New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
supercat
Major
LG Energy Solution (subsidiary of LG Chem) claims that they will be the largest EV battery maker in the future. I highly doubt it. They will be lucky if they can really build the 25 GWh LFP battery by the end of 2024 in the U.S. Even by then, their LFP batteries are pouch cells, not prismatic cells, which probably cannot take the full advantages of the Cell-To-Pack (CTP) technologies.
Yes, Tesla is the only foerign automaker ranked among the top ten EV sellers in China this year. China's auto industry finally turned the corner, thanks to EV.
I think byd has quite a lot of experience now in international market. Most of that have been with non passenger vehicles. They have significant market share in buses, taxis and other vehicles which don't require the complete charging infrastructure or invoke as much local protectionism. In terms of passenger vehicles, geely have a lot more experience with it's numerous buyouts like Volvo. Maybe that's the route byd will have to go if it wants to export. There will be plenty of legacy automakers having trouble in the coming years. Especially Japanese ones. Maybe byd will be able to buy one or form jv with well know western company to get into certain markets like us or Japan without facing too much local scrutiny.
Most of the developing markets have a lot of risks. Their charging infrastructure is not great. You just have to deal with it. places like India and Indonesia may have a low average income, they do have a growing middle class that can afford dolphin or sea gull. Even if just 1% of Indian family can afford something like that, it's still a very large market. The big issue with India is all politically related.
With Indonesian govt putting effort behind ev push, I think it's clear that small EVs will have a huge push in that country. The EV market for small cars, taxis and buses should be pretty large there in the coming years. I don't think Tesla will be building a factory there despite what Indonesian officials are hoping for. Just not enough local market for Tesla. China should work with these asean countries to build up local charging stations that work with Chinese standard. It's a huge competitive advantage for Chinese cars to do so. This is something Chinese government will be wise to push. Push its own standard for everything to asean countries.
Hoping wuling plant indonesia is just one of many new ones we will see in the coming years.
Most of the developing markets have a lot of risks. Their charging infrastructure is not great. You just have to deal with it. places like India and Indonesia may have a low average income, they do have a growing middle class that can afford dolphin or sea gull. Even if just 1% of Indian family can afford something like that, it's still a very large market. The big issue with India is all politically related.
With Indonesian govt putting effort behind ev push, I think it's clear that small EVs will have a huge push in that country. The EV market for small cars, taxis and buses should be pretty large there in the coming years. I don't think Tesla will be building a factory there despite what Indonesian officials are hoping for. Just not enough local market for Tesla. China should work with these asean countries to build up local charging stations that work with Chinese standard. It's a huge competitive advantage for Chinese cars to do so. This is something Chinese government will be wise to push. Push its own standard for everything to asean countries.
Hoping wuling plant indonesia is just one of many new ones we will see in the coming years.
Everything I agree with except your final point.
Chinese companies, especially the big ones are not rookies or inexperienced at this point. Haier went and acquired GE Appliances which is a huge acquisition considering the physical footprint they have in America.
Chinese corporate culture were rookies when SAIC took over SsangYong motors in Korea. That was a colossal failure and waste of time. It was also 15 years ago. Contrast this to Geely-Volvo which was just a short time later, but the execution made it seem like decades later.
I think the India opportunity is really attractive in the same way China was attractive to Western companies decades ago. China also had all those problems, but some western companies made it work and it paid off. Ford China and India both started at the same time, but they gave up on India because after so many decades it still didn't pay off, India never made the leap. For the Chinese companies coming in later, they hope this is finally the time.
China is way more friendly to foreign companies. The Chinese would like to draw in foreign companies for setting up factories and supply chains. In return, they will get part of the Chinese market.
India is hostile to Chinese companies. They have banned many Chinese smartphone apps, like tiktok, from time to time. They have raided offices of xiaomi for various reasons, like tax evasion. The Indians prefer western companies, like Apple and Tesla, but in recent years GM, Ford and harley Davidson have abandoned Indian manufacturing.
Nio should get their act together. They have way more stylish cars than BYD. But they need to start production at their big Neo Park factory.
broadsword
Brigadier
Chinese companies should be steering away from American companies already. Can't let what happens to the computing industry repeat in the EV industry.
The speed of EV adoption really depends on government subsidy，that's why the vast majority of EV sales occurred in China/EU/US
By Norihiko Shirouzu
BEIJING (Reuters) - If global automakers think they can extend their dominance in China into the electric era, they may be in for a shock.
Kings of the combustion age such as General Motors and Volkswagen are falling behind local players in the booming electric vehicle (EV) market in China, a country that's key to funding and developing their electric and autonomous ambitions.
© Reuters/ALY SONGFILE PHOTO: Buick's electric vehicle(EV) Velite 6 of GM is unveiled during the media day for Shanghai auto show
For Beijing office worker Tianna Cheng, the main dilemma when she was buying a 180,000-yuan ($27,000) Xpeng electric crossover was whether she should go for a BYD car instead, or a Nio; she did not seriously consider overseas marques.
"If I was buying a gasoline car, I may have considered foreign brands," the 29-year-old said as she drove home from work. "But I wanted an EV, and other than Tesla, I saw few foreign brands applying advanced smart technology properly."
© Reuters/ALY SONGFILE PHOTO: Auto Shanghai show in Shanghai
Buoyed by demand from consumers like Cheng, electric car sales are rocketing in China's roughly $500 billion auto market, the world's biggest.
In the first four months of 2022, the number of new energy passenger cars - pure EVs and plug-in hybrids - more than doubled from a year earlier to 1.49 million cars, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The cleaner technologies accounted for 23% of China's passenger car market, where overall vehicle sales fell 12%, reflecting a steep decline in demand for gasoline cars.
There are no foreign brands among the top 10 automakers in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment this year, with the notable exception of U.S. electric pioneer Tesla in third place, according to China Passenger Car Association data.
© Reuters/SUN YILEIFILE PHOTO: People check a Volkswagen ID.4 X electric vehicle inside an ID. Store X showroom of SAIC Volkswagen in Chengdu
All the rest are Chinese brands, from BYD and Wuling to Chery and Xpeng. China leader BYD has sold about 390,000 EVs in the country this year, more than three times as many as global leader Tesla sold there. The top-ranked traditional carmaker is Volkswagen's venture with FAW Group, in 15th place for EV sales.
Cheng said that overseas marques, whether the Buick Velite 7 or Volkswagen's ID. series, failed to provide what she was looking for: an EV capable of giving her the "comfort" of having a smartphone-like experience in her vehicle.
"Foreign brands are so far from my life and lifestyle," said Cheng, whose digital assistant handles connections to apps like Alipay and Taobao and "does everything for me from opening the windows to turning on music", while her car software provides over-the-air updates.
It's quite a reversal. Global brands have dominated in China since the 1990s, typically winning a collective 60-70% share of passenger car sales in recent years. In the first four months of 2022 they captured 52%, with their April monthly share at 43%.
Signalling the scale of the challenge facing traditional automakers, Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida told Reuters that some brands "could disappear in three to five years" in China.
"Local brands are becoming stronger," said Uchida, who was formerly Nissan's China chief, adding that the quality of EVs from Chinese makers had improved rapidly, with advances being made in the space of months.
"There will be a lot of transformation in China and we need to carefully watch the situation," said the CEO, adding that carmakers had to be nimble in the design, development and launch of new models.
Related video: Chinese Tesla rival Xpeng discusses cost increases due to a rise in commodity prices (CNBC)
Chinese Tesla rival Xpeng discusses cost increases due to a rise in commodity prices
"In those aspects, if we were slow, we would be left behind."
'HI-TECH NATIVES'
Bill Russo, a former Chrysler executive who now heads Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility, said global brands need to turn the situation around quickly because they controlled less than 20% of China's only growth auto market.
"Chinese brands are wining the race to EV," said Russo, adding that consumers' shift to cars that are essentially smartphones on four wheels appeared irreversible and that traditional carmakers were having trouble keeping up.
"I think it's a secular shift toward hi-tech," he said of the consumer demand for a "user-centric digital services experience" with a focus on interface, connectivity and apps.
"Traditional companies are not hi-tech natives."
Volkswagen Group brands, including Volkswagen, Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Porsche and Skoda, have led the market for much of the past two decades, alongside General Motors marques such as Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac.
The two global groups had overall auto market shares of almost 13% and 12% respectively in China last year, according to LMC Automotive. Detroit giant GM also has a 44% stake in the locally controlled SAIC-GM-Wuling Auto (SGMW) venture, and includes its sales in group numbers, though SGMW does not make American brands, only Wuling and Baojun cars.
GM is now focused on winning over younger buyers in big cities that have hitherto largely snubbed its models according to two people familiar with the automaker's business in China.
The group has announced electrification plans to spend more than $35 billion globally by 2025, including more than 30 new EVs, over 20 of them in China, starting this year with the launch of the all-electric Cadillac Lyriq crossover SUV.
The two sources said the Lyriq launch would be followed by an electric Buick SUV and a smaller, sportier electric crossover, both also planned for as early as this year.
Sales of Buicks have declined 32% over the last five years to 828,600 vehicles in 2021, while Chevrolet has shrunk more than half to 269,000 vehicles, according to LMC Automotive.
GM told Reuters it was aiming to install capacity to produce 1 million EVs a year by 2025 in China, adding that demand for the Buick Velite NEV family and Chevrolet Menlo EV "both grew significantly" in 2021 and the first three months of this year.
It said it was deploying smart technologies including hands-free driver assistance on highways, "aviation-grade" cyber security and over-the-air software updates.
AUTOBAHN SPEED?
Volkswagen, which is spending around $55 billion globally on EVs by 2026, launched its new-generation of ID. series in China early last year but missed its goal of selling 80,000 to 100,000 cars last year. It aims to sell 160,000 to 200,000 ID. cars this year, though it has sold only 33,300 through April.
A key concern for foreign brands, according to one of the people close to GM plus a Volkswagen insider, is that their new EVs are being designed more for American and European markets in mind, with a heavier focus on performance and durability.
"Autobahn speeds? In most big cities in China traffic is so congested people can't even drive above 60 km/h on most days," said the source close to GM, who is familiar with the automaker's product plans and product-development processes.
Volkswagen said NEV demand in China was strongly linked to the "smart car" theme, adding that it was investing in local R&D, especially in software.
"Our strategy will enable us to achieve our ambitious targets in China. By 2030, we also want to be the market leader in e-vehicles and thus ensure that Volkswagen remains the number one in China in the future," it added.
The challenge for global brands is to find the formula to win over consumers in big cities with disposable incomes, like Cheng in Beijing and Li Huayuan, a civil engineer from Shanghai.
Li only half-heartedly considered Japanese and German brands when he bought his BYD electric sedan last year for 290,000 yuan including insurance.
"Seems to me only Tesla stands out when it comes to American brands," he said from his parked BYD car in the Sichuan provincial city of Mianyang where he's working on a project. "The other brands don't even look competitive to me."
Indians probably do prefer Western companies, but the fact that they abandoned India is because they are treated just as poorly by the government. Usually a deal is signed, then the local or national government will try to change the terms unfavourably later on.
Geeky-Volvo has a stake in Luminar, and will likely be the first on the market with their product, so it would not be like the semiconductors situation. Even if a fast one is pulled, you have Horizon AI, DJI-Livox, Huawei, Baidu-Apollo, etc.
This is one of a number of articles that talk about how much China hates the iD from VW. Just how uncompetitive is this thing?