New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
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There is basically nothing you can sanction away from BYD once they develop their own smart driving chip. As I said, BYD has this all figured out with vertical integration. Every other critical part is already done indigenously. Thankfully, you don't need the latest chips for EVs. 16 nm chips is sufficient and it won't alarm the US gov't.

They will probably announce US entry in either the LA auto show in November or CES next year. Due to tariffs, they are likely to announce plans to build EVs in North America. And possibly battery factories too. They already have the largest electric bus factory in America at its Lancaster location. That along with its Berkshire investors will give BYD some political protection in Washington. After all, EVs are not seen as a national security issue.

Another visual of how popular BYD is.

If you look at the current Chinese markets. BYD is attempting to compete with everyone. It's establishing itself as China's Toyota. With Denza and Starry sky brand, it's encroaching German luxury car makers and even Ferrari. Those are segments even Toyota doesn't compete in. So, I just don't see Tesla able to compete with that. I don't see the Germans able to compete with BYD given how quickly BYD moves. None of these Japanese/German automakers can move fast enough in lowering EV production cost let alone developing the software needed to do full smart driving.

So you are left with Chinese automakers. Both NIO and Xpeng have great products, but they are unable to raise production fast enough to compete with BYD. They also don't have the deep pockets for this.

So why is Huawei and Baidu going to be huge competitors? Well, they can work with existing players like Geely, Chery, Sokon, GWM and anyone else who are struggling to develop their own competitive electric motor or self driving. They are unlikely to want to take on most of their own manufacturing. They will use these existing players, who have vast amount of unused factory production space (for example, Geely has the ability to produce over 2 million cars, but sells less than 1 million). That allows them to quickly raise production without having to go through the high cost of getting permits, buying the land, building factories and hiring workers. And bam, you have a bunch of Huawei and Baidu cars around that will now have advanced self driving.

That's why BYD is dead serious about developing its own chips and self driving. It doesn't want to be controlled or even rely on anyone else. It is investing heavily here.

I predict in the next 10 years, a lot of the legacy JV manufacturers in China like SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Changan are going to have a hard time as the foreign brand sales keep plunging. They will either have their factories bought out by BYD or have JVs to build cars with BYD electric drive/smart driving technology or with Huawei and Baidu.
I think the Chinese government should seriously consider merging some of the uncompetitive SOEs together. For example, FAW realistically is only known for Hongqi. Why not merge FAW, JAC, JMCG, BAIC, and Dongfeng together? It will form a conglomerate that could build vehicles of every type and price range. Only issues is that it reduces competition in heavier trucks.

I would say that SAIC, Changan Motors, and GAC seems to be much more competitive as a stand alone company, so they should remain independent.
 

tphuang

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Many American auto manufacturers have plants in Mexico, CATL needs to build a factory close to the plants. If the US reenacts tariffs on Mexican auto, then US automakers are also screwed. The US automakers will keep their Mexico plants and construct new plants in US if that happens, CATL can also build factories in US then.

CATL is already planning another factory in US already (Georgia?), this Mexican plant is just another plant in north america.
The American auto manufacturers are still American. They are not going to be banned from selling in America.

CATL has no factory in the US. Right now, there is a huge bullseye on Chinese companies in America. Placing factories in an area of Mexico known for cartels so that they don't have to tariffs is a really bad look. If they were going to put a Mexican plant, they should have put it in around Mexico City. At least the gov't is in control there and they'd get great coverage from Mexican press.
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Another traditional automaker bites the dust in China. I think Stellantis' days in China are numbers. Only Peugeot, Citroen, and DS brands are left, and only barely.
Yep, this will be a common sight over the next few years.
I think the Chinese government should seriously consider merging some of the uncompetitive SOEs together. For example, FAW realistically is only known for Hongqi. Why not merge FAW, JAC, JMCG, BAIC, and Dongfeng together? It will form a conglomerate that could build vehicles of every type and price range. Only issues is that it reduces competition in heavier trucks.

I would say that SAIC, Changan Motors, and GAC seems to be much more competitive as a stand alone company, so they should remain independent.
They don't need to. Let them go under. Their factories will get bought out by healthy automakers like BYD and those workers will get hired again. China's auto industry is doing great. Let the market figure it out. The last thing you want to do is rescue uncompetitive companies.

NIO explaining how they disrupt German automaker pricing
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At this point, I think the door has already been knocked wide open and other Chinese brands like Denza, Hongqi, Hiphi and Li Auto have all moved into this space. Bad news for Germans.

So, I've been looking at this thing with amusement.
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The politicians think they can overcome reliance on Chinese dominated supply chain just by signing a few agreements and complain about relying too much on China to business leaders.
Even IEA is getting involved
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Rather than trying to see how they can work with China, these politicians just complain all day.

So despite the talk, 96% of Australian Lithium gets exported to China! Because that's the market is.
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Hint Australia, it might be a good idea to try to get a company called BYD to build factories in Australia in exchange for Lithium rights. Use your natural resources to help your citizens rather than just making promises and do nothing.

And I understand why politicians in America are so clueless about this. They only speak to these Big 3 CEOs, who tell them crazy outlandish dreams with no realistic hope of succeeding.
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These politicians cannot even figure out that Tesla is the dominant EV maker in America, how can they possibly figure out how far China is ahead of them in auto market. The reason companies cannot separate themselves from China is because it's the largest and most competitive EV market in the world (no close seconds). The competition in China is so fierce that everyone needs to utilize the Chinese supply chain and research centers to be competitive with local Chinese automakers. How do you expect companies to shift away from China when they have never sanctioned them, but have always provided quality product at low prices?

I think Huawei will have a hard time exporting to Europe and America. However, CATL is having no issue building factories outside of China. Gotion is the go to battery provider for VW. BYD will soon be building more factories in Europe and North America. The world is only become more reliant on Chinese supply chain in spite of the politicians in Washington.
 

supercat

Major
They have Quantumscape, the leader in solid-state lithium-metal battery technology.

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Maybe, just maybe, they just got beaten by SVOLT?
Svolt Energy develops solid-state battery cells that will allow vehicles to reach over 1,000 km range
The cells have an energy density of 350-400 Wh/kg and has now successfully passed tests including pin prick and 200°C hot box tests, Svolt Energy said.
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Nio is entering the U.S.

NIO accelerates the expansion to the US, starts hiring key positions for the first NIO Houses​

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Philister

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the Chinese government should seriously consider merging some of the uncompetitive SOEs together. For example, FAW realistically is only known for Hongqi. Why not merge FAW, JAC, JMCG, BAIC, and Dongfeng together? It will form a conglomerate that could build vehicles of every type and price range. Only issues is that it reduces competition in heavier trucks.

I would say that SAIC, Changan Motors, and GAC seems to be much more competitive as a stand alone company, so they should remain independent.
Because it’s not how things work, merging them into a big incompetent pie just make it worse, at this point I would just let the market decide.
Actually, Hongqi&BAIC&JAC& ding gent are doing okay for now
 
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