They should leverage this strength by asking for discounts when buying foreign lithium.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
They should leverage this strength by asking for discounts when buying foreign lithium.
tphuang.
Could you please write an article on your website about how many Lithium China need total and per year?
Now that China has 30 million tons, how long can it last and how much should China produce each year for full self-sufficient?
Thanks,
How are sodium batteries coming along? I don’t think lithium is sustainable in the long run.
This is an easy paper napkin estimate even I can accomplish:
According to Statistica's estimate of global lithium demand:
2025 demand for lithium will increase by 25% over 2024. If (big IF) Global demand for lithium expands for the next 5 years at 25% constant rate and then flattens out, by 2030 the global demand will be 1404 x 3 ~= 4.2 million tons. IF China is cut off from lithium import, China's own supply will last more than 10 years, not counting recycled lithium.
it doesn't work that way. Everything is market based from supply and demand. What they are doing makes a lot of sense. Work with a whole bunch of countries in global south that have lithium supply and bring them online. Do the same with domestic production so that existing global producers like Australia and Chile don't get too benefit from under capacity in Lithium.
This kind of stuff is hard to say, because Lithium is not oil. You can make up for Lithium with other chemistries like Sodium. A lot of these BESS should probably be SIB in the future. Same with 2 wheelers and micro cars.
also even among LIB itself, different chemistry requires different amount of Li.
I don't know enough about sulfur based solid state lithium batteries to even guesstimate what % is Lithium.
It's pretty easy to guess how many GWh is needed every year to fully electrify the grid and transportation sector. But it's harder to figure out how many GWh will be LIB and how much Li is needed per GWh and how much is new vs recycled.
Li is probably sustainable. It's just chemistry and battery industry will always find something different if cost gets too high.
SIB is proceeding pretty nicely.
Li shortage is one of those things I just don't even think about anymore.
Huawei ADS 3.0 bringing VPD mode for airport parking.
More cold weather testing results show BYD EVs are just quite far ahead.
Hong Kong EV market show Tesla winning 2024. BYD still hasn't caught up here.
supercat
Major
In 2024, NEV sales in China (domestic + exports) was 12.87 M units, +35.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 40.9%. CAAM expects NEV sales to reach 16 million in 2025, an increase of approx. 25%. If China's NEV sales grow at 20% a year, then China's auto market will be fully electrified in 5-6 years.
Both CATL and SVOLT have 6C LFP batteries that can be charge from approx. 10-80% in 1/6 of a hour.
Both CATL and SVOLT have 6C LFP batteries that can be charge from approx. 10-80% in 1/6 of a hour.
My summary of CAAM numbers from today. All time high by the way. This includes commercial vehicles and overseas sales also.