US doesn't have FOBS capability, so they can't avoid China's launch on warning defenses. Furthermore, US doesn't have HGV so the missile response time for China will be in the range of hours to a dozen hours, instead of less than an hour.
Majority of the US nuclear arsenal are based from ballistic missile submarines and strategic bombers, not land-based missile silos.
Besides, ballistic missiles travel at speeds between Mach 15-20 or more, which is basically the fastest man-made object can reasonably travel with current technology. They won't need hours to reach China from CONUS - one hour is more than enough.
Then there's the Ohio and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, which can sail pretty much anywhere around the world's oceans. If those subs launch their SLBMs from the Arctic Ocean, Indian Ocean and/or the WestPac, China will have even less time to respond.
Plus there's the B-52, B-1, B-2, B-21 strategic bombers, which can appear pretty much from anywhere and at anytime. How are you going to know if those bombers carry bombs and/or missiles that have conventional or nuclear warheads?
Honestly if there is a nuclear ww3, I think the way it would start is China hitting first with airburst nukes from FOBS. It wouldn't necessarily be thousands of nukes, maybe just a dozen in order to EMP the whole continental US.
The nukes could come from anywhere (not only China has access to low orbit), so NK, Pakistan, terrorists whatever would be blamed in the immediate aftermath. There also wouldn't be too many deaths, but within days, society will collapse due to all electronic networks being knocked out.
Lol no. The US has a multitude of space, land, air and sea-based early warning systems with pretty much full and constant coverage of the entire globe. Those systems (especially space-based ones) can detect ballistic missile launches as soon as the missiles leave the ground. How are you going to hide that?
Then, how many countries in the world has ballistic missiles? And out of those countries, how many of them have FOBS capabilities? There is no way to hide the identity of the launcher once the details of said missile has been established.
FOBS can only be used to increase unpredictability and reduce enemy's response readiness, not to disguise the launcher's identity and location.
