Can we talk about the strategic aspect of Chinese EV? Will it lead to deindustrialisatioj of Japan and Germany due to their reliance on auto industry?
It will also make others integrate with chinese economy tighter with them making attempt at decouple costlier.
It will make nation like gulf states and russia less relevant due to less fuel consumption in all places.
The entire Western world is in the process of being deindustrialized, thanks to a confluence of factors happening simultaneously in fatal synchronous alignment.
Despite the car demand, car sales are down because companies can only produce this much cars with the chips on hand. As long as there is a chip shortage, you can't produce enough cars. Ironically, Russia throwing its car industry back to the eighties, minimal to no electronics needed, might be a hidden blessing.
As car prices go up, this leads to a booming used car market and an eventual destruction of car demand later. Coupled with general economic recessions in Europe and the US, high inflation means people will put their money on their essentials and less towards things like cars.
War in the Ukraine means higher steel prices, and that's going to affect the costs of making a car. See how that affects car production in Europe, Japan and everywhere. The Azovstal plant alone accounts for 50% of the steel production in the Ukraine.
Higher oil prices means headwinds to the costs of plastic, such as those used in making cars.
Not to mention the costs of other metals, Aluminum, Copper, Titanium, and so on.
High oil prices can lead to the destruction of demand of less than economical cars. Could wipe out what's left of the gas guzzling US cars and trucks.
High oil prices means higher costs of diesel, which will raise the cost of logistics, which can result in the shuttering of logistics firms. This can kill the demand for commercial trucks which are already too costly to make anyway.
We are also facing a new vector in the declining and aging population of truck drivers in the US and Europe. Not everyone wants to be a truck driver, and truck drivers, like manufacturing jobs, are those 'dirty' jobs entitled feeling millennials in developed nations are staying away from, as these are jobs that are beneath them. And these jobs also include auto mechanics that you need to keep your cars running.
The next 10 to 20 years is going to be a rocky ride.
