Here's an interesting blast from the not-so-distant past.
CAAM is of course a trade body, and as late as April of 2024 they were forecasting 40% NEV penetration rate for 2024. It ended up closer to 48%. This year, the forecast is closer to 57%. Will China once again surprise to the upside?
Worth noting that the Chinese government was targeting a NEV penetration rate of 45% for 2027 a few years ago, which was considered aspirational. It will become harder to justify subsidies as the penetration rate outpaces forecasts. Also, as Glenn Luk has demonstrated, most of the big NEV automakers are profitable already. So it's not like the sector will collapse without subsidies.
Europe has removed most subsidies yet NEV sales are now growing strongly in 2025 after a brief hiatus in 2024. I personally think carbon taxes are a better tool rather than subsidies. Let the polluter pay.