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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
ZeEa5KPul said:
Ideally, yes. Taiwan is not going anywhere and there's nothing compelling China to move soon. Peaceful reunification (at least willingly) is dead and buried and the Taiwanese are maximally hostile to the PRC, so armed reunification is already baked in. The only question that remains is how China can retake Taiwan (and, more importantly, expel the US from the region) as effectively as possible and with lowest cost. It's clear to me that the farther in the future China delays its move, the more likely the outcome will be favourable since the balance of power is shifting toward it by the day.

Now, China doesn't have the luxury of just waiting around without a care. As they say, the enemy gets a vote. Therefore, China must be ready at all times to respond militarily to any real crossing of its red lines: Taiwan declaring de jure independence or developing nuclear weapons. Absent those scenarios, China shouldn't launch a war before it's reasonably sure of decisive victory in the broad sense I outlined above (defeating the US throughout the Pacific, not just taking Taiwan).
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Which brings us back to our original issue: assuming the US doesn't wait until China becomes way more powerful than it is, and engineers a TW independence event, should China refrain from AR or still launch a pre-emptive strike on US forces?
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Brigadier
Registered Member
solarz said:
Which brings us back to our original issue: assuming the US doesn't wait until China becomes way more powerful than it is, and engineers a TW independence event, should China refrain from AR or still launch a pre-emptive strike on US forces?
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If the US engineers a TW independence event then that's just a pretext for it to go to war with China, so China will face US forces whether it wants to or not. That isn't what the US is doing now, all of the garbage it's spewing is prefaced with "if China attacks", which China won't do.

To forestall the scenario you described, China needs to accelerate its nuclear buildup and sprint to parity with the US as quickly as possible.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
FriedButter said:
That statement is quite a big one.




An unconditional priority.
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Throughout history, the northern kingdoms beyond the great wall have had a complex relationship with southern China. In times of weakness, the northern kingdoms attacked and sometimes ruled southern China. In times of strength, the northern kingdoms paid tribute and occasionally probed Chinese strength. And when the northern kingdoms as tributaries were threatened by the less sinicized barbarians, China would aid them in repelling barbarian attack.
 
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