Movies in General

Breaking: 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' set for biggest weekend ever?
Industry polling has the sequel already past $100 million three weeks out
By: Gregory Ellwood
Monday, Jun 1, 2009
Not necessarily that surprising, but industry polling for Michael Bay's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" is hinting that the highly anticipated sequel is already on a record-setting pace.

Based on the data HitFix was provided, "Revenge of the Fallen" is on track to challenge "The Dark Knight's 5-day record of $203 million last summer. The picture has mammoth interest with moviegoers of all ages and is so strong among younger males that it would easily have a massive opening if Paramount Pictures decided to open it tomorrow. Additionally, the overall numbers for men are off the charts with 3/4's of all respondents saying they are more than interested in seeing the movie.

In terms of record setting openings, it's worth noting "Revenge of the Fallen" debuts on a Wednesday while "Dark Knight's" record run began with a Friday (or Thursday night) debut. Comparably, the largest Wednesday 5-day gross on record is 2004's "Spider-Man 2's" $152 million which "Revenge of the Fallen" should easily shatter.

The first "Transformers" opened on Thursday, July 3, 2007 and took in $98.7 million over the 4-day Fourth of July holiday weekend. The picture grossed $319 million in the U.S. alone and made Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox household names. Both stars are back for the second installment and face little competition until Johnny Depp and Christian Bale arrive with Michael Mann's "Public Enemies" and Fox rolls out "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" on July 1. "Enemies" may be rated R, but the combo of the period thriller and the appeal of yet another family friendly "Ice Age" sequel could knock "Revenge" from the top spot.

A massive run for "Transformers" would be another gold star in Paramount's summer release schedule. Last month's "Star Trek" currently is the highest grossing film of the year with $209 million. The J.J. Abrams reboot is also one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. Whether "Revenge of the Fallen" can duplicate that feat remains to be seen.

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bd popeye said:

Never seen Cloverfield. But I was referring to the "idea" of monsters chasing the good guy/hero is a rip-off. All in all I enjoyed the film.

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AssassinsMace said:

The way they estimate final box office totals early on is to take the first weekend receipts (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) then times them by three. The total usually ends up around that ballpark. The only movie that really screwed up that formula was Titanic where box office actually grew more week after week for something like at least four weeks in a row. Star Trek made close to $80 million opening weekend. So it's going to make around $240 million domestic. Transformers is probably going to make more.

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crobato said:

You should have watched Cloverfield. It was an attempt for a realistic take when a giant monster attacks a major US city, New York.

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Alien franchise I think needs a new movie, though not a reboot.

I like to see Tron remade. Its one of the most prophetic movies ever made.

Another prophetic movie would be War Games. Remember that movie about where a master computer controls the nuclear arsenal and decides autonomously to go to war?

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AssassinsMace said:

It was just reported Ridley Scott is back to doing an Alien movie but this one's a prequel and probably doesn't involve Sigourney Weaver.

TRON 2.0 is being shot right now.

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Wargames was remade but went direct to video within the last year.

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