I think the Chinese government should seriously consider merging some of the uncompetitive SOEs together. For example, FAW realistically is only known for Hongqi. Why not merge FAW, JAC, JMCG, BAIC, and Dongfeng together? It will form a conglomerate that could build vehicles of every type and price range. Only issues is that it reduces competition in heavier trucks.There is basically nothing you can sanction away from BYD once they develop their own smart driving chip. As I said, BYD has this all figured out with vertical integration. Every other critical part is already done indigenously. Thankfully, you don't need the latest chips for EVs. 16 nm chips is sufficient and it won't alarm the US gov't.
They will probably announce US entry in either the LA auto show in November or CES next year. Due to tariffs, they are likely to announce plans to build EVs in North America. And possibly battery factories too. They already have the largest electric bus factory in America at its Lancaster location. That along with its Berkshire investors will give BYD some political protection in Washington. After all, EVs are not seen as a national security issue.
Another visual of how popular BYD is.
If you look at the current Chinese markets. BYD is attempting to compete with everyone. It's establishing itself as China's Toyota. With Denza and Starry sky brand, it's encroaching German luxury car makers and even Ferrari. Those are segments even Toyota doesn't compete in. So, I just don't see Tesla able to compete with that. I don't see the Germans able to compete with BYD given how quickly BYD moves. None of these Japanese/German automakers can move fast enough in lowering EV production cost let alone developing the software needed to do full smart driving.
So you are left with Chinese automakers. Both NIO and Xpeng have great products, but they are unable to raise production fast enough to compete with BYD. They also don't have the deep pockets for this.
So why is Huawei and Baidu going to be huge competitors? Well, they can work with existing players like Geely, Chery, Sokon, GWM and anyone else who are struggling to develop their own competitive electric motor or self driving. They are unlikely to want to take on most of their own manufacturing. They will use these existing players, who have vast amount of unused factory production space (for example, Geely has the ability to produce over 2 million cars, but sells less than 1 million). That allows them to quickly raise production without having to go through the high cost of getting permits, buying the land, building factories and hiring workers. And bam, you have a bunch of Huawei and Baidu cars around that will now have advanced self driving.
That's why BYD is dead serious about developing its own chips and self driving. It doesn't want to be controlled or even rely on anyone else. It is investing heavily here.
I predict in the next 10 years, a lot of the legacy JV manufacturers in China like SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Changan are going to have a hard time as the foreign brand sales keep plunging. They will either have their factories bought out by BYD or have JVs to build cars with BYD electric drive/smart driving technology or with Huawei and Baidu.
I would say that SAIC, Changan Motors, and GAC seems to be much more competitive as a stand alone company, so they should remain independent.