The PLAN's strategic operations will be and not exceed those operations in which they are confident in being able to succeed.
China's Navy is modernising and it is acquiring bulk, but! it is still at the beginning of a journey that its strategic competitors have been walking for a very, very, long time.
This means that the kind of activity which can be undertaken during peace time (global cruises - long distance courtesy visits etc) will be a million miles from those which can be undertaken under conditions of open hostility.
The USN and its allies have not only many decades of experience of modern naval warfare, they also have the "muscle" built up over decades, against a phase of modern warship construction that has only started to get going in the last decade, with much of the activity happening in the last few years.
So let us go back to what we know.
Currently the PLAN has commissioned Liaoning, its first Fixed Wing Air Craft Carrier and a vessel of a mid weight class. We also are led to understand that Liaoning is helping to train a Naval Aviation Corps for another Four Indigenous Carriers. It is also most likely that these Carriers are going to be based on the Liaoning and of similar size and capability.
This by next decade will give China a fleet of four of five mid size fixed wing carriers. By any standard this would be way to little to send head to head against the eleven Mega Carrier groups of the USN and the lesser groups of its Allies. This means that sending Chinese CVBG's to Cruise all the worlds Oceans and challenging the existing powers is not viable as the PLAN would be poorly supported outnumbered and outgunned by a vastly more experienced set of Navies.
This is clearly not going to be an option.
Instead just look at the other types of Capital ship currently known or believed to be under construction. We see Type 71 LDP's and we here rumours of LHD/LHA construction. These are all Amphibious Assault related Ships. We can also look at the main issues today in both the East and South China Seas and clearly the big issue is unresolved marine territorial disputes, usually involving small Islands. In short the kind of situation which may require and Amphibious Military operation to resolve.
I do not regard it as a leap of faith to connect all of the above and see an immediate future Strategic Objective of the PLAN to establish a number of Amphibious Assault Groups with Organic Air Cover to both promote China's local territorial claims and also to exert pressure on the USN and its regional Allies within the bounds of the 1st and 2nd if not all the way to the 3rd Island Chain, with the overall objective of locking as much of the USN into the Asia Pacific region as possible and reduce US operational capability in others.
For China this approach would be real win win as it would achieve the tying down of the USN, through a process of inception, training and development, that it will need to go through irrespective, if it seriously wishes to gain the experience and have the time to physically build bulk and muscle of a genuinely counterweight navel force for the mid century.
China's Navy is modernising and it is acquiring bulk, but! it is still at the beginning of a journey that its strategic competitors have been walking for a very, very, long time.
This means that the kind of activity which can be undertaken during peace time (global cruises - long distance courtesy visits etc) will be a million miles from those which can be undertaken under conditions of open hostility.
The USN and its allies have not only many decades of experience of modern naval warfare, they also have the "muscle" built up over decades, against a phase of modern warship construction that has only started to get going in the last decade, with much of the activity happening in the last few years.
So let us go back to what we know.
Currently the PLAN has commissioned Liaoning, its first Fixed Wing Air Craft Carrier and a vessel of a mid weight class. We also are led to understand that Liaoning is helping to train a Naval Aviation Corps for another Four Indigenous Carriers. It is also most likely that these Carriers are going to be based on the Liaoning and of similar size and capability.
This by next decade will give China a fleet of four of five mid size fixed wing carriers. By any standard this would be way to little to send head to head against the eleven Mega Carrier groups of the USN and the lesser groups of its Allies. This means that sending Chinese CVBG's to Cruise all the worlds Oceans and challenging the existing powers is not viable as the PLAN would be poorly supported outnumbered and outgunned by a vastly more experienced set of Navies.
This is clearly not going to be an option.
Instead just look at the other types of Capital ship currently known or believed to be under construction. We see Type 71 LDP's and we here rumours of LHD/LHA construction. These are all Amphibious Assault related Ships. We can also look at the main issues today in both the East and South China Seas and clearly the big issue is unresolved marine territorial disputes, usually involving small Islands. In short the kind of situation which may require and Amphibious Military operation to resolve.
I do not regard it as a leap of faith to connect all of the above and see an immediate future Strategic Objective of the PLAN to establish a number of Amphibious Assault Groups with Organic Air Cover to both promote China's local territorial claims and also to exert pressure on the USN and its regional Allies within the bounds of the 1st and 2nd if not all the way to the 3rd Island Chain, with the overall objective of locking as much of the USN into the Asia Pacific region as possible and reduce US operational capability in others.
For China this approach would be real win win as it would achieve the tying down of the USN, through a process of inception, training and development, that it will need to go through irrespective, if it seriously wishes to gain the experience and have the time to physically build bulk and muscle of a genuinely counterweight navel force for the mid century.
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