the next few years, it probably will be a net seller of IGBTs/SiCs in a few year.

CRRC produces chips for FAW, GAC, Dongfeng, Neta and Chang'An.