You can calculate the orbit all you want but you still have to track the satellite and steer the kill vehicle toward the target while the target is speeding at 18000mile/hr So your contention of calculating the target make it easy to hit the target is irrelevant.
ECM is nothing new all the world anti ship missile has to have built in ECCM to counter ECM.
Firing flare won't fool Imaging infra red sensor. The processing power and software development of ECCM can differentiate between stationary chaff and moving object. Jammer or home on the jam are technique to beat the ECM. So Counter measure is not silver bullet against near peer rival.
Plus who know what kind of sensor ASBM has on board, it could be dual seeker with midsourse update from satellite, And how far can the carrier move in an hour at 30 knot ?. I bet no more than 100km which is well within the killzone of your average Anti ship missile sensor
Again I quote Mark Stoke research on Chinese ECM
Chinese research and development into counter-surveillance [fanzhencha] systems is centered on electronic countermeasures, stealth, decoys, and fast burn motors. From China's perspective, passive and active electronic countermeasures (ECM) are a fundamental yet effective means of ensuring ballistic missiles are able to reach their targets. Chinese missile engineers also have been studying on-board jammers for more than a decade. 131 Development of jammers and electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) is of sufficient importance to warrant a research institute solely dedicated to space and missile electronic warfare.132 Chinese literature cites use of passive electronic countermeasures, such as chaff, to confuse enemy ground radar systems, such UEWR systems. 133 Measures under investigation include electronic and infrared countermeasures on board reentry vehicles, as well as carrying out hard kills against enemy theater missile defense (TMD) radars through the use of anti-radiation missiles.134 Under the 863-409 program, the Nanjing University of Science and Technology was awarded a contract for developing space vehicle, warhead MMW and IR
passive countermeasures, including use of expanded graphite.135
Counter-intercept [fanlanzai] measures seek to deny missile defense interceptors the ability to properly engage their targets. These include multiple maneuvering reentry vehicles and hardening or spinning of ballistic missiles. China has had the capability to develop and deploy a multiple reentry vehicle system for many years, as well as maneuverable reentry vehicles that can complicate missile defense tracking. Maneuvering is also essential for terminal
guidance packages.136
In addition to the techniques described above, a range of other technical and operational countermeasures also is under consideration. These include trajectory techniques, indigenous missile defense development, ASAT development, and possibly multi-axis strikes, including use of submarine launch ASBMs. One article addressing missile defenses argues that it is difficult in general to defend against a
Possible Dual seeker mode
Beyond the DF-21C, a former high ranking aerospace industry official opined that an ASBM would share many of the same guidance technologies the ASAT system that was tested in January 2007.113 Basic technologies for the ASAT KKV developed under the 863 Program (specifically the 863-409 and 863-801 focus areas) include a mid-wave infrared seeker, couple charged devices (CCDs), all-digital fiber optic gyroscope, major simulation facilities, millimeter
wave (MMW) seeker, and diamond coating technologies.114
The development of MMW technology is a national R&D priority, and is a likely candidate for ASBM terminal guidance package.115 Most likely operating in the Ka-Band portion of the frequency spectrum, MMW terminal guidance systems are compact, can achieve high resolution, and have a range of dual use applications. Unlike side-looking SAR systems, a
The anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond
MMW radar seeker can track targets at nose on or high angles of attack. On the civil side, MMW sensors are increasingly being used for collision avoidance systems in the auto industry. Ranging in frequency between 30 to 300GHz, MMW technology also is used air collision avoidance systems. At the same time, MMW technologies have become common in air defense and anti-ship missile systems. MMW seekers are perhaps best known for "hit-to-kill" capabilities associated with the terminal missile defenses, such as the Patriot PAC-3 missile. MMW also is used for robotics, concealed weapons detection, broadband communications satellites, and terrain mapping radar.
Chinese aerospace engineers have been refining technologies for developing advanced MMW seekers for missile terminal guidance.116 The principles associated with intercepting a target the size of a mini-van traveling above Mach 20 and hitting an aircraft carrier are similar, except that the aircraft carrier is a much larger and slower moving target. Priorities in developing a MMW terminal seeker appear to include miniaturizing a high powered amplifier.117 Engineers are developing hardware-in-the-loop simulations and testing MMW
missile seekers in "realistic flight scenarios."118
Imaging Infrared and Laser Guidance. MMW terminal guidance on ballistic missiles often is discussed in the context of an integrated MMW/IIR seeker.119 IIR seekers offer significant precision, and are critical for striking moving targets while traveling at high velocities.120 Aircraft carriers have a prominent infrared signature when contrasted with the ocean background. In order to minimize weight of the missile, an uncooled infrared seeker would likely be preferred as a cooled infrared seeker requires a more complex cryogenic assembly to cool the focal plane array. In addition to IIR seekers, engineers in the aerospace industry and Second Artillery have explored the feasibility of a laser terminal guidance system.121 The
Second Artillery has completed at least one technical requirements assessment on a CO2
coherent laser imaging radar for ballistic missile terminal guidance.122