New Cold War???

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
I think where the EU, even Japan, becomes frenemies to the US is when tightening energy resources are concerned. Everyone is happy and friends with one another when there are plenty resources for everyone. But when resources tighten, its every man to himself. Just basic human and animal instincts take over.

The crux of it is who will become the next petrodollar in the future---the Renminbi, the Eurodollar or the Yen? Europe, Japan and the US might be chummy on military alliances, but not in global economic competition where its every man to himself, e.g. Boeing vs. Airbus; BP vs. Exxon.

When the resources tighten, the horns will rear out of people's heads. The new Cold War isn't a "Cold" war but a global economic war in competition of resources, with the Third World, Central Asia, Africa, South America and the oceans as battlefields. This is the Resource Wars.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
I think where the EU, even Japan, becomes frenemies to the US is when tightening energy resources are concerned. Everyone is happy and friends with one another when there are plenty resources for everyone. But when resources tighten, its every man to himself. Just basic human and animal instincts take over.

The crux of it is who will become the next petrodollar in the future---the Renminbi, the Eurodollar or the Yen? Europe, Japan and the US might be chummy on military alliances, but not in global economic competition where its every man to himself, e.g. Boeing vs. Airbus; BP vs. Exxon.

When the resources tighten, the horns will rear out of people's heads. The new Cold War isn't a "Cold" war but a global economic war in competition of resources, with the Third World, Central Asia, Africa, South America and the oceans as battlefields. This is the Resource Wars.

That's very true. The dollar has been fatally weakened. The EU is in the best position to take over because it's the strongest and because it can be used in dozens of countries, unlike the RMB on the yen.

The "Resource Wars" provide another opportunity for the US and the EU to cooperate. Renewable energy. Europe already has more of their energy coming from renewable sources than any other country. The US should look to Europe for assistance bringing more of our economy into the 21st century through alternative energy. I am baffled at the lack of concern on this issue on both sides of the Atlantic. The technology is available today or at least within sight, yet both the EU and the US dawdle and prefer to fight a war (Iraq) to secure more of the dwindling oil supply than simply do away with oil all together. The strategic benefits are so great that NATO should be leading the way on an international effort to get its member nations off of petroleum. I imagine an Apollo program-level of scientific research accompaning a massive government push through legislation (tax breaks for ethanol cars, mandating ethanol pumps at all gas stations) and a concerted effort to bring NATO's militaries up to level where their dependence on oil is greatly reduced. The strategic benefits are too great to be ignored. The EU and NATO would win the Resource Wars in one or two decades, without firing a shot.
 

Scratch

Captain
Though sounding great at first, all that bio-fuel hype has a growing disadvantage. The demand of bio fuel is already that big that more and more cultivable land is used to grow corn, canola and other crop that can be use to make fuel of. It's more lucrative than growing for food already.
Since the world doesn't produce enough food for it's population anyway, it's getting worse, as can be seen by the steeply rising food prices lately. Several countries esp in SE Asia are becoming wealthier, so their people can afford to eat more meat, wich also takes more corn to feed the breeding cattle.
So with the secondary effects, the energy problem becomes even more complicated. That creates another sector of resources rivalary. There were violent protests around the world lately because of the high food prices.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Though sounding great at first, all that bio-fuel hype has a growing disadvantage. The demand of bio fuel is already that big that more and more cultivable land is used to grow corn, canola and other crop that can be use to make fuel of. It's more lucrative than growing for food already.
Since the world doesn't produce enough food for it's population anyway, it's getting worse, as can be seen by the steeply rising food prices lately. Several countries esp in SE Asia are becoming wealthier, so their people can afford to eat more meat, wich also takes more corn to feed the breeding cattle.
So with the secondary effects, the energy problem becomes even more complicated. That creates another sector of resources rivalary. There were violent protests around the world lately because of the high food prices.

Yes that's all true. Food prices are higher than they've ever been. Rice has risen 75% this year alone. Wheat's gone up 130%. Obviously biofuels are not the answer for powering inudstry and the electrical grid. However I think that concerted scientific research could produce a viable cellulose ethanol fuel that could be produced from agricultural waste. That doesn't dent the food supply at all.

In the end it's just an idea though, until the leaders of our nations get their acts together and do something.

Some people fret over the fact that China and America are becoming increaingly hostile to each other. They take the response by many average Westerners and Chinese people to the recent events in Tibet as evidence of this (Westerners seeing the Chinese as evil oppressors, Chinese seeing the Westerners as hypocrital imperialists). But we must never forget how quickly the leadership of China can do a total about-face in policy. Throughout the history of Communist China, we see that radically altering policy has never been an issue, especially in foreign policy. So I'm not too worried. If the CPC feels that they are getting into dangerous territory they will not feel compelled to continue on that course for any reason. It's difficult to imagine China getting itself into a situation where they are dragged into a war they don't want, when they can so frequently radically alter their policy.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
That's very true. The dollar has been fatally weakened. The EU is in the best position to take over because it's the strongest and because it can be used in dozens of countries, unlike the RMB on the yen. .......

One thing going against Euro now is that serious pain is being felt in Club Med countries like Spain, Italy, Greece & even France where credit is becoming very expensive whereas the still strong German economy means what some say is a German dominated Euro central bank is more focus on inflation.
The German population won't be happy to compromise on inflation fighting or other economic policies to help out Club Med.
These are strong forces splitting Euroland. Equally strong forces will need to be applied to keep it together.
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
That's very true. The dollar has been fatally weakened. The EU is in the best position to take over because it's the strongest and because it can be used in dozens of countries, unlike the RMB on the yen.

It's far more likely that oil, in the future will be bought with "currency baskets" then on any one given currency. European currency politics is just too unstable and will remain so for quite some time. Both China and India are not large enough and total size yet to become the new oil currency, but this could change very rapidly depending on growth rates. The dollar would've been replaced already but for the fact that there is no strong clear challenger. One of the reasons why the Federal Reserve inflated currency beyond all recognition, is because they could get away with it at this current time.


The "Resource Wars" provide another opportunity for the US and the EU to cooperate. Renewable energy. Europe already has more of their energy coming from renewable sources than any other country. The US should look to Europe for assistance bringing more of our economy into the 21st century through alternative energy. I am baffled at the lack of concern on this issue on both sides of the Atlantic. The technology is available today or at least within sight, yet both the EU and the US dawdle and prefer to fight a war (Iraq) to secure more of the dwindling oil supply than simply do away with oil all together. The strategic benefits are so great that NATO should be leading the way on an international effort to get its member nations off of petroleum. I imagine an Apollo program-level of scientific research accompaning a massive government push through legislation (tax breaks for ethanol cars, mandating ethanol pumps at all gas stations) and a concerted effort to bring NATO's militaries up to level where their dependence on oil is greatly reduced. The strategic benefits are too great to be ignored. The EU and NATO would win the Resource Wars in one or two decades, without firing a shot.

I'm glad that we are in the same page concerning the necessary transformation of the current energy economy.

Some of the geographic advantages that the United States has poor energy alternatives can be broken down as follows. Indeed with little political will of the United States could easily surpassed Europe due to the items below.

1--The American South West (Southern California Arizona and New Mexico and parts of Texas for example) have very vast tracks of desert wasteland in its western areas. Many of these sunbaked regions could be turned to solar power with great ease. In fact scientific American magazine had an article (only a few months back) about how they could displace all the foreign oil that said is used stateside via massive power generating facilities in the aforementioned region.

2-- Climate scientists are becoming very adept at mapping out regions with reliable and frequent high winds. Knowing where the wind blows, means you know where to put the large turbines, that would collect this vast amount of untapped energy.

3-- Many abandoned mines in the American West, can be used as high-pressure storage for both solar and wind energy during times when that energy cannot be collected. This means that pressurizing a abandoned natural gas and other mines, would act as a stopgap until battery technology caught up with renewable fuel technology, to provide proper 24-hour a day seven day a week coverage, of major metropolitan areas.

4-- Ultimately as hydrogen creation/capture technology becomes efficient enough, we may be able to store both solar and wind energy, in the hydrogen we create with that energy. Until hydrogen technology grows up, simply developing biofuel technology that can be harnessed from trees, waste, and "noble grasses" should be a priority. I do agree with other commentators in saying that "farm product based ethanol" is an unsustainable sham.

Bottom line is that the United States could easily pull ahead of Europe simply because its population density the total land undeveloped land area, is so much more favorable to locating renewable power generation. I foresee the Europeans being much more dependent on foreign oil for much longer than the United States will be, should the United States wake up and aggressively pursue alternatives.
 
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Scratch

Captain
Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't make sense to supply solar collectors to some african countries under a development aid program. It also supports the renewable energy industrie. These could then power desalination plants there to create fresh water. Turning dry land into agricultaral land and advancing hygiene is always a good start.
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
I would also argue that , Europe as a whole misjudged how the 9/11 attacks affected the psyche of the United States. For some Europeans, it appeared that neo-conservatism had hijacked the Bush administration’s foreign policy in the wake of 9/11, through deft maneuvering and appeals to nationalism.

The trouble really started when the 9/11 attacks were followed up almost immediately by anthrax attacks. Among Americans it became apparent that the old international order of limiting weapons of mass destruction had failed as completely as a system can fail. Even though it was later discovered that the anthrax probably came from improperly secured/disposed of domestic storage, the specter of North Korea, Iran or Iraq simply handing over fissile materials to suicidal terrorists, like a load of dirty socks from one neighbor to another on laundry day.... changed everything.

It's not accurate to say that the Bush administration was hijacked by neoconservatism so much as the fact that the neoconservatives were the first to move into, the gigantic void left over from traditional weapons of mass destruction containment policies. In other words when you're trying to replace nothing, even when the something you have is risky, it's likely to be adopted out of sheer expediency.

It should be remembered that up until and including the death Saddam Hussein, things appeared to be quite a great success. Libya had given over its WMD storage and Syria had become extraordinarily passive and easy to deal with. Had America left the Middle East at the moment Saddam died and allowed the Iraqis to simply succeed or fail on their own from their on.... American policy probably would've been judged as a success. Instead America's stayed in the Middle East, until is was entirely exhausted, both in finances and political will.

While it could be said that the Bush administration tried to hijack civil liberties you cannot say that the conservatives were hijacking American foreign-policy. American foreign-policy was simply a void at that point, that any plausible idea could step into.


It only became apparent to the Europeans in late 2002 that there was a shift in US policy from being a guardian of the peace and stability, to that of a potentially destabilizing nation, something that is not expected out of friends and allies.

To be a "destabilizing nation" you really have to be the primary cause of the destabilization. America was simply reacting to the fact that some countries were creating WMD as political leverage. The ultimate first cause of America's reaction is the unfortunate tendency of human beings to put up with and even support evil unstable dictatorships. For the longest time, America and the West ignored this because unstable dictatorships were normally a local phenomenon. Weapons of mass destruction turned unstable dictatorships into a world phenomenon and thus one in need of extraordinary remedy.... at least, this was American thinking at the time.

Changing the culture of the Middle East at its roots seems the only viable solution. I'm sure many an American foreign-policy circles, people such as myself, suggested a Harry Truman style policy of containment of the Arab and Persian portions of the Middle East. Unfortunately at the present time, large quantities of energy are needed from the those same political dysfunctional political entities. When Truman tried to contain the Soviet Union, the Russians had no mission-critical exports, but today's Middle East has an export no nation can do with without.


The Americans however, saw themselves as vulnerable, as the 9/11 attacks were the first attacks on the United States of this significant magnitude and damage since the War of 1812. They saw themselves as being under mortal threat and any deviations or concerns that the European allies had about how the United States conducted itself was irrelevant, and even more disappointingly, ingratitude for the decades during the Cold War where the United States protected Europe from the Soviet hordes so that Europe would not have to worry about the threat.

The question is not so much why the Americans see themselves as vulnerable. The question is why the Europeans see themselves as secure, when any slide the Middle East makes into the dark ages, hold the potential to gravely effect the European economy. Of even greater concern is why the Europeans allow so much immigration from Muslim states, when Middle Eastern culture and European culture are fully incompatible.

Americans are amazed at the Europeans would ignore such blatant threats to their continued existence. After all it may be many years before the United States completely replaces Middle Eastern oil, with energy alternatives. The Europeans are even more dependent on Middle Eastern oil with a longer period till European energy independence. Why are the Europeans insensitive to the possibility of terrorists with "backpack" nuclear weapons, or middle eastern oil supply shocks?
 
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Raptoreyes

New Member
Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't make sense to supply solar collectors to some african countries under a development aid program. It also supports the renewable energy industrie. These could then power desalination plants there to create fresh water. Turning dry land into agricultaral land and advancing hygiene is always a good start.

From a purely economic standpoint? No. However such a policy could make it harder for Russia and the Middle East to find new markets for its oil. Unfortunately renewables are just not fully mature yet. Fossil fuel will have to get slightly more expensive or renewables cheaper. Subsidizing renewable energy is wise simply to replace oil imports however. (provided that its not too expensive) Even with libertarians like myself eager to prevent the growth of oil exports for military/local autonomy reasons, environmental eco-weenies for global warming reasons, and farmers to artificially raise farm prices, its still a tough sell.
 
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BengalTiger71

New Member
When I view from my tiny country located at a crossroad between China and India (a newly acquired US-Israeli Ally), I can not stop thinking that a new Cold War is just offing. If China (it's people and leadership) has not realised yet that from now on there is no stopping before fully claiming China's rightful expression of her position of power then it will be a mamoth mistake. Such a mistake will not only keep China marginalized but also cast a grave and unfortunate consequenses for China's natural allies like Bangladesh.

Last thing we Bangladeshis can relish is becoming a vassel of India under a great US Imperialist Design. China please wake up!!
 
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