New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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I hope there will be more reports on byd efforts in export market soon. It is going up steadily, which is why they are ordering their own cargo ships.

According to data, they exported 9488 in past year. It's climbing steadily in past 5 quarters with 438, 1972, 1993, 2226 and 3297. They reached a high monthly export in June at 2177. This will continue to go up as production rate reaches 250k a month by end of the year.

As we discussed, it will get unveiled in Thailand soon. Auto life Thailand actually made a 80 minutes long video of all the dynasty model and dolphin. Dolphin should be a high seller in Thailand with the plant there. It has the most views of any recent videos they have made.
 
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tphuang

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Byd news. The Thailand factory and launch will be announced on the 8th. It will apparently be producing 100k annually initially and could get even larger than that. It will serve asean and European markets. This is bigger operation than I expected. I guess the rail from china to Laos to Thailand allows them to move parts to Thailand for much lower cost than shipping. That's probably the reason they picked Thailand for their factory ahead of Philippines and Indonesia. I am sure they are also getting a good deal from Thai government here.

They are meeting with Hunan government again to probably expand their factory base there. They already have 2 factories there that will eventually produce 1 million cars a year. They are either looking to get Stellantis's old factory and/or are also getting a new factory in Hunan. Their construction company is so efficient. Everything gets built so quickly. They are building them all across China and creating a lot of jobs.

Regarding the order for the 8 PCTC ships for delivery in 2025. I see this as their way of controlling their destiny. The 8 ships should allow them to carry about 500k cars for export a year. I see them looking to export a lot more than that.

If you've seen how well they run their construction company, I think their shipping subsidiary will be run very well too. I'm a little surprised that they are buying ships that can only carry cars. I see some utility in carrying cars to places like Brazil, Argentina and Australia and then carrying back Lithium and other raw materials. Maybe they don't want to get hijacked by shipping companies and are doing this to guarantee they can ship their exports.

Update of their news from July
July 5th, xian findream third factory started trail production. Will start real production in August. For external customers, 12 gwh capacity. 2nd phase of this third factory start construction in July.

Xian 2nd factory 3rd phase starts production in September. Will produce frigate 07.

July 5th, Nanning byd new material was established. It's in charge of a 30k ton lithium project in Nanning. On the same day, Guangxi findream in Nanning was established with target production of 10 GWh of batteries. Will be produced using existing factory space. Can start work in September. Again, great example of BYD leveraging its production for resources.

July 6th, Zhengzhou's 2nd whole car factory started construction. It will endeavor to be able to produce 600k cars + 30 GWh blade battery. This is going to be producing medium to high end brand cars (like Denza I guess) fro BYD. This is a great example of BYD starting production in a part of country (Henan) that probably would otherwise not have auto production. They are taking on great risks to build up auto manufacturing all around the country. They are getting some local bus orders for sure, but not many automakers are taking the same plunge.

July 7th, Hefei factory started full production rate. It should eventually reach 70 JPH and 40k+ a monthly production. To put things in perspective, Tesla's Shanghai factory is doing 66 JPH after the upgrade. So, this is a huge base.

July 8th, BYD and Chengdu gov't signed a new strategic cooperation on electronics, NEVs, communications and new industries. Sounds like they are under negotiation for building car production, batteries, rail and semiconductor factories in Chengdu. Again, bringing auto industry and IC industry to a part of the country that have been left behind in all of this.

Same day, Denza is officially 90% BYD.

July 9th, Findream Fuzhou plant has finished construction and will start installing equipments. Will try to start first production line in Oct 15th.

July 16th, Jinan Findream first phase has started production. Looks to produce 30 GWh with 18 production line. 8 of which for external clients (Tesla is the main customer.)

Findream technology is building a new production line in Xiangtan, Hunan. No idea what this is producing. Maybe chips?

July 21st, Xiangyang (Hubei) findream project has completed structural closure with start production on Dec 15h. Will have 3 phases. First phase 30 Gwh. 2nd and 3rd phase also coming. The third phase might include whole car production + parts production. Again, Xiangyang itself is not an auto production base.

July 25th. signed contract for 40k ton lithium at Qinghai. So they have now signed basically over 100k ton lithium domestic production across the country.

July 28th, Henan Anyang base. Will produce parts for 720k cars yearly and aiming to produce 1.2 million motor kits. Start production in October

international market
July 12th, signed deal with Brazil for D1 for ride hailing. Start with export of 300 D1s.

Also signed contract for 25 store front in Brazil and expand to 45 by end of the year.

320 Atto 3 arrived in NZ on July 13th. Will start delivery in October and expect to deliver over 3000 this year.
BYD exported 1626 Yuan+ EVs in June

On same day, BYD and its local partner ADL has start production of Enviro200EV but at their Nottingham factory.

July 17th, started selling Yuan+ EV in Costa Rica. Sold 1200 Yuan Pro in first half of year in Costa Rica.

Getting Atto 3 ready for the Nepal market in August.

July 21st, announced Japan market entrance

July 28ths, announced participation in Paris Motor Show. Will start delivery in Q4 in Europe.

So the international expansion plans are
step 1: Aussie + Kiwi (no competition)
Step 2: Japan (to demonstrate product quality)
Step 3: Europe (Norway, Germany, Holland, France, Italy and Spain)
Step 4: North America (has export restrictions.
ASEAN markets also in 2023 will see a lot of exports

Again Song+ DM-i, Yuan+ EV, Dolphin and Seal are the main export products.
 
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henrik

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Byd news. The Thailand factory and launch will be announced on the 8th. It will apparently be producing 100k annually initially and could get even larger than that. It will serve asean and European markets. This is bigger operation than I expected. I guess the rail from china to Laos to Thailand allows them to move parts to Thailand for much lower cost than shipping. That's probably the reason they picked Thailand for their factory ahead of Philippines and Indonesia. I am sure they are also getting a good deal from Thai government here.

They are meeting with Hunan government again to probably expand their factory base there. They already have 2 factories there that will eventually produce 1 million cars a year. They are either looking to get Stellantis's old factory and/or are also getting a new factory in Hunan. Their construction company is so efficient. Everything gets built so quickly. They are building them all across China and creating a lot of jobs.

Regarding the order for the 8 PCTC ships for delivery in 2025. I see this as their way of controlling their destiny. The 8 ships should allow them to carry about 500k cars for export a year. I see them looking to export a lot more than that.

If you've seen how well they run their construction company, I think their shipping subsidiary will be run very well too. I'm a little surprised that they are buying ships that can only carry cars. I see some utility in carrying cars to places like Brazil, Argentina and Australia and then carrying back Lithium and other raw materials. Maybe they don't want to get hijacked by shipping companies and are doing this to guarantee they can ship their exports.

Update of their news from July
July 5th, xian findream third factory started trail production. Will start real production in August. For external customers, 12 gwh capacity. 2nd phase of this third factory start construction in July.

Xian 2nd factory 3rd phase starts production in September. Will produce frigate 07.

July 5th, Nanning byd new material was established. It's in charge of a 30k ton lithium project in Nanning. On the same day, Guangxi findream in Nanning was established with target production of 10 GWh of batteries. Will be produced using existing factory space. Can start work in September. Again, great example of BYD leveraging its production for resources.

July 6th, Zhengzhou's 2nd whole car factory started construction. It will endeavor to be able to produce 600k cars + 30 GWh blade battery. This is going to be producing medium to high end brand cars (like Denza I guess) fro BYD. This is a great example of BYD starting production in a part of country (Henan) that probably would otherwise not have auto production. They are taking on great risks to build up auto manufacturing all around the country. They are getting some local bus orders for sure, but not many automakers are taking the same plunge.

July 7th, Hefei factory started full production rate. It should eventually reach 70 JPH and 40k+ a monthly production. To put things in perspective, Tesla's Shanghai factory is doing 66 JPH after the upgrade. So, this is a huge base.

July 8th, BYD and Chengdu gov't signed a new strategic cooperation on electronics, NEVs, communications and new industries. Sounds like they are under negotiation for building car production, batteries, rail and semiconductor factories in Chengdu. Again, bringing auto industry and IC industry to a part of the country that have been left behind in all of this.

Same day, Denza is officially 90% BYD.

July 9th, Findream Fuzhou plant has finished construction and will start installing equipments. Will try to start first production line in Oct 15th.

July 16th, Jinan Findream first phase has started production. Looks to produce 30 GWh with 18 production line. 8 of which for external clients (Tesla is the main customer.)

Findream technology is building a new production line in Xiangtan, Hunan. No idea what this is producing. Maybe chips?

July 21st, Xiangyang (Hubei) findream project has completed structural closure with start production on Dec 15h. Will have 3 phases. First phase 30 Gwh. 2nd and 3rd phase also coming. The third phase might include whole car production + parts production. Again, Xiangyang itself is not an auto production base.

July 25th. signed contract for 40k ton lithium at Qinghai. So they have now signed basically over 100k ton lithium domestic production across the country.

July 28th, Henan Anyang base. Will produce parts for 720k cars yearly and aiming to produce 1.2 million motor kits. Start production in October

international market
July 12th, signed deal with Brazil for D1 for ride hailing. Start with export of 300 D1s.

Also signed contract for 25 store front in Brazil and expand to 45 by end of the year.

320 Atto 3 arrived in NZ on July 13th. Will start delivery in October and expect to deliver over 3000 this year.
BYD exported 1626 Yuan+ EVs in June

On same day, BYD and its local partner ADL has start production of Enviro200EV but at their Nottingham factory.

July 17th, started selling Yuan+ EV in Costa Rica. Sold 1200 Yuan Pro in first half of year in Costa Rica.

Getting Atto 3 ready for the Nepal market in August.

July 21st, announced Japan market entrance

July 28ths, announced participation in Paris Motor Show. Will start delivery in Q4 in Europe.

So the international expansion plans are
step 1: Aussie + Kiwi (no competition)
Step 2: Japan (to demonstrate product quality)
Step 3: Europe (Norway, Germany, Holland, France, Italy and Spain)
Step 4: North America (has export restrictions.
ASEAN markets also in 2023 will see a lot of exports

Again Song+ DM-i, Yuan+ EV, Dolphin and Seal are the main export products.

About this Stellantis's old factory, bloomberg is spinning it as political in nature, not because of falling sales and uncompelling products.

Jeep Pulls Out of China Over Government Meddling in Business

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tphuang

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I wouldn't take that Bloomberg article too seriously. I guess the author can't deal with the fact that China doesn't want Jeep/Stellantis cars. There will be more casualties like this in the future. Toyota, Honda and Nissan, I'm look at you. Same with Hyundai. BYD is coming after your factories for really cheap.

Lol, Electric Viking has caught onto what Chinese social media have been saying for a while. The Sea Lion is coming after Model Y. Model 3 market in China is too crowded. Model Y market needs more competition. Sea Lion will do great. It baffles me why every new Chinese automaker thinks they need to compete in the most competitive market.

But as I said before, this is only part of the picture, BYD is going after everyone, not just Tesla. Most of their victims will be legacy auto. BYD has a great strategy.

I do want to see how many overseas factories they build. With this move to get into their own shipping fleet, this will give them new power in moving cars, kits, batteries, parts and importing raw materials. Maybe they will buy some second hand ships too.
 

AndrewS

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Byd news. The Thailand factory and launch will be announced on the 8th. It will apparently be producing 100k annually initially and could get even larger than that. It will serve asean and European markets. This is bigger operation than I expected. I guess the rail from china to Laos to Thailand allows them to move parts to Thailand for much lower cost than shipping. That's probably the reason they picked Thailand for their factory ahead of Philippines and Indonesia. I am sure they are also getting a good deal from Thai government here.

Thailand is already an established automobile export hub for Japanese automakers.
If I look at the numbers, Thailand produces twice as many cars as Indonesia or seven times more than Philippines.

That should translate into availability of skilled labour and low-cost automotive suppliers.

As for transport costs, shipping parts and components is the easy part as they are generally small.
But when you have to ship an entire car that is mostly empty air inside, that is when cost really mounts up.

Yes, Thailand does have an advantage in being geographically closer to China than Indonesia or the Philippines.
But Thailand has an even bigger advantage with what looks like the highest car sales of any country in ASEAN, combined with export markets a short drive from the Thai car plants.
 

tphuang

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Thailand is already an established automobile export hub for Japanese automakers.
If I look at the numbers, Thailand produces twice as many cars as Indonesia or seven times more than Philippines.

That should translate into availability of skilled labour and low-cost automotive suppliers.

As for transport costs, shipping parts and components is the easy part as they are generally small.
But when you have to ship an entire car that is mostly empty air inside, that is when cost really mounts up.

Yes, Thailand does have an advantage in being geographically closer to China than Indonesia or the Philippines.
But Thailand has an even bigger advantage with what looks like the highest car sales of any country in ASEAN, combined with export markets a short drive from the Thai car plants.
They have had some issues with shipping to Australia and new Zealand. There is just more unreliability when it comes to shipping vs rail freight. I think that's part of the reason they are getting their own fleet. They don't want to leave their destiny to shipping companies.

Interesting point, gm losing huge money on autonomous driving. Kind of makes sense for that to be the case with not having access to the best software engineers, not enough drivers and data. Software development at legacy auto is slow. They don't move fast enough. Herbert diess said many times that vw could not develop software fast enough.
 

henrik

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I wouldn't take that Bloomberg article too seriously. I guess the author can't deal with the fact that China doesn't want Jeep/Stellantis cars. There will be more casualties like this in the future. Toyota, Honda and Nissan, I'm look at you. Same with Hyundai. BYD is coming after your factories for really cheap.

Lol, Electric Viking has caught onto what Chinese social media have been saying for a while. The Sea Lion is coming after Model Y. Model 3 market in China is too crowded. Model Y market needs more competition. Sea Lion will do great. It baffles me why every new Chinese automaker thinks they need to compete in the most competitive market.

But as I said before, this is only part of the picture, BYD is going after everyone, not just Tesla. Most of their victims will be legacy auto. BYD has a great strategy.

I do want to see how many overseas factories they build. With this move to get into their own shipping fleet, this will give them new power in moving cars, kits, batteries, parts and importing raw materials. Maybe they will buy some second hand ships too.
If BYD could export more plug-in hybrids, that would speed up the fall of Toyota. In many countries there is a lineup not only for pure EVs, but also for Toyota and Kia plug-in hydrids.
 

tphuang

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Toyota will get bailed out. No chance Japanese gov't allow Toyota fail. 0%

Honda, Nissan, Subaru and Suzuki on the other hand, no way they can bail out everyone.

Song+ DM-i and maybe Qin+ DM-i will be BYD's main ICE replacement exports.

Meanwhile in Japan,
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4 BYD buses to be used in BRT Hikoboshi Line.

In China, BYD leadership has met with the provincial heads (or pretty high up) of Hunan, Henan and Shaanxi on 3 consecutive days. (28th to 30th). This shows they importance of BYD to these provinces. BYD is bringing a lot of construction and quality manufacturing jobs to these provinces and becoming pillar industry in them. You don't get provincial gov't talking to you at this level unless you are negotiating massive expansion. Chinese social media commented that many of these provinces relied on real estate boom for job/growth in recent years. Now, BYD is bringing real industries to replace crashing real estate market.

Keep in mind, the development of auto industry also leads to great demand for batteries, manufacturing equipments, construction, different chips, different sensors (lidar, MMW radar, ultrasonic radar and such). That's the second order affect of having large domestic auto industry. Since the talk has been about China fully controlling the chip production process of 90 to 14 nm. This is where such technological progress really matters.
 
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