Well, Rivian/Lucid are losing money on every car and have no idea how to ramp up, so I don't know if NIO wants to get compared to them.
If NIO can get to 20+k production per month by the end of this year, then I think we can be optimistic about them. Having a mass-market brand that produces 500k car a year is not particularly ambitious
Seems like Chinese automakers like to build factories in Hungry as a way to enter EU market. Other choice is Poland.
BYD will be at CES 2023. For those who don't know, CES is a pretty big deal here and happens every year in Vegas right after new year. Could there be a major announcement about entry into US market? We will see. It would match some of the other recent announcements about export market like Atto 3 to India in 2023, to Singapore in July, New Zealand in Q3 and new factory in Brazil.
And funnily enough, it's even entering Mongolia.
I think 2023 is a big year for BYD internationally in PV market.
Tesla Model Y LR is increasing prices in China. This is kind of interesting. Tesla is increasing prices everywhere, but there was rumor on Chinese social media that Model 3 Base model might be seeing a 20% price reduction. Which leads to the theory that Tesla is seeing weakness in Model 3 demand in China. We've seen the wait time for Model 3 go down recently. All of which points to an overcrowded 200k-300k RMB sedan market in China with the recent launch of Seal, Huawei AITO M5 and a whole bunch of other new offerings. BYD Han appears to be most popular model in this price range now.
some info here on the blade battery for Tesla.
More info on Denza D9. I can see Denza model taking a large bite out of both BMW and Tesla Model Y demand.
D9 has over 20,000 pre-orders. 25% EV and 75% DM-i
30% 2W drive, 70% 4W drive
Customers are 30% BMW customers, 30% existing BYD customers, 40% are customers with Van/or 6/7 seat SUV.
Estimate no more than 5% customers that don't go forward with their pre-orders.
300+k market in 2021 was a 3 million car market, with 50% SUV, 42.5% Sedan and 7.5 MPV. MPV market is growing, sedan is decreasing.
Denza is looking to reach 20% market share. 600k+ a year would be a pretty ambitious total for Denza. It would be larger than Tesla and NIO in this segment.
D9 will start delivery in August with about 3000 DM-i version. EV start in November.
Expect a medium sized SUV and medium to large SUV released under Denza brand this year. So 3 models in the 300 to 600k RMB segment.