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Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member

I'm not a mod but just so you know, demographics thread are still not allowed. jli88 didn't exactly give them a good reason to reconsider.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The biggest issue with India is that the country has a LOT of structural problems and the political class is not willing to do the sacrifices necessary to solved them. Back then China and India had big populations but India population is more fluent in English, it should had been a not brainer to outsource manufacturing to India instead of China but didn´t happen.

I don´t see the current Modi´s government willing to do the sacrifices. What is going to happen when pollution in India get so bad that Indian cities become unlivable, is the government willing to trade economic growth for less pollution? Are they are willing to invest in quality infrastructure? Deal with corruption? because as the GDP increase, so will corruption. Phasing out inefficient industries for more efficient ones? Trade inefficient high speed growth for slower quality growth? What if big bubbles appear in the economy, how they will deal with those? And the list go on.

I don´t know if is a cultural issue or is currently the effect of Modi´s government propaganda, for some reason it seems Indians tend to overestimate themselves and are less critical of themselves while Chinese and East Asians in general tend underestimate themselves and be harsher critics themselves. That is why is impossible to see a Indian version of Gordon Chang or the stereotypical memefied Chinese female Western Journalist.
 

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member

I'm not a mod but just so you know, demographics thread are still not allowed. jli88 didn't exactly give them a good reason to reconsider.
This discussion primarily focuses on the impact of labor on productivity, not demographics, so there's no need to be so sensitive about it.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Why so anti-India? The India hate on this forum is sometimes bordering on racist. It is in fact prudent for China to watch out for India. India will have a huge labour advantage over China in coming decades. Even if they are able to use it half as efficiently as China, they will be on par.
Its funny that people ask why is China so anti-India and not why is India so anti China first. Makes you wonder what kind of person who asks this is like.

I find that messed up considering this:

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India has a lot more to answer for when it comes to racism.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Automation has existed since the industrial revolution, it makes labor more productive, however labor is still able to find its way out if it has any competitive advantage over machines.

Also, a completely automated world, where labor is no longer relevant at all, is a nightmare for China, because then natural resource endowment will matter more, an area where China is significantly behind the West which has 4 times the land mass of China, and in general world domination.

1. It also matters as to who designs and produces the latest robots.
On that front, the Chinese supply chain will likely be dominant.

2. Remember that natural resources require energy to be transformed into goods. And the vast amount of energy requirement is not from extracting the resource, but its transformation into a final product.

A completely automated world means a world of abundance. We would have a situation where robots can produce practically unlimited quantities of solar panels (which are produced from sand+electricity). Unlimited electricity plus robots means unlimited goods and services. Only a small fraction of China's landmass would be required for these solar panels. Solar electricity is typically 3x cheaper than coal today.
 

A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why so anti-India? The India hate on this forum is sometimes bordering on racist. It is in fact prudent for China to watch out for India. India will have a huge labour advantage over China in coming decades. Even if they are able to use it half as efficiently as China, they will be on par.
I mean India is literally obsessed with China and constantly wants war with China. The obvious threat is that they claim all of Tibet as part of Akhand Bharat in part because Dalai Lama sold Tibet to India. Aside from that they claim of Chinese culture as Indian so of course we would see India as a threat. BTW buddhism is not an Indian religion but Nepalese and since a good chuck of Nepal is Sino Tibetan we have a stronger claim to it than India ever does.
 

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
My view is simple: if India cannot transform its large population advantage into a high-quality labor force, it is destined for failure in its future development.

Your view leans towards the idea that a large population inevitably leads to more economic activity.
Ultimately, our underlying logic differs. I believe economic development primarily depends on production, while you believe it primarily depends on consumption—a perception influenced by Western financial capitalism.

I cannot determine which viewpoint is more correct; you can consider it yourself.

My point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy.


A major reason for Japan's decline was its abandonment of innovation. Following the bubble economy, the nation adopted conservative industrial policies, avoiding risks and revolutionary innovations while focusing solely on hardware manufacturing—an area where it had already achieved mastery. To protect social employment, it propped up numerous inefficient zombie companies.

Regarding your earlier question, population decline and aging may lead to reduced consumption. However, due to rising per capita wealth and improvements in distribution systems, a shrinking population can still sustain high consumption levels. We see that over 300 million Americans generate enormous purchasing power. If China successfully implements distribution reforms in the future, it will significantly boost ordinary residents' consumption. Moreover, China remains a major exporter. As long as China maintains strong competitiveness in international markets, India will struggle to compete with China in the free market.

Japan's decline also is a result of demographics. The older generation who was comfortable in analog systems never used, or realized the importance of digital systems, computation, internet etc. They were not savvy enough. Japan was the originator of the idea of "robots/automation being the solution for demographic challenge." It didn't work out for them.

I agree a shrinking population can support increasing consumption, but you need a major labor friendly push for that. Current Chinese thinking is too conservative, and has leaned on wage and labor suppression rather than enabling higher wages, implementing labor laws etc.

Also, regarding international markets, China (with a war coming over taiwan) will definitely lose most of the international markets, definitely the West.

The biggest issue with India is that the country has a LOT of structural problems and the political class is not willing to do the sacrifices necessary to solved them. Back then China and India had big populations but India population is more fluent in English, it should had been a not brainer to outsource manufacturing to India instead of China but didn´t happen.

I don´t see the current Modi´s government willing to do the sacrifices. What is going to happen when pollution in India get so bad that Indian cities become unlivable, is the government willing to trade economic growth for less pollution? Are they are willing to invest in quality infrastructure? Deal with corruption? because as the GDP increase, so will corruption. Phasing out inefficient industries for more efficient ones? Trade inefficient high speed growth for slower quality growth? What if big bubbles appear in the economy, how they will deal with those? And the list go on.

I don´t know if is a cultural issue or is currently the effect of Modi´s government propaganda, for some reason it seems Indians tend to overestimate themselves and are less critical of themselves while Chinese and East Asians in general tend underestimate themselves and be harsher critics themselves. That is why is impossible to see a Indian version of Gordon Chang or the stereotypical memefied Chinese female Western Journalist.

All valid criticisms.

But my point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy. India may get its act together, higher wealth may lead to people demanding cleanliness, who knows.


I mean India is literally obsessed with China and constantly wants war with China. The obvious threat is that they claim all of Tibet as part of Akhand Bharat in part because Dalai Lama sold Tibet to India. Aside from that they claim of Chinese culture as Indian so of course we would see India as a threat. BTW buddhism is not an Indian religion but Nepalese and since a good chuck of Nepal is Sino Tibetan we have a stronger claim to it than India ever does.

Having a racist debasement attitude towards India is different from seeing India as a threat.

India is a definite potential threat to China. This is also the reason why it's unwise for China to lose more people when it is facing against the combined West + India + other countries like Phillipines, Vietnam, Mongolia etc.
 

PopularScience

Senior Member
Registered Member
My point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy.




Japan's decline also is a result of demographics. The older generation who was comfortable in analog systems never used, or realized the importance of digital systems, computation, internet etc. They were not savvy enough. Japan was the originator of the idea of "robots/automation being the solution for demographic challenge." It didn't work out for them.

I agree a shrinking population can support increasing consumption, but you need a major labor friendly push for that. Current Chinese thinking is too conservative, and has leaned on wage and labor suppression rather than enabling higher wages, implementing labor laws etc.

Also, regarding international markets, China (with a war coming over taiwan) will definitely lose most of the international markets, definitely the West.



All valid criticisms.

But my point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy. India may get its act together, higher wealth may lead to people demanding cleanliness, who knows.




Having a racist debasement attitude towards India is different from seeing India as a threat.

India is a definite potential threat to China. This is also the reason why it's unwise for China to lose more people when it is facing against the combined West + India + other countries like Phillipines, Vietnam, Mongolia etc.
China will fight with unitree soldiers
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
I mean India is literally obsessed with China and constantly wants war with China. The obvious threat is that they claim all of Tibet as part of Akhand Bharat in part because Dalai Lama sold Tibet to India. Aside from that they claim of Chinese culture as Indian so of course we would see India as a threat. BTW buddhism is not an Indian religion but Nepalese and since a good chuck of Nepal is Sino Tibetan we have a stronger claim to it than India ever does.

I never had the chance to post this. So for knowledge sake I would like to share this with SDF on the decline of Buddhism in India. Its written by an Indian too so they can't use that as an excuse.

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Why Buddhism Declined in India
Buddhism’s decline had begun in the second half of the first millennium. Xuanzang had already noticed its slide in the 7th century, and that trend accelerated in the centuries ahead. I think there are five key reasons for the decline of Buddhism in the land of its birth.

First, there had long been a competitive and hostile dynamic between Brahminism and Buddhism, mainly over three things: funding, followers, and ideology. The Chinese monks have recorded frequent and often bitter conflicts between Buddhist monks and Brahmins. Xuanzang reported a failed plot in which 500 Brahmins had hired a killer to assassinate emperor Harsha, because they were jealous and resentful of his ‘excessive’ patronising of Buddhism. Centuries earlier, the grammarian Patanjali had himself compared the animosity between the Brahmins and Shramanas to that between the snake and the mongoose.

Sometimes kings took sides in these battles too. In the 6th century, the Hun ruler Mihirakula, a Shaivite, destroyed stupas, monasteries, and killed monks in the northwest. According to Xuanzang, Shashanka of Bengal, a Brahminical king, ‘slandered the religion of the Buddha’ and raided and ‘cut down the Bodhi tree’, ‘burnt it with fire’ and destroyed the monasteries around it. There are many such stories. In short, Brahminical hostility was a major factor in the demise of Buddhism. Their conflicts appear in sculpture too. For instance, in the site museum at Nalanda, we see Buddhist Tantric deities trampling Brahminical gods, like Trailokya Vijaya trampling Shiva and Gauri, or Aparajita trampling Ganesh. They come from Buddhism’s waning centuries and seem like desperate attempts to signal their religious superiority to lay people.

Second, in the early centuries of Buddhism, its clergy had earned its living by relying on common people, exchanging religious services for donations of food, clothes, or money. But centuries of royal patronage had reduced their dependence on ordinary people. As their needs were taken care of by the royals, the monks reduced their contact with the lay public. They no longer needed the public to earn a living. They began retreating into walled, gated monasteries and grew self-absorbed in their academic and personal quests. As they abandoned the public, the public returned the favour. Lay Buddhists who didn’t care much for abstract theological differences, began shifting to rival religious orders with similar modes of worship. So the funding by the royals turned out to be a very mixed blessing indeed.

Third, between the 7th to 10th centuries, profound changes occurred in the Indian religious landscape. Like the rise of Brahminical orthodoxy, led by Adi Shankara, and the emergence of Bhakti, or mystical devotionalism, in south India. One could say that there was a big churn in the religious market, and more satisfying products were turning up. Buddhism was one of the losers, partly because it was a more sober and austere faith, and partly because Brahminical Hinduism had more cleverly appropriated folk beliefs and practices. It had embraced popular features of Buddhism too, such as monastic orders and stopping animal sacrifices; it had even declared the Buddha as the 9th Avatar of Vishnu. As a business major might say today, this reduced Buddhism’s USP [i.e., unique selling proposition].

Fourth, with declining followers for Buddhism, the kings of the period began shifting to an exclusively Brahminical ideology, and this set in a vicious spiral for Buddhism. Funding for its monasteries began drying up. Its last great royal patrons were the Palas of Bengal. They were followed by the Sena dynasty of Bengal in the 12th century, whose Brahminical kings actively persecuted Buddhist monks. Many monks fled south. On the eve of the Turko-Persian invasions around 1200, Buddhism had vanished from everywhere except isolated pockets in eastern and southern India and the western Himalayas.

And fifth, with Indian Buddhism already on life-support by the late 12th century, the final blow was delivered by the Turks, who finished off its last few, barely-functioning monasteries. But even this was not as black and white, or as dramatic, as many think it is. The popular belief that Nalanda was destroyed by the invader Bakhtiar Khilji (in the 1190s), is not supported by historical evidence. Nalanda was still going in 1234–36, patronized by king Buddhasena of Bodh Gaya, when Dharmasvamin, a monk from Tibet, studied there. Rather than a dramatic final end, Nalanda continued its long phase of decay and depopulation for decades after Khilji’s death (1206).

Buddhism Vanishes From Public Memory
So the decline of Buddhism had many causes, although both British colonisers and Hindu nationalists, for their own convenient reasons, blamed it on Turko-Persian invasions, which was in fact a minor cause. As Buddhism dwindled over time, its sites were either abandoned, destroyed, or converted mostly into Brahminical sites, and a minority into Islamic sites. Even the Mahabodhi temple in Bodh Gaya was turned into a Shiva temple. Buddhist texts and artifacts were wiped out. Except in the western Himalayas, Buddhism practically vanished from India and its public memory. By the early colonial period, Indians knew nothing of Ashoka or his edicts or the Sanchi stupa. It’s hard to believe, but Indians even forgot that a man called the Buddha, the founder of a major world religion, had ever existed in their past!

It’s often said that ancient Indians were not interested in history, that their accounts of the past are inseparable from myth. Such accounts are indeed common but they’re not the whole story. Pali chronicles from Sri Lanka suggest that Indian Buddhists had a much stronger tradition of writing history than the Brahmins, so the loss of Buddhism was a major setback for Indian self-knowledge. And when Buddhism disappeared from India, its texts disappeared with it, leaving a deep Brahminical bias in the surviving records. It was only in the 19th century that Indians rediscovered Nalanda and their Buddhist heritage through archaeology, texts that survived in foreign lands, the accounts of these Chinese monks, and other sources.

But Buddhism wasn’t the only casualty of the new political-religious churning in the latter half of the first millennium. Other profound changes were also happening. In the next episode, I’ll take you to a very different setting in central India … the amazing temple town of Khajuraho, and a major historical site where Indians happily combined erotica with religion. See you next time!


TL;DR Indians/Brahmins did it to themselves. The whole Muslims destroyed it is an overstated convenient excuse. They chose to ditch it. So Indians trying to reclaim it for clout purposes when they chose to abandon it in the first place seems rather shameless.
 

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
My point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy.
Some African countries have even higher birth rates, so according to your logic, Africa's economy should have already surpassed that of the US and Europe!
Stop repeating the claim that birth rates contribute to national economic development. If population cannot be genuinely converted into productivity, it's a burden!
Listen less to the nonsense spouted by those so-called Western economic experts! If their theories were truly effective, the US and Europe wouldn't have been so thoroughly outmaneuvered by China in economic development!
 
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