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HereToSeePics

Junior Member
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Moderator - World Affairs
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Informative article on the current state of NASA's Mars sample return mission:

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Some interesting(if not disappointing/sad) revelations in the article:
  • Cost overrun is double the initial 4.4 billion USD to a forecast of 8-9 billion
  • Not likely to meet the 2028 launch window, even the 2030 launch window is optimistic.
  • Concerns that the current rover (Perseverance) on Mars which is now collecting samples might not survive until the sample return mission craft lands on Mars in 2030+
  • 2023 budget for this mission is 822 million, NASA asking for almost a billion in the 2024 budget request
  • The sample return lander will be the heaviest and more complex lander JPL has built at 3.4 metric tons.
  • 2 proposed backup Mars helicopters to retrieve samples Perseverance has collected.
  • Lots of various project management failures leading to spec, requirement, design changes, etc.
  • Cost of this uber project is sucking money out of other NASA projects that have potentially more scientific and exploration value such as the Venus mission and one to Titan.
 
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O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
HereToSeePics said:
Informative article on the current state of NASA's Mars sample return mission:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Some interesting(if not disappointing/sad) revelations in the article:
  • Cost overrun is double the initial 4.4 billion USD to a forecast of 8-9 billion
  • Not likely to meet the 2028 launch window, even the 2030 launch window is optimistic.
  • Concerns that the current rover (Perseverance) on Mars which is now collecting samples might not survive until the sample return mission craft lands on Mars in 2030+
  • 2023 budget for this mission is 822 million, NASA asking for almost a billion in the 2024 budget request
  • The sample return lander will be the heaviest and more complex lander JPL has built at 3.4 metric tons.
  • 2 proposed backup Mars helicopters to retrieve samples Perseverance has collected.
  • Lots of various project management failures leading to spec, requirement, design changes, etc.
  • Cost of this uber project is sucking money out of other NASA projects that have potentially more scientific and exploration value such as the Venus mission and one to Titan.
Click to expand...
The projected costs doubled as of when the new assesment was made. I wouldn't be surprised if by 2030 the total cost doubles again

Edit: Just saw this..:
Moreover, this only represents the cost to build and test the different components of the mission. It does not include launch costs, operating costs over a five-year period, nor construction of a new sample-receiving facility to handle the rocks and soil from Mars. All told, the total cost of the Mars Sample Return mission is now about $10 billion.
Click to expand...
 
A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
I seem to recall some blowhard saying China was breaking the space treaty regime by looking to build a launch facility outside of China. So, I guess Blue Origin (and the US) are going to, too. smh.

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P

pevade

Junior Member
Registered Member
anzha said:
I seem to recall some blowhard saying China was breaking the space treaty regime by looking to build a launch facility outside of China. So, I guess Blue Origin (and the US) are going to, too. smh.

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Click to expand...
Well clearly that dude is a complete retard lmao.
AFAIK Outer Space Treaty has literally nothing regarding launch sites.
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
HereToSeePics said:
Informative article on the current state of NASA's Mars sample return mission:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Some interesting(if not disappointing/sad) revelations in the article:
  • Cost overrun is double the initial 4.4 billion USD to a forecast of 8-9 billion
  • Not likely to meet the 2028 launch window, even the 2030 launch window is optimistic.
  • Concerns that the current rover (Perseverance) on Mars which is now collecting samples might not survive until the sample return mission craft lands on Mars in 2030+
  • 2023 budget for this mission is 822 million, NASA asking for almost a billion in the 2024 budget request
  • The sample return lander will be the heaviest and more complex lander JPL has built at 3.4 metric tons.
  • 2 proposed backup Mars helicopters to retrieve samples Perseverance has collected.
  • Lots of various project management failures leading to spec, requirement, design changes, etc.
  • Cost of this uber project is sucking money out of other NASA projects that have potentially more scientific and exploration value such as the Venus mission and one to Titan.
Click to expand...
So what happened to drive these costs up?

Zurbuchen said there were "horrendous" technical mistakes made during the early planning phase at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The original concept involved sending everything on a single lander, including a small rover to "fetch" the samples from Perseverance. However, the depth of this analysis was insufficient and included large errors about the mass of the landing legs and other factors. For a time, the plan had to evolve to add a second lander, which increased the cost by more than $1 billion.

So this is the core issue, insufficient concept study before execution (agile in space industry), in plain words, run before being able to walk. Simlilarly SpaceX is doing exactly the same if we look at how the specification of starship evolves and even after multiple rockets are built. Luckily for SpaceX, it is private investors who put money behind Elon Musk, the investors can not complain, or they can but won't make a difference. They can't pull out because they are already hooked. NASA is unluky, the congress will make a big noise of the mistake, and can kill the project like constellation program or shrink the rocket of Ares V to SLS.

This is a perfect example of "controlling the naritive". Engineers everywhere are doing pretty much similar things, it is the front man making their work looks like a success or a failure.
 
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